Indian Agriculture’s Polycrisis Moment

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 3- Food Security

Introduction

Indian agriculture faces a polycrisis driven by geopolitical conflicts, weak monsoon, climate uncertainty, rising input costs and water scarcity. Its growing dependence on fossil fuels exposes farming to external energy shocks, while diversion of food crops towards biofuels creates food-fuel competition. At the same time, rainfall dependence threatens farm incomes and food affordability. These interconnected risks highlight the need to shift from short-term relief towards long-term agricultural resilience. Indian Agriculture’s Polycrisis Moment.

Major Causes of the Crisis

1. Fossilisation of Farming: India’s tractor population has crossed 1.2 crore, while fertiliser consumption reached 33.5 million tonnes of N, P and K in 2025-26. Urea and DAP accounted for around 67.5% of consumption, increasing dependence on chemical inputs.
2. Dependence on Imported Energy and Raw Materials: India imports oil, gas and fertiliser raw materials, including ammonia, rock phosphate, sulphur and muriate of potash. Many crop protection chemicals also depend on imported technical-grade ingredients and intermediates.
3. Geopolitical Conflicts and Input Price Shocks: Conflicts in West Asia and the Black Sea region have raised global input prices. LNG prices delivered to Northeast Asian markets rose from around $11 to $30 per million British thermal units, while sulphur’s landed price in India reached $1,000–1,100 per tonne.
4. Fuelisation of Food: High crude oil prices encourage the diversion of sugarcane, rice, maize and vegetable oils towards biofuel production. This can intensify competition between food and fuel requirements.
5. Climate Uncertainty and Rainfall Dependence: Weak monsoon and a prospective very strong El Niño can intensify agricultural stress. Uneven rainfall, inadequate irrigation and low soil moisture further increase crop losses and disrupt agricultural planning.
6. Inefficient Use of Fertilisers: Only one-third of the nitrogen in urea is absorbed by crops, while three-fourths of phosphorus applied through DAP gets locked in soil and remains unavailable to plant roots during the growing season.

Impact of the Crisis

1. Agricultural Production and Cost Risks: Combined energy and climate shocks can increase cultivation costs and disrupt agricultural production. The impact is greater in regions dependent on rainfall and vulnerable supply chains.
2. Farmers’ Income and Indebtedness: Farmers invest in seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, labour and irrigation before harvest. Crop failure can destroy these investments, while financial obligations and next-season expenses continue.
3. Agrarian Distress: Reports of four farmer suicides in Maharashtra within seven days underline the human cost of agrarian distress. However, the circumstances of individual deaths require independent verification.
4. Food Inflation and Household Insecurity: Prices of certain rice varieties in Tamil Nadu reportedly rose by up to 50%. Higher food costs reduce poorer households’ spending capacity for healthcare, education, transport and other necessities.
5. Rural Livelihood and Economic Disruption: Reduced cultivation can weaken rural employment and local demand. Agricultural labourers, livestock owners and rural businesses may also face financial difficulties.
6. External Vulnerability and Historical Risks: India’s dependence on imported agricultural inputs exposes it to external supply disruptions and price shocks. During 1979-80, the farm sector contracted by 12.8%, while its oil import bill doubled following Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

Existing Government Measures and Policy Responses

1. Restriction on Ethanol Feedstocks: The Indian government has banned the use of sugarcane juice and B-heavy molasses for ethanol production. Further restrictions on grain-based feedstocks may become relevant during El Niño conditions.
2. Emergency Drought Relief: Governments provide water tankers, compensation and relief programmes in affected areas. These measures provide immediate assistance but cannot replace long-term water security.
3. Financial Protection for Farmers: Institutional credit and crop insurance can protect farmers against crop losses and financial distress. Transparent crop-loss assessment and timely claim settlement are essential for effective support.
4. Food Supply and Market Interventions: Public stock releases, alternative sourcing and distribution networks can help manage shortages. Calibrated export restrictions may also stabilise supplies, but unpredictable interventions can weaken farmers’ price expectations.

Way Forward

1. Improve Fertiliser Efficiency: Gradually replace urea and DAP with ammonium sulphate and balanced complex fertilisers. This can reduce nitrogen losses and phosphorus lock-up while improving nutrient availability.
2. Promote Biostimulants and Plant Resilience: Biostimulants can expand root surface areas and improve nutrient absorption. Strengthening plants’ internal defence and adaptation mechanisms can also help reduce chemical pesticide application.
3. Strengthen Water Conservation and Irrigation: Expand watershed development, rainwater harvesting, ground water recharge and restoration of village ponds and small reservoirs. Promote solar-powered pumps and drip irrigation to improve water management.
4. Encourage Climate-Resilient Farming: Promote drought-tolerant seeds, soil-moisture conservation and locally relevant weather forecasts. These measures should be affordable and accessible to small and marginal farmers.
5. Reform Crop Choices and Agricultural Markets: Align crop choices with local water availability and encourage diversification. Support farmers through assured markets, suitable seeds, technical assistance, procurement reforms and viable prices for alternative crops.
6. Strengthen Farmers’ Financial Security: Ensure transparent crop-loss assessment, timely insurance settlements and suitable credit relief. Support the next cropping cycle to prevent temporary distress from becoming recurring indebtedness.
7. Improve Drought Preparedness and Food Management: Establish advance plans with clear relief triggers and responsibilities. Monitor production estimates, reservoir levels, mandi arrivals, prices and food stocks to identify shortages early.

Conclusion

Indian agriculture needs a shift from crisis management to long-term resilience. Reducing dependence on imported inputs, improving resource efficiency and strengthening water security are essential. Agricultural policy must protect farmers’ livelihoods while keeping food affordable. Better preparedness, accountable governance and coordinated reforms can reduce future climatic and geopolitical risks.

Question for practice:

Discuss the major causes and impacts of the polycrisis facing Indian agriculture and suggest measures to strengthen its long-term resilience.

Source: Indian Express