Changing Geometries of the Battlefield: The Rise of Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS)

Modern warfare is undergoing a seismic transformation. Among the most prominent drivers of this surge is the exponential growth of autonomous weapons systems (AWS), including drones, missiles, and robotics. Ukraine’s recent “Operation Spider Web,” which involved launching inexpensive quadcopters from within Russia, marks a watershed moment in the evolution of military strategy, highlighting the obsolescence of traditional air defence models.

India too is embracing this shift. The Indian drone market is projected to grow to $11 billion by 2030, constituting over 12% of the global drone industry (Drone Federation of India, 2024). Meanwhile, initiatives like Operation Sindoor demonstrate India’s commitment to integrating AWS into its strategic arsenal. 

What are Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS)?

AWS refer to weapon systems that can select and engage targets with minimal or no human intervention. According to the UN Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR), more than 30 countries are currently developing AWS. These systems span a broad range of technologies and capabilities. These are often classified into:

• Remotely Operated Systems (e.g., Predator and Heron drones)
• Semi-Autonomous Systems (e.g., Fire-and-forget missiles like India’s BrahMos)
• Fully Autonomous Systems (e.g., Loitering munitions with AI decision-making capabilities)

Types:

1. Drones (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles – UAVs): From surveillance drones like India’s Nishant to combat drones like the U.S. MQ-9 Reaper, drones serve diverse military roles. Loitering munitions like the Israeli Harop and Indian ALFA-S, armed drones such as Bayraktar TB2, Predator are redefining precision strikes.
2. Swarm Drones: Employed in Ukraine’s “Operation Spider Web” — low-cost quadcopters coordinated via AI to infiltrate deep into Russian territory.
3. Autonomous Ground Vehicles (AGS): Robotic systems designed for reconnaissance, logistics, or combat roles on land.
4. Missiles: Modern ballistic and cruise missiles, such as the BrahMos and Agni-V, integrate AI-driven guidance and satellite navigation systems.
5. Autonomous Missile Systems: Missiles equipped with AI for target selection and engagement without human input.
6. Robotics: Ground robots like Russia’s Uran-9 or the U.S. MAARS (Modular Advanced Armed Robotic System) support infantry and reconnaissance.
7. Autonomous Naval Systems: India’s autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) developed by DRDO, and global counterparts like the U.S. Sea Hunter, are transforming naval reconnaissance.
8. AI and Digital Command & Control: Integrated AI-based battle networks like India’s IACCS, US’s Project Maven.

Levels of Autonomy Associated with These Systems:

• Human-in-the-Loop: Systems that require human input for decision-making.
• Human-on-the-Loop: Systems that can operate autonomously but are supervised by humans who can intervene.
• Human-out-of-the-Loop: These are lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS) fully autonomous systems that operate without human oversight.

How these Systems are Changing Geometries of the Battlefield in Present Times?

AWS now allow real-time, low-cost, high-impact warfare from anywhere—breaking the geography of conventional frontlines. Historically, each phase of military innovation has reshaped the battlefield:

1. From Close Combat: In WWI machine guns, created defensive stalemates and forced a rethinking of assault tactics. During WWII Blitzkrieg tactics, combining tanks, aircraft, and artillery, bypassed static defences and emphasized mobility. By the Cold War the V-2 rocket’s marked the advent of long-range missile warfare. Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) redefined deterrence.
2. To Remote Strikes: AI-enabled drones, cyber warfare, and deep-strike capabilities have changed the battle. From Syria to Nagorno-Karabakh and now Ukraine, drones have become the dominant tools of asymmetric warfare. Ukraine’s container-launched drones in Operation Spider Web are a textbook example of strategic surprise enabled by technological decentralization.
3. Emergence of Non-State Actors: Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon have used Iranian drones to target sophisticated adversaries. ISIS deployed commercial drones for IED delivery, redefining low-cost warfare.
4. Collapse of Traditional Defence Doctrine: Ukraine’s “Trojan Horse” style drone operation from within Russian borders exposes vulnerabilities in static air defence systems and upends decades of doctrine.
5. India’s Response: Operation Sindoor showcased India’s Integrated Air Command and Control System (IACCS), developed by BEL, which links radars, missile systems, and real-time data feeds to intercept aerial threats including drones.

