A year on from Myanmar’s ‘annus horribilis’

News: February 1 marks one year of military seizing power in Myanmar. The decade-long experiment of hybrid Democracy ended, paving way for violence, oppression and instability.

What is the background of the issue?

What has been the result of the military takeover?

The opposition formed a parallel government named National Unity Government. But it lost momentum and Myanmar denounced it as a terrorist. The national economy has weakened as pointed by World Bank terming it as critically weak. Government support to manage the pandemic was also greatly impacted.

What has been ASEAN’s role in Myanmar’s development?

ASEAN persuaded the senior general of Myanmar to accept a five-point consensus. It included cessation of violence, national dialogue and mediation by ASEAN. When Myanmar did not implement this, The senior general was barred from ASEAN summits.

The Cambodian Prime Minister has adopted a softer approach, which is backed by Thailand and Laos. It seeks compromise on denial of access to Suu Kyi to ASEAN mediators and little dilution of the 2008 Constitution.

What is the role of other players?

The West was unable to comprehend the dynamics of power as the USA and EU failed to resolve the issues in Myanmar. The policy of imposing sanctions has been ineffective.

China, the principal player: China has enormous leverage in golden land through control over separate ethnic armed organisations and projects like the Belt and Road initiative. China also protects the military regime in the Security Council via veto.

But Myanmar rulers also desire independence and balance in their external policy. Japan understands this, but it is acting alone and cannot make much difference.

What is India’s policy towards Myanmar?

India is always happy to work with fellow democracies. But it is not keen on exporting democratic values to other countries. India supports diplomatic efforts through the UN and through ASEAN. India also engages in humanitarian efforts by providing 1 million made in India vaccine doses.

India is following a two-track policy of supporting democracy and maintaining cordial relations with the government in power. Guided by realism and pragmatism, India is driven by the desire to protect India’s interests.

What should be the way forward for India?

India has to discourage the mass influx of refugees, check cross-border insurgency in the northeast, safeguard ongoing projects and investments and also counter China’s growing influence.

Source: This post is based on the article “A year on from Myanmar’s ‘annus horribilis’“ published in The Hindu on 31st January 2022.