Climate change is real: Strong cyclones to reduce in Bay of Bengal, rise in Arabian Sea by 2050, says study

What is the News?

A study has been published in the Science Advances estimating the impact of Climate Change on Cyclones.

What are the key findings of the study?

Increase in Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones could become fiercer and more frequent under current climate change.

The global cyclone count could double by 2050 from the current 80-100 annually while cyclone wind speeds could increase by 20%.

Opposite Impact on the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea

Climate change will have opposite effects on the frequency of strong tropical cyclones along the western and eastern coasts of India by 2050. 

The frequency of Tropical Cyclones will reduce in the Bay of Bengal traditionally known for its powerful storms while it will increase in the Arabian Sea, a calmer body of water in this regard.

Reason: ​​A possible explanation for this is a shift in the cyclone formation regions towards the Indian and Sri Lankan landmasses.

This shift is likely to cause the cyclones to make landfall sooner, shortening the time needed to intensify into severe tropical cyclones.

For instance, in states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, cyclones can be weaker compared to the 1980-2017 climate conditions as they had less time to intensify to higher intensities.

Note: Scientists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, had also observed a 52% increase in the frequency of cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea between 2001 and 2019 and an 8% decrease over the Bay of Bengal.

Source: The post is based on the article “Climate change is real: Strong cyclones to reduce in Bay of Bengal, rise in Arabian Sea by 2050, says study” published in Down To Earth on 28th April 2022.