What is the Significance of AWS for India?

1. Strategic Deterrence and Second-Strike Capability: Long-range drones and hypersonic weapons will enhance India’s nuclear posture through credible second-strike capabilities. Systems like Agni-V, BrahMos-II, and loitering munitions deter conventional and asymmetric threats. These also support non-nuclear escalation dominance through swarm drones. Example: Agni-V and BrahMos-II extend deterrence.
2. Border Surveillance and National Security: UAVs such as Heron, Rustom-II, and Tapas-BH provide persistent monitoring of LAC and LoC, especially after the 2020 Galwan clash. These are vital across tough terrains in Ladakh, Arunachal Pradesh, and the Northeast. Post-Galwan, India expanded drone deployments along borders. Example: Tapas-BH deployed along eastern Ladakh
3. Counter-Terrorism and Internal Stability: Drones enable precision strikes in Naxal-affected zones and insurgent hotbeds in J&K and the Northeast. AWS minimize collateral damage and human risk during operations. AI-powered drones provide real-time reconnaissance for surgical missions. Example: Drone kills top militant in Pulwama
4. Disaster Management and Dual-Use Application: Drones are deployed for flood mapping, earthquake rescue, and disaster relief delivery. Their ability to access hazardous or remote zones reduces response time. In 2023, drones were key in Odisha cyclone evacuation planning. Example: Drones used post-Odisha cyclone floods
5. Indigenous R&D and Economic Growth: India’s drone sector is projected to reach $11 billion by 2030, supporting Aatmanirbhar Bharat. DRDO’s ALFA-S, HAL’s combat UAVs, and startups like ideaForge are driving innovation. The Drone Federation of India is mobilizing industry expansion. Example: Drone Federation targets $11B market
6. Air Defence and Force Multiplication: Systems like IACCS and Akashteer enable real-time tracking and response against aerial threats. AWS complement manned systems in India’s multilayered air defence. Automated UAV fleets allow fewer troops to manage wider surveillance. Example: Akashteer integrates real-time threat response
7. Export Potential and Soft Power Projection: India aims to export $5 billion in defence hardware by 2025, including UAVs. Drones have been sold to Armenia, with export ambitions targeting Africa, ASEAN, and West Asia. This bolsters India’s global tech profile. Example: Drone exports initiated to Armenia
8. AI Ecosystem and Technological Leadership: AWS investments are driving India’s AI and robotics push under MeitY’s IndiaAI mission. These platforms create high-tech jobs, stimulate R&D, and support global norms on responsible AWS use via G-20. Example: DRDO AI Lab boosts AWS innovation

What are Challenges and Risks Associated with AWS?

1. Ethical and Legal Dilemmas: Delegating lethal decisions to machines challenges International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and ethics. UN Special Rapporteurs have called for a ban on Lethal Autonomous Weapons (LAWS). No global consensus exists under the UN’s CCW framework. Example: UN calls LAWS “morally unacceptable”.
2. Civilian Casualties and AI Errors: AI misidentification may result in wrongful strikes, raising grave concerns about civilian safety. U.S. drone strikes in Iraq and Afghanistan show real-world errors. 2022 Nagorno-Karabakh saw multiple drone misfires. Example: AI error killed civilians in Kabul.
3. Accountability and Legal Ambiguity: No clear legal frameworks exist on liability when autonomous weapons commit war crimes. Command responsibility blurs as machines act independently. India’s AWS operations lack domestic legislative backing. Example: No law governs AWS accountability yet.
4. Cybersecurity and Tech Vulnerability: AWS systems are highly vulnerable to hacking, spoofing, and electronic warfare. CERT-IN flagged 30+ drone vulnerabilities in 2024. Compromised AWS may be turned against original operators. Example: CERT-IN flagged major drone flaws.
5. Arms Race and Regional Instability: Unregulated AWS development by major powers may trigger an arms race. China’s rapid advances in swarm drones and hypersonic systems concern India. Asia risks destabilization without arms control regimes. Example: China tests AI swarm drone fleets.
6. Dependence on Foreign Technology: India relies heavily on Israeli and U.S. ISR components, risking strategic vulnerabilities. This compromises autonomy in deployment and maintenance of AWS. Aatmanirbhar push is slowed by tech import needs. Example: Israeli Heron drones dominate ISR ops.
7. Job Loss and Skill Gaps: Widespread automation may reduce roles for traditional personnel in defence sectors. At the same time, India faces shortages in AI-skilled military technicians. AWS may deepen socio-economic disruption in armed forces. Example: AI replacing conventional infantry scouts.
8. Terrorism, Privacy & Environmental Risks: Terror groups like ISIS and Houthis use commercial drones for attacks. Over-surveillance risks civil liberties, while drone debris impacts ecosystems. Lithium battery pollution from drone crashes is rising. Example: 2021 Jammu drone attack on base.

