What the return of quadrilateral says about India and emerging Asian geopolitics:  

What the return of quadrilateral says about India and emerging Asian geopolitics:  

Context

Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe proposed the idea of Asian democracies joining forces in 2006.

The benefit

• Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar indicated India’s willingness to work with Japan and the United States deals with regional issues.
• U.S. investments in the power sector of Nepal will be in Indian interest. Regionalism will grow if there are higher comfort levels. Having Japanese or the Americans in room will be more helpful.
• Indications of regional partnership between India and Japan came also during Mr Abe’s visit, with both sides indicating willingness to manage the maritime domain from Indian Ocean and the Asia-Pacific zone.

India – Japan relationship

Background

• In the context of 21st Century, among all the bilateral relations, Indo-Japan relations have all the potential to transcend this era into an ‘Asian century’.
• Commonalities such as shared democratic values, commitment to human rights, pluralism, open society and rule of law are foundation blocks of this global partnership.

Convergence

Mutual importance for each other

• Varied factors have supported momentum of this partnership viz. India’s economic resurgence, its engagement with USA and its increasing interest and stakes in East Asia in the form of Look East Policy in 1992 and Act East Asia Policy in 2015.
• On similar lines, for Japan, India has emerged as an alternative economic partner and important constituent of Asia’s emerging security order.
• A transition of power is unfolding in Asian continent and the shape and substance of Indo-Japan relationship is one of its spin-off.
• Notwithstanding, strengthening of the Indo-Japan relations is not the only consequence of rise of china and USA’s shifting of regional policy in the form of “Rebalancing of Asia”.
• Factors like domestic perception of the alliance partner, which is amicable, have stimulated this relationship.
• Japanese perception of India has also been molded by the dissenting opinion of Radha Binod Pal- the Indian judge at famous Tokyo trials – who declined to convict Japan’s top military brass as war criminal proving that Japan’s imperial history has been discounted by Indian consciousness.
• In addition to this, personal bonding between Japanese PM and his Indian counterpart, who are leading single party majority government in respective countries, is a class by itself.

Strategic Partnership

• Increment in china’s military expenditure was almost one and half times bigger in 2014 than defense outlay in 2010. This expansion is a cause of concern for both countries, since both countries are engaged in negotiation with China over Arunachal Pradesh (India) and Shenkaku Island (Japan).
• New Delhi and Tokyo are apt to hedge against USA’s possible failure in containing china’s growing assertiveness in the region in the backdrop of this era of power transition. This hedging strategy can be analyzed in three main categories-
• Firstly, increasing bilateral defence partnership against fear of American retrenchment,
• Secondly, economic engagement against an over-dependence on china and
• Finally, multilateral hedge against China’s rising influence in international and regional institutions.

Defense Cooperation

• In the sphere of defense, in 2009, 2+2 dialogue (foreign and defense ministerial) were initiated.
• India has always supported freedom of navigation and unimpeded lawful commerce in international waters in sync with UNCLOS vis-à-vis South China Sea dispute and East China Sea issue.
• India invited Japanese navy to participate in annual Malabar exercise in 2014 with USA in pacific waters, reviving an earlier practice of joint India-USA-Japan trilateral exercise.
• Negotiations on possible trade in defense equipment from Japan, as per Tokyo deceleration, are in the pipeline.
• Indian interest is in Japanese US-2 amphibious aircraft for surveillance purpose in the Indian Ocean is high.
• If this deal is realized, then it will signify for the first time Japanese export of defence goods and technology since World War II.

Economic Cooperation

• 2011-12 India-Japan bilateral trade stood at $18.31 billion. The comprehensive trade pact between India and Japan aims to double bilateral trade nearly to $25 billion.
• Japan is looking to boost trade and investment ties with India. The reasons behind this interest in India is obvious. India offers a large domestic market base.
• Besides, mutual synergies between businesses in the two countries are driving initiatives-
• Firstly, Japan’s ageing population (23% above 65 years) and India’s youthful dynamism (over 50% below 25 years)
• Secondly, Japan is a relatively labour scarce, capital abundant country that complements India’s rich spectrum of human capital.
• Thirdly, India’s prowess in the software sector lends synergy to Japan’s excellence in the hardware sector
• India’s abundance of raw materials and minerals matches well with Japan’s capabilities in technology and capital to produce knowledge-intensive manufactured goods 5.
• India’s large domestic market has been the main factor for investments by Japanese companies.
• The majority of investments are in traditional fields like machinery, automobiles and auto parts. Japanese small and medium enterprises have begun to discover India as the new growth market.
• Japan and India share a common vision for the world. This is aptly illustrated by the fact that there has been an increase in the number of joint declarations, delegation visits and other business events between the two countries.

India Japan CEPA

• The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) between India and Japan came into force in August 2011.Despite this agreement India-Japan bilateral trade stands at measly USD16 billion as compared to Sino-Indian trade amounting to USD 70 billion and Sino-Japanese trade at whooping amount of USD 343 billion in 2014.
• The agreement had two major concerns, namely: the infrastructure in India, and non-tariff barriers in Japan. On the infrastructure front, the two countries are collaborating on the huge, US $90-billion Delhi–Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) project.
• The project agreement appears highly promising in the environment of the new manufacturing policy whereby India is targeting to increase the share of manufacturing in GDP to 25 percent within a decade, potentially creating 100 million jobs.
• Japan had invested in dedicated freight corridor west project, strategic port facility in Chennai, development of strategic assets including highways and dams in North East Region where India’s immediate neighbor is eyeing for territorial expansion.

Way ahead

• India and Japan are two powerful democratic forces in Asia which are searching for more options to work and prosper jointly.
• Economic front needs to be strengthened to reach “Low Hanging Fruit of Asia” wherein demographic dividend of the India and other Asian countries can be deployed to benefit Asia as whole.
• Both need to join hand to establish peace and order in not only disturbed region of Asia but of the whole world.
• India-Japan defense and security cooperation remains a work in progress.