A multipolar world with bipolar characteristics

Source: The post  “A multipolar world with bipolar characteristics’’ has been created, based on “A multipolar world with bipolar characteristics” published in “The Hindu” on 31st December 2025.

UPSC Syllabus: GS Paper-3- International Relations

Context: The post-Cold War unipolar world, dominated by the United States, is transitioning to a multipolar system. China and Russia have emerged as major powers, reducing U.S. exclusivity in shaping global geopolitics. The emerging world order is fluid and competitive, displaying multipolar characteristics with distinct bipolar features due to U.S.-China rivalry.

U.S. Strategic Reorientation:

1. The United States has increased military presence in the Caribbean, deploying aircraft carriers, submarines, and tens of thousands of troops to pressure Venezuela.
2. The 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) identifies Latin America and the Caribbean as a strategic priority, reviving the Monroe Doctrine to limit Chinese influence.
3. Simultaneously, the U.S. is reducing its security commitments in Europe, asking allies to take greater responsibility for regional defence.
4. These actions indicate the U.S. is consolidating influence in its immediate neighbourhood while preparing for long-term competition with China.

The Three Great Powers:

1. United States: It continues to be the pre-eminent military and economic power globally but faces challenges from the rise of China and assertive actions by Russia. It prioritises regional primacy in the Western Hemisphere while engaging in strategic competition with China.
2. China: The world’s second-largest economy, growing faster than the U.S. and converting economic power into military capability, including the largest navy by number of ships. It seeks regional dominance in East and Southeast Asia and aims to establish a China-centric global order.
3. Russia: It is economically weaker than the U.S. and China but retains nuclear weapons, vast territory, and abundant energy resources. It seeks to reassert influence in its traditional sphere, and its partnership with China balances global power dynamics. Also, it functions as a swing power, mediating between U.S. and China while pursuing its own strategic goals.

Global Power Dynamics:

1. The world is multipolar, with no single authority controlling international affairs.
2. Unlike previous eras, this multipolarity is fluid, as China lacks satellite states, the U.S. re-evaluates alliances, and Russia navigates its strategic independence.
3. Divergent objectives of the three great powers create uncertainty and competitive tensions in global politics.
4. Bipolar Characteristics within Multipolarity:

1. • The S.-China rivalry introduces bipolar features reminiscent of historical contests such as Britain versus Germany in 19th-century Europe.
   • Russia’s role as a swing power further accentuates the bipolar tendencies within the multipolar system.

Challenges in the Emerging Order:

1. Risk of great power conflicts due to overlapping spheres of influence and strategic competition.
2. Instability in alliances, as middle powers like India, Japan, Brazil, and Germany must hedge their positions.
3. Erosion of global governance structures, as consensus on international rules is difficult with competing interests.
4. Regional conflicts and proxy wars may intensify as great powers exert influence in different regions.
5. Economic vulnerabilities, as trade and investment flows are affected by geopolitical competition.

Way Forward:

1. Middle powers must adopt strategic autonomy to safeguard national interests and avoid overdependence on any single power.
2. Strengthening multilateral institutions like the UN, G20, and regional forums can help manage conflicts and promote cooperation.
3. Diplomacy should focus on balancing great powers, encouraging dialogue between the U.S., China, and Russia to reduce tensions.
4. Regional security frameworks should be modernised and inclusive, incorporating emerging powers to ensure stability.
5. Promoting economic interdependence and trade cooperation can help mitigate the risks of confrontation.

Conclusion: The unipolar world has ended, but U.S. dominance persists alongside rising Chinese power and assertive Russia. The emerging order is multipolar but exhibits bipolar features, primarily due to U.S.-China competition and Russia’s swing role. The new global environment requires strategic autonomy, multilateralism, and balanced diplomacy to navigate challenges and maintain stability.

Question: Examine the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world with bipolar features. Discuss the roles of the U.S., China, and Russia, and the challenges and way forward for middle powers like India.