Impact of Myanmar’s internal conflicts: Myanmar and regional security 

Source: The post impact of Myanmar’s internal conflicts has been created, based on the article “Myanmar and regional security” published in “Business standard” on 17th April 2024. 

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2-international relations -India and its neighborhood- relations.  

News: The article discusses the complex political situation in Myanmar. It highlights the long-standing conflicts involving Myanmar’s military, ethnic groups, and civilian government. India’s interactions with Myanmar, influenced by security and insurgency concerns, are also covered, showing a need to possibly rethink support to Myanmar’s military. 

For details information on India- Myanmar relations read here 

How has Myanmar’s political landscape evolved?

Independence to Military Dominance: Myanmar gained independence from Britain in 1948 and quickly entered a state of internal conflict. The military junta, known as the Tatmadaw, has been a dominant force, consistently clashing with ethnic groups across the country. These groups have either sought independence or a significant degree of autonomy. 

Era of Civilian Government: The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, represented significant civilian governance attempts. Despite the military’s underlying control, there were brief periods when democracy seemed to take root. However, these were always precarious due to the military’s power. 

Military Coups: The military has repeatedly disrupted Myanmar’s democratic processes through coups, notably rejecting the 2021 election results, which were overwhelmingly in favor of the NLD. This led to the arrest of Aung San Suu Kyi and other political leaders, with the military justifying their actions by declaring the elections invalid. 

Armed Resistance: Facing relentless oppression, various ethnic armed groups alongside the NLD formed the National Unity Government (NUG) and established the People’s Defense Force (PDF). This coalition has actively resisted Tatmadaw rule, aligning forces and gaining control over strategic areas, significantly challenging the military’s authority. 

What has been the impact of Myanmar’s internal conflicts?

Impact on Myanmar: The conflicts have led to alliances between various ethnic armed groups and the NLD, forming a resistance against the military. This includes the People’s Defense Force (PDF) and groups like the Karen National Union. Their successes, especially in controlling border areas, have weakened the military’s control and morale. 

Impact on India: The ongoing civil war in Myanmar has led to refugees, including civilians and soldiers, fleeing to India. This has pressured the northeastern states, especially Mizoram, which has provided shelter to ethnic kin from Myanmar. India’s measures like border fencing and suspending free entry have not fully controlled the spillover of conflict. 

Impact on China: Strategic Maneuvering- China plays a dual role, supporting the Myanmar military while also making local deals with ethnic groups controlling border outposts, ensuring influence regardless of internal fluctuations in power. 

What should be done?

Reassess Support for Myanmar’s Military: India should reconsider its tacit support to the military due to the legitimacy and resistance strength of the National Unity Government (NUG). 

Engage with Resistance Forces: Discreet engagement with the NUG and ethnic resistance groups might help maintain stability in India’s Northeast and influence outcomes favorably. 

Enhance Border Security Measures: Strengthening security measures along the border is crucial, particularly by improving infrastructure and increasing patrols to manage refugee inflows and prevent insurgent crossings. 

Question for practice: 

Evaluate the impact of Myanmar’s internal conflicts on India’s northeastern states.