Impact of the U.S. Tariffs on India’s Pharmaceutical Sector

Source: The post “Impact of the U.S. Tariffs on India’s Pharmaceutical Sector” has been created, based on “Exposure of Indian pharma to US tariffs

” published in “Business Line” on 23 October 2025. Impact of the U.S. Tariffs on India’s Pharmaceutical Sector.

UPSC Syllabus: GS Paper -2- Effect of Policies and Politics of Developed and Developing Countries on India’s interests

Context: The U.S. administration’s prospective decision to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports marks a significant shift from the traditional policy of exempting essential medical products due to their public health importance. This proposal introduces uncertainty for India’s pharmaceutical industry, a global leader in generic drug production and biosimilars. Given that the U.S. is India’s largest export destination, the move could have wide-ranging economic and structural implications for the sector.

Significance of India’s Pharmaceutical Sector:

1. India’s pharmaceutical sector has long held a comparative advantage in cost-efficient production, high-volume generics, and emerging biosimilar capabilities.
2. It forms a critical link in global medical supply chains, providing affordable medicines worldwide.
3. The industry contributes around $27 billion in exports annually, with the U.S.A accounting for approximately 35% of India’s total pharma exports.
4. Between 2019 and 2023, the U.S. consistently remained the top destination for Indian pharmaceutical exports, with an export share close to 0.35 on the index scale, significantly higher than other markets like the UK, South Africa, Russia, and Nigeria.
5. Major export categories include generic medicines, key antibiotics, and biosimilars, which rely on thin margins and economies of scale.

Potential Impact of the U.S. Tariffs:

1. If tariffs target generic medicines, it could severely affect India’s export revenues and growth prospects.
2. Market reactions have already reflected this uncertainty, with pharmaceutical stocks declining by about 2%.
3. Tariffs could lead to erosion of scale economies, lower profitability, and reduced investment incentives for R&D and technological advancement.
4. Firms with heavy exposure to the U.S. market would face the brunt of the impact due to limited diversification and regulatory restrictions that hinder rapid redirection to alternative markets.

Demand Elasticity and Revenue Loss:

1. The impact depends on the price elasticity of demand in the U.S. market. If demand were inelastic, consumers would bear the price increase, and export volumes might remain stable.
2. However, Indian pharma exports exhibit high elasticity, meaning consumers and distributors are likely to switch to alternative suppliers.
3. A 50% tariff could cause a major drop in export revenues, particularly for HS 3004 (generic medicines and antibiotics), where exports to the U.S. could be nearly wiped out.
4. Lower elasticity segments like HS 3005 (bandages, gauze) and HS 3006 (sterile surgical materials) may experience moderