China builds trilateral ties to corner India

Source: The post China builds trilateral ties to corner India has been created, based on the article “A China-led trilateral nexus as India’s new challenge” published in “The Hindu” on 28th June 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2-India and its neighbourhood- relations.

Context:  China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh recently held their first trilateral meeting, soon after a similar one with Afghanistan. These meetings reflect China’s fresh push to reshape regional dynamics, boost Pakistan’s standing, and distract India through strategic alignments amid changing regional equations.

Historical Roots of the China-Pakistan Alliance

1. Post-1962 Strategic Realignment: The 1962 India-China war shaped regional geopolitics. China aligned with Pakistan to tie down India, while Pakistan saw China as a reliable partner for military and economic support.
2. Deep Economic and Military Dependence: By 2024, Pakistan owed over $29 billion to China. Over 80% of Pakistan’s arms come from China. China has also shielded Pakistan-backed terrorists at international platforms.
3. China’s Position in Operation Sindoor: After India’s retaliation in May 2025 for the Pahalgam terror attack, China called India’s action “regrettable” and supported Pakistan’s call for an investigation. Pakistan deployed Chinese-supplied radars, drones, missiles, and fighter jets.
4. Reaffirmation of Ties: In the aftermath, Pakistan’s foreign minister met his Chinese counterpart to reinforce their “iron-clad friendship.” This led to more trilateral engagements with other regional countries.

Resurgence of the ‘Plus One’ Strategy

1. A Recurring Strategic Pattern: This China-Pakistan-plus-one model is not new. In 1965, Pakistan attempted to use East Pakistan, China, and Nepal to isolate India from the Siliguri corridor.
2. Assertive Indian Responses: India’s responses to the Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and Pahalgam (2025) attacks have been forceful. India has signaled an end to tolerating Pakistan’s nuclear threats.
3. Strategic Isolation of Pakistan: India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, stopped trade, restricted port access, and hit military sites. These actions weakened Pakistan’s military morale and strategic confidence.
4. Countering Chinese Intrusions: India’s bold stance during Doklam and Galwan has surprised China. It has also strengthened ties with like-minded global partners to deter further aggression.

China’s Waning Regional Momentum

1. Maldives Returns to India: Despite initial anti-India moves, President Muizzu has turned back to India as China hesitates on economic commitments.
2. Nepal’s Stalled BRI Progress: Nepal signed the BRI framework, but key funding issues remain unresolved, and project implementation is slow.
3. Sri Lanka Reorients Toward India: President Dissanayake has shown respect for India’s concerns and visited Delhi before Beijing.
4. India’s Regional Diplomacy: Despite tensions, India allowed trilateral energy cooperation with Nepal and Bangladesh, reflecting pragmatic engagement.

Strategic Targeting of Bangladesh and Afghanistan

1. Efforts to Shift Loyalties: After regime changes in Afghanistan (2021) and Bangladesh (2024), China and Pakistan aim to pull these countries into their sphere.
2. Wary of India-Taliban Ties: India’s engagement with the Taliban worries Pakistan, prompting stronger ties with Bangladesh’s new government.
3. Terror and Security Risks: Bangladesh and Afghanistan’s historical links with Pakistan may facilitate new terror threats. This would reinvigorate Pakistan’s regional relevance and clear ground for China’s BRI ambitions.

India’s Strategic Challenge and Path Ahead

1. China as the Primary Threat: China remains India’s main strategic challenge, with Pakistan playing a secondary role. Trilateral alignments are Beijing’s tools to undermine India’s position.
2. Balancing Act for South Asia: South Asian nations must balance ties between India and China. India needs to clearly assert its redlines and warn that provocations carry severe consequences—economically, militarily, and politically.

Question for practice:

Discuss how China is using trilateral engagements to reshape regional alignments and challenge India’s strategic position.