What can be the Way Forward?

1. Clear Legal and Ethical Framework: India must enact a dedicated “Autonomous Weapons Regulation Act” aligned with International Humanitarian Law and UN GGE norms. Human-in-the-loop principles should be mandated to ensure human oversight in lethal decisions. An AI Ethics Council for Defence under NITI Aayog can guide responsible use. Example: UN GGE recommends human control norms
2. Strengthen Indigenous R&D and Innovation: Enhance DRDO, BEL, and start-up partnerships through iDEX and the Defence Innovation Organisation. Budget 2024-25 should allocate a dedicated AWS innovation fund to reduce foreign tech dependence. Collaborations with IITs and IISc can boost AI-AWS synergy. Example: iDEX supports 80+ defence tech startups
3. Cybersecurity and Operational Resilience: Fortify CERT-IN and establish an Integrated Cyber Defence Command to shield AWS systems from hacking and spoofing. Enforce regular vulnerability audits and red teaming. AI explainability and traceability should be mandated in AWS codes. Example: CERT-IN flagged 30 drone vulnerabilities
4. Military Doctrine and Skill Development: Integrate AWS modules into training at NDA, IMA, and War Colleges to shape modern doctrines. Launch AWS-specific AI and robotics courses under Skill India and Defence University. Upskilling is key to safe and strategic AWS deployment. Example: Army AI Centre launched in 2023
5. Global Norm Setting and Diplomacy: India should lead global AWS governance at forums like the UN’s Conference on Disarmament, G-20, and QUAD. Promote responsible innovation and non-proliferation of LAWS. Use platforms like I2U2 and BIMSTEC for regional alignment. Example: India led G-20 AI ethics agenda
6. Public-Private Partnerships and Civil Tech Transfers: Expand Defence Corridors in UP and Tamil Nadu to support dual-use AWS applications. Promote PPPs through schemes like TDF and DRDO Young Scientist Labs. Civil-military transfer can boost agriculture, logistics, and disaster management. Example: Drone startups grew 34% in 2023
7. Robust Export Controls and End-Use Monitoring: Strengthen AWS export frameworks via MEA’s export norms and Defence Procurement Procedure. Ensure tracking of end-users to prevent misuse by rogue actors. India must avoid repeating mistakes of dual-use tech exports. Example: DPP mandates end-user certification clause
8. Environmental and Societal Considerations: Implement green protocols in AWS development to reduce lithium battery waste and carbon footprint. Host public seminars and media outreach to raise AWS literacy and ethical discourse. Engage civil society in norm building. Example: DRDO hosted AWS ethics workshop 2024

Conclusion: The future of warfare, therefore, hinges not only on adopting these technologies but regulating them responsibly. India stands at a critical juncture where its technological prowess must be matched by strategic foresight. As the battlefield geometry transforms from trench lines to data streams, India’s policies must keep pace to ensure peace, preparedness, and prosperity in a rapidly militarizing world.