Impacts of inaccurate exit polls

Source: The post Impacts of inaccurate exit polls has been created, based on the article “Exit exit polls” published in “Indian express” on 5th June 2024.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2– Polity-election

Context: The article discusses how exit polls, which predict election results, were wrong in predicting a big win for the BJP-led NDA in India. These incorrect predictions affected the stock market and raised concerns about the accuracy and credibility of pollsters and media.

For detailed information on exit polls read Article 1, Article 2

What happened with the exit polls?

1. Exit polls inaccurately predicted a significant majority for the BJP-led NDA in the recent elections, estimating around 400 seats.
2. This overestimation influenced the financial markets, with the BSE Sensex initially surging by 2,507 points, or 3.39%, due to optimistic investor sentiment.
3. Reality clashed with predictions when actual election results were announced, showing a stark difference from the polls, causing the stock market to plunge by 5.74%.
4. Similar inaccuracies in exit polls have occurred in the past, such as in the Lok Sabha elections in 2004, and the Bihar and Chhattisgarh assembly elections in 2015 and 2023, respectively.

What issues do these inaccuracies highlight?

1. The inaccuracies in exit polls highlight concerns about the sampling methods used, which might not accurately represent the entire voting population.
2. Issues of potential underrepresentation of certain groups in the polls suggest that significant voter segments might be overlooked, affecting the accuracy of results.
3. The impact of flawed exit polls extends to financial markets, as evidenced by a stock market surge and subsequent crash based on the initial predictions and actual outcomes.
4. These repeated discrepancies suggest a need for greater transparency and scrutiny in how pollsters conduct and report their findings.

What should be done?

1. Pollsters should reevaluate their sampling methods to ensure they more accurately reflect the diverse voter population.
2. There is a need for stricter disclosure norms concerning the funding of poll organizations to prevent potential conflicts of interest and ensure unbiased results.
3. The repeated inaccuracies call for a thorough internal review and possibly external oversight to regain public and market trust.

Question for practice:

Examine the impact of inaccurate exit polls on both financial markets and public trust in India’s recent elections.