There has been a significant increase of trust in India’s weather forecasting among the general public, due to considerable improvements in the accuracy of forecasts. This has led to an increase in demands for more accurate and specific weather forecasting in India, particularly in light of the increasing instances of extreme weather events, and climate change induced catastrophic disasters. To serve the growing need for accurate weather forecasting, the government is planning a major upgrade of the IMD’s existing capabilities.
In this article, we will delve into the developments in weather forecasting infrastructure, the need for it and its success stories. We will also look at the challenges in prediction of accurate weather conditions and the way forward.
What has been the historical development of weather forecasting in India?
| Ancient Periods | a. In ancient India, weather prediction was largely based on astrology, observation of natural phenomena, and folklore. b. Varahamihira’s classical work, Brihatsamhita, provides clear evidence of deep knowledge of atmospheric processes at the time. c. Kautilya’s Arthashastra contains records of scientific measurement of rainfall and its application to the country’s revenue and relief operations. |
| Colonial Period | a. Establishment of the India Meteorological Department (IMD)- Modern weather forecasting in India began during the British colonial period. The IMD was established in 1875 by Sir Henry Blanford. Its primary aim was prediction of monsoons, which were crucial for the agrarian economy. b. Understanding of monsoons- IMD made significant progress in understanding monsoons under Gilbert Walker, who was appointed as head of IMD in 1903. Walker’s identification of large-scale oscillations in atmospheric circulations, laid the foundation for modern comprehension of the El Niño phenomenon. |
| Post-Independence Period | a. Expansion of IMD- The IMD has expanded its network of weather stations across the country. b. Introduction of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)- These models, which are based on complex mathematical equations, allowed for more accurate and timely forecasts. c. Satellites and Doppler Radars- INSAT System was launched in 1982, which marked a new era in weather forecasting. INSAT provided real-time data on weather patterns, helping to improve the accuracy of forecasts, especially for cyclones. |
| 21st Century Developments | a. Monsoon Mission in 2012- It aimed at improving the long-range monsoon forecasts that are crucial for the government’s economic planning. b. Expansion of IMD capabilities- New initiatives were launched by the IMD to improve the observation network, install high-performance computing systems, deploy sophisticated instruments like Doppler radars, and develop better computer simulation models. |
| Read More- 150 years of IMD- Significance and Challenges- Explained Pointwise |
What is the significance of weather forecasting system in India?
1. Agriculture and Food Security- India’s agriculture is heavily reliant on the monsoon. Monsoon provides about 70-80% of the country’s annual rainfall. Hence, accurate weather forecasting helps in planning the agricultural activities such as sowing, irrigation, harvesting, crop management and pest and disease control.
2. Disaster Management and Mitigation- India’s vulnerability to various disasters such as cyclones, floods, heatwaves, cold waves, and droughts. Accurate weather forecasting helps in mitigating the negative impact of these disasters.
3. Reduction of economic losses-
a. The destruction of agricultural crops causes due to vagaries of weather like droughts, less monsoon, cause huge economic loss to the agriculturalists and leads to rural distress.
b. The energy sector, like the hydropower and solar power, is sensitive to weather conditions. Accurate forecasting supports the efficient management of energy resources, ensuring consistent supply and reducing economic losses.
4. Construction and Urban Planning- Weather forecasts are vital for planning construction activities, particularly during the monsoon and winter seasons. These help in avoiding delays, ensuring worker safety, and minimizing construction costs.
5. Transport and Logistics- Accurate weather predictions are crucial for the safety and efficiency of road, rail and sea transportation. For ex- Fog forecasts in winter help in management of flight schedules.
6. Public Health and Safety- Weather predictions help in the improvement of public health and safety. For ex- Forecasts of extreme temperatures help in the prevention of Heat-related Illnesses like heat-stroke.
7. Water Resource Management- Weather forecasts are essential for managing water resources like Irrigation planning and reservoir management.
What have been the successes of Weather Forecasting in India?
1. Improved cyclone forecast system- The timely and accurate forecasts of cyclones in India has led to the establishment of a reliable response and evacuation mechanism. For ex- 2013 Cyclone Phailin’s and 2020 Cyclone Amphan’s accurate predictions has avoided the loss of thousands of human lives.
