An enlarged Nato does not enhance its appeal

Source: The post is based on the article “An enlarged Nato does not enhance its appeal” published in Live mint on 17th July 2023.

Syllabus: GS 2- Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests

News: In this article author discusses the geopolitical implications of Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, the tension between NATO and Russia, and the suggested role of India amidst these global political changes.

How will Ukraine’s NATO membership impact other nations?

Effects on Russia: Ukraine’s NATO membership would limit Russia’s power. As Ukraine is Russia’s neighbor, NATO’s presence could be seen as a direct threat by Moscow. This could further strain the already tense relations between Russia and NATO.

Impact on NATO Countries: NATO countries will be obliged to defend Ukraine under the alliance’s mutual defense pact. This might increase tensions as these nations could potentially face a direct confrontation with Russia.

Implications for Finland and Sweden: Finland and Sweden, recently joined NATO due to the Ukrainian conflict. Ukraine’s membership could reinforce their decision, as it would strengthen the NATO’s northern flank against Russia.

Effects on the Baltic states: The Baltic states, already NATO members, would likely feel more secure with Ukraine’s inclusion. This would establish a stronger front against potential Russian aggression.

What are the major concerns related to Ukraine’s NATO membership?

Risk of armed and nuclear conflict: Ukraine’s NATO membership could risk triggering an armed conflict with Russia. Due to NATO’s commitment to defend any member under attack, a dispute involving Ukraine could draw the entire alliance into a major confrontation. Given that Russia is a nuclear power, this situation further raises the stakes by increasing the risk of a nuclear conflict. The potential for such a high-level conflict is a significant concern associated with Ukraine’s possible NATO membership.

Uncertain support for Ukraine: NATO’s refusal to offer a schedule for Ukraine’s membership signals the alliance’s hesitation. This could be due to fear of antagonizing Russia or reluctance to become directly involved in the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Impact on Non-NATO Countries: Ukraine’s NATO membership could also affect non-NATO countries like Moldova and Georgia. It could increase their aspirations to join NATO, which could exacerbate tensions with Russia.

What should be done by India in this scenario?

India should maintain its policy of strategic autonomy, making decisions that best serve its own national interests.

It should be cautious about aligning too closely with any major power bloc such as NATO. Despite the possibility of joining a ‘NATO+’, India must remember its longstanding principle of non-alignment. This stance has served India well in the past, allowing it to maintain good relations with different countries.

India should also continue its diplomatic engagements with all parties involved, ensuring that it doesn’t compromise its sovereignty or get drawn into conflicts not of its making.