U.S foreign policy: The road ahead

Source: The Hindu

Gs2: Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests, Indian Diaspora

Synopsis: Evaluation and analysis on Impact of Mr. Biden’s foreign policy on various regional blocs.

Background

• President Biden is an idealistic, supporter of multilateralism and is deeply committed to democratic values and principles.
• He is taking a series of policy decisions to restore the prestige of America’s democracy.
• However, President Biden needs to plan a lot more as the global environment today is very different from the erstwhile Obama-era.
• He needs to give a fresh look at many contentious foreign policy issues.

What are the contentious foreign policy issues under Biden administration?

Relations with China:

• Rising China poses a diplomatic, economic and technological threat to the U.S. Hence old school strategies such as inclusive security architecture in Asia would not be productive.
• Also, given the current situation, few countries in Asia are willing to oppose China. In this context, Biden administration needs to rethink whether the U.S. should persist with confrontation or attempt conciliation.

Relations with Russia:

• Strategic ties between Russia and China is growing. It has widened the gap between the two countries (the U.S. and Russia).
• Further, considering the Russia’s growing interest in Eurasia, the U.S. need to come up with new policy directives to balance their interests.

Realtions with Europe:

• Europe was once a close ally of U.S. but not anymore. They have started pursuing their Strategic autonomy. Germany has risen as Europe’s new Power centre. It dictates Europe’s relations with countries such as China and Russia. For example, Germany, despite U.S objection wants to go ahead with Nord Stream 2, the Russia-led gas pipeline project.
• The EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment, again despite the U.S.’s objections, is another indication of Europe’s new independent thinking.
• Hence it would be a tough task of repairing America’s ties with Europe.

Relations with West Asia

The U.S under Mr. Biden administration has to tackle variety of problems while dealing with West Asia. Such as,

• The U.S.’s efforts to find a political settlement to end the civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
• Dealing with Saudi Arabia that is on a Biden ‘watch-list’, adds to the complexity of dealing with West Asia.
• Another larger problem is finding a solution to deal with the Iran nuclear problem.
  • • The ‘Abraham Accord’ between US, UAE and Israel, signed during the last days of the Trump Administration. It has further complicated the situation for the incoming Biden government.
    • Returning to the JCPOA, or the Iran nuclear deal framework, may not be a realistic option after the signing of ‘Abraham Accords’.

How Mr. Biden’s Policy will Impact India?

1. Biden’s administration could have both positive and negative impacts on India-U. S bilateral relation.
2. The India-U.S. strategic partnership defence and security cooperation between India and the U.S. are likely to be further stepped up. Also, Regional security cooperation will be further enhanced.
3. However, considering Mr. Biden’s strong commitment to human rights he will be far less supportive of India on several issues. Example: Kashmir issue, treatment of NGOs.
4. A more concerning issue for India is that under Mr. Biden, countries such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are likely to play a more critical role than India in achieving security in the Indo-Pacific.
5. Another upset for India will be Mr. Biden’s Afghanistan policy. There is only little room for India under U.S Afghanistan policy if Pakistan is playing the role of mediator for the new arrangement.
6. This will have two major impacts on India.
   • • One, India’s efforts of the past two decades to restore democracy in Afghanistan would not be recognized.
     • Second, Pakistan would also gain a degree of legitimacy that will encourage it to carry out terror strikes on India with greater impunity.