2. Monsoon prediction- The long-range monsoon forecasts have a near cent percent accuracy over the last decade.
3. Weather Forecasting for transportation– Winter Fog Experiment (WIFEX) developed by IMD has helped in the dissemination of fog information, which is used by airlines and passengers to plan their travel.
4. Air Quality Monitoring– IMD’s SAFAR system is being used to monitor air pollution level in major cities such as Delhi.
5. Enhanced India’s global reputation– IMD has been recognised as one of the six Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). IMD has contributed to the United Nations’ ‘Early Warning for All’ programme regarding climate change.
What are the reasons for increased demands for more accurate weather predictions in India?
1. Increased frequency of extreme weather events- The extreme weather events like cloudburst, intense heatwaves, which usually occurred once in a few decades, now threaten people’s lives and livelihoods throughout the year.
2. Increase in climate induced vagaries- Climate-induced vagaries have triggered disasters like the recent landslides in Wayanad and lake bursts in Sikkim and Uttarakhand last year. This has caught the administrators off guard. Hence the need for more robust and accurate weather prediction has increased in India.
3. Need for data at the hyper-local levels- The need of weather predictions at the hyper-local has increased in recent times. For ex- Farmers, municipal authorities, and office and school goers demand forecasts about copious rainfall at hyper-local levels, to plan their daily activities.
4. Increased intensity of rainfall- The increase in incidents of heavy localised rainfall has further increased demands for improving the accuracy of weather predictions in India. For ex- Kalyanapattinum in Tamil Nadu’s Thoothukudi district experiencing an entire season’s rainfall in a day.
What are the challenges with Weather Forecasting in India?
1. Greater variability in weather phenomena- The forecasting of weather in the tropical countries like India, is more challenging than in areas that are farther from the equator, due to greater variability in weather phenomena.
2. Challenges of hyper-locality- IMD’s current weather forecast ability is spread over a 12km X 12km area. This grid, which is larger than most Indian cities helps in forecasting of likelihood of rainfall over the city. However, the lack of 3km X 3km grid, hinders the ability of monsoon prediction at the hyperlocal level.
3. Inherent uncertainities in weather forecasting- The science of weather forecasting also suffers from ineherent uncertainities. The greater the precision of weather forecasting, the greater is the uncertainty. Also the earlier the weather forecast, the lesser will be its precision.
4. Lack of data Assimilation and Modelling- Incorporation of diverse and accurate data into numerical weather prediction models is another major challenge to the weather prediction in India. For Ex- IMD’s challenge in assimilation of satellite data during the 2015 Chennai floods which impacted the accuracy of predictions.
5. Outdated and insufficient observational infrastructure- IMD also grapples with the challenge of outdated and insufficient observational infrastructure like the early warning systems. For Ex- Failure of early warning systems in disseminating information about the 2013 Uttarakhand floods.
6. Collaboration with neighbouring countries- IMD also faces the challenge of lack of enhanced collaboration in data sharing related to transboundary air pollution and shared water resources with the meteorological departments of China and Pakistan
What should be the Way Forward?
1. Hyper local analysis- The IMD must should aim at developing 3 km x 3 km grids, and should eventually aim to develop hyper-local forecasts for 1 km x 1 km areas.
2. Tailoring to local specifics- India’s weather forecasting system should aim at developing computer simulated models tailored to local specifics. The data collectors should narrow their focus to district, block, panchayat, village and ward and street-levels.
3. Integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML)- Incorporation of AI and ML algorithms to analyse vast amounts of meteorological data to improve prediction models and enhance the accuracy of weather forecasts.
4. Academic and Research Collaboration- The met department should tap into research conducted in universities and institutions. For ex- Collaboration between IMD and IIT Bombay which has developed cutting-edge computing technologies this year to predict rainfall in the city with greater accuracy than the IMD.
5. Infrastructural upgrades- The focus must be on infrastructure upgradation in terms of metereological aspects like installation of ocean observation systems, high-resolution earth observation satellites and optimum utilisation of Doppler radars in the eastern and northeastern regions of the country.
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