India needs a new foreign policy plan

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2 -Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Introduction

India’s foreign policy is facing a serious test as the long upward trend in India–U.S. relations has stalled. Changes in U.S. priorities, declining respect for partnerships, and weakening multilateralism show that earlier assumptions no longer work. The shifting balance of power, especially the U.S.–China equation, makes it necessary for India to rethink its foreign policy approach. A new plan must be based on realism, national strength, and diversified partnerships rather than expectations of special treatment.

Changing U.S. Strategic Priorities under Trump

1. Transactional mindset: The U.S. President treats foreign relations as deals driven by immediate gains. Strategic trust and long-term partnership have been replaced by bargaining and pressure.
2. Power hierarchy: Countries are judged by how much leverage they possess. Those seen as weak or eager face public disregard rather than diplomatic respect.
3. China leverage:

• China holds a strong hand because of its control over rare earths and magnets. This economic dominance shapes U.S. caution and restraint toward Beijing.
• The U.S. seeks a “grand bargain” with China instead of sustained confrontation. This shows a willingness to compromise even on sensitive strategic issues.

4. Ally restraint:

• When Japan faced Chinese pressure over Taiwan-related remarks, the U.S. warned Japan not to provoke China. This signals reduced commitment to protecting allies’ concerns.
• Statements suggesting China may decide Taiwan’s future weaken deterrence. Such ambiguity signals a retreat from earlier security assurances in the region.

5. Trade pressure: Trade negotiations are used as tools of coercion rather than cooperation. India faces threats of extreme tariffs despite being ready to conclude a trade agreement.

Erosion of the Indo-Pacific and the Quad Framework

1. Strategic dilution: Unclear U.S. signals on China and Taiwan weaken the Indo-Pacific concept. The strategy lacks a firm security and political foundation.
2. India marginalisation: India’s role as a central Indo-Pacific partner has weakened. The U.S. no longer treats India as a key pillar of its regional strategy.
3. Quad downgrade: Delayed engagement and reduced urgency show the Quad is no longer a U.S. priority. Even the timing of high-level visits reflects this decline.
4. Rhetoric gap: Positive statements from U.S. officials are not supported by policy action. Diplomatic reassurance has replaced strategic commitment.
5. Partner uncertainty: Unpredictable U.S. behaviour creates doubts among Quad members. Trust in long-term coordination has weakened.
6. Multilateral retreat: U.S. withdrawal from international organisations reduces platforms for joint action. This limits India–U.S. cooperation in global governance.

India–U.S. Relations: From Confidence to Disillusionment

1. Initial confidence: India believed ideological affinity and personal rapport with the U.S. leadership would strengthen bilateral ties. Early high-level meetings reinforced the belief that relations would continue on an upward path.
2. Trade optimism: India expected to be among the first countries to conclude a bilateral trade agreement with the United States. This expectation was based on early diplomatic signals and positive engagement.
3. Strategic continuity: Early meetings of Quad foreign ministers suggested continuity in the Indo-Pacific strategy. These signals created confidence that U.S.–China competition would remain central.
4. Policy reversal: Later actions showed that earlier assumptions were incorrect. The U.S. shifted toward accommodation with China alongside selective confrontation.
5. Personal friction: Ties were strained by Trump’s claim of brokering a ceasefire during Operation Sindoor without Indian acknowledgment. The issue worsened sentiment but did not determine policy direction.
6. Structural drivers: The deeper cause lies in changing geopolitics and the decline of U.S. power relative to China. This shift explains America’s reassessment of alliances and global commitments.
7. Status downgrade: India has been treated as a second-tier partner despite personal praise. Evidence includes stalled trade talks, tariff threats, and U.S. withdrawal from forums like the International Solar Alliance.

India’s Strategic Recalibration and Diversification

1. Appeasement limits: India’s repeated phone calls, lobbying efforts, and attempts to secure early engagement produced no outcomes. Instead, they enabled public claims by the U.S. President without yielding trade or strategic gains.
2. Strategic restraint: India has stopped chasing reconciliation at any cost. This is visible in ignoring advice to place a call to seal the trade deal and skipping chances for face-to-face meetings.
3. Diplomatic silence: India has avoided reacting to threats of a 500 percent tariff and incorrect claims on Apache helicopter deliveries. Silence is used to deny political leverage and public misrepresentation.
4. Selective alignment: India endorsed U.S. positions on Gaza and Ukraine and issued vague calls for dialogue after U.S. actions in Venezuela. These choices broke ranks with BRICS partners during India’s chairmanship.
5. Trade diversification: India redirected diplomatic energy toward trade agreements with the UK, New Zealand, and the EFTA bloc. This aimed to reduce dependence on an uncertain U.S. market.
6. Diplomatic outreach: Since June 2025, India’s leadership has visited 21 countries to strengthen ties across regions. This outreach supports a broader multi-alignment strategy.
7. Leverage retention: India continues defence, counter-terrorism, and technology cooperation with the U.S. At the same time, its large market and supply of high-end manpower remain its strongest bargaining assets.

Conclusion

The trajectory of India–U.S. relations reflects deeper shifts in global power and U.S. strategic priorities. As frameworks weaken and assumptions collapse, India has begun recalibrating through restraint, diversification, and multi-alignment. Going ahead, sustaining economic strength and strategic autonomy will be crucial for India to manage great-power rivalry without overdependence on any single partner.

Question for practice:

Examine how changing U.S. strategic priorities under Donald Trump have altered the trajectory of India–U.S. relations and compelled India to recalibrate its foreign policy approach.

Source: Indian Express