Source: The post Middle East wars shape oil markets and fragile peace has been created, based on the article “When peace is a pause” published in “The Indian Express” on 7th July 2025
UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.
Context: This article reflects on five decades of Middle East conflicts and their impact on oil markets and global geopolitics, as experienced firsthand by the author. The narrative traces personal involvement in the petroleum sector and examines how wars, driven by individual ambitions, often ignore deeper humanitarian and ideological roots.
Personal Encounters with Oil and War
- Origins of Interest and Early Career: The author’s interest in petroleum began during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, which led to a four-fold surge in oil pricesand global stagflation. This led to a thesis on Iran’s barter trade and a job with Phillips Petroleum in London in 1980.
- Iranian Revolution and US Involvement: The 1979 Iranian Revolution doubled oil prices again. The Iran-Iraq War followed soon after. In 1988, the U.S. sank an Iranian frigate during Operation Praying Mantis, a reminder of the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global crude oil and one-third of LNG pass.
- On Ground During the Gulf War: In 1990, during Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, the author was working with Shell in London. He was sent to the war zone to help evacuate staff from a refinery in Saudi Arabia. He witnessed panic driven by rumours and fear, gaining deep emotional insight into the chaos of war.
- Impact of 2003 Iraq Invasion: In 2003, the U.S. invaded Iraq citing weapons of mass destruction, later dismissed by the 9/11 Commission. Although based in India, the author saw the effects as oil prices crossed $100, forcing the Indian government to reintroduce fuel price controls, ending Shell India’s retail ambitions.
Current Reflections on Regional Volatility
- Observing the Fifth Major Conflict: Now a distant observer, the author notes the fifth major conflict in the region. Given continuous unrest, the line between “major” and “minor” wars has become blurred.
- Unanswered Questions and Uncertain Stability: Current tensions raise unresolved questions: the status of Iran’s nuclear program, the possibility of choking Hormuz, Netanyahu’s goals, Trump’s response, and China’s intentions.
- Limits of Logical Analysis: The author avoids predicting outcomes. History shows that decisions often arise from autocratic ambitions, not strategic logic. Leaders may invoke ideals like freedom or justice, but such narratives are often just optics.
Recurring Patterns in Conflict Resolution
- Fragile Resolutions Without Root Solutions: All five wars ended through diplomacy or stalemate, yet core issues were never addressed. The 1973 ceasefire ignored Palestinian refugees, and the Iran-Iraq war ended only due to mutual exhaustion.
- Superficial Endings of Gulf Wars: Both Gulf wars ended after military goals were met, but religious, geopolitical, and ideological divides remained untouched.
Nuclear Focus and Western Blind Spots
- Obsession with Proliferation: Western nations now focus on nuclear weapons falling into the wrong hands. This concern is valid.
- Ignored Humanitarian Consequences: However, by neglecting humanitarian crises like Gaza, the West may be fueling future instability. Historical patterns suggest that such neglect feeds resentment and dangerous proliferation.
Question for practice:
Discuss how historical conflicts in the Middle East have influenced global oil markets and exposed the limitations of conflict resolution efforts.
