Source: The post “Expert Explains: Why a conflict in Iran could be far more consequential than in Venezuela” has been created, based on “Expert Explains: Why a conflict in Iran could be far more consequential than in Venezuela” published in “Indian Express” on 05th February 2026.
UPSC Syllabus: GS Paper-2- International Relations
Context: Following weeks of escalating tensions and a noticeable build‑up of American military assets, the U.S. and Iran are set to hold talks in Oman on Friday to address Iran’s nuclear programme. A destabilising crisis in Iran could carry far more serious global consequences than one in Venezuela due to its strategic location, abundant oil and gas reserves, and central role in global energy security.
Reasons why Iran is considered more consequential than Venezuela
- Strategic Location and Energy Chokepoint
- Iran is situated along the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which nearly 20% of the world’s crude oil and LNG is transported.
- Any military escalation or blockade in this area could disrupt energy flows from multiple Gulf countries and cause a sharp increase in global oil and gas prices.
- In comparison, Venezuela does not control any major energy chokepoints, limiting the global impact of its oil sector.
- Energy Resources and Market Impact
- Iran holds the third-largest oil reserves and the second-largest natural gas reserves in the world.
- The South Pars gas field, shared with Qatar, is the largest gas field globally, highlighting Iran’s importance in natural gas supply.
- Iranian crude oil is of high quality and low extraction cost, whereas Venezuela produces heavy crude that is expensive and difficult to refine.
- Any disruption in Iran’s energy supply can immediately impact global oil prices, while Venezuelan oil has a more limited effect.
- Geopolitical and Great Power Considerations
- The United States, as the world’s largest oil and LNG producer, seeks to maintain strategic dominance in West Asia, prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons, and reduce China’s influence.
- China imports over 1.5 million barrels of Iranian oil per day and is Iran’s largest trading partner, increasing the stakes for global geopolitics.
- Internal Dynamics and Regional Stability
- Iran has a population of 90 million, with a majority under 35, and faces economic hardships.
- Historical experiences, such as the 1953 US-backed coup in Iran and the 2003 Iraq invasion, indicate that foreign intervention can create long-term instability, power vacuums, and regional conflict.
Way Forward:
- Diplomatic engagement: The international community should actively support negotiations, such as the talks in Oman, to resolve Iran’s nuclear issues through peaceful means.
- Energy diversification: Global dependence on single chokepoints, particularly the Strait of Hormuz, should be reduced by diversifying energy supply routes and sources.
- Economic cooperation: Iran should be encouraged to attract foreign investment by establishing a stable and transparent legal framework that ensures mutual benefits.
- Regional stability: Multilateral dialogue involving Gulf states, the US, and China should be promoted to prevent escalation of conflicts and ensure long-term regional stability.
- Monitoring and contingency planning: Countries should strengthen strategic petroleum reserves and develop robust mechanisms to respond effectively to potential energy crises.
Conclusion: Conflict in Iran could disrupt global energy markets, raise oil prices, escalate geopolitical tensions, and destabilize West Asia. Diplomatic engagement, negotiation, and peaceful resolution are essential to ensure energy security and maintain regional stability.
Question: A crisis in Iran is considered more serious for the world than a crisis in Venezuela. Analyse this statement in the context of the present geopolitical conditions.
Source: Indian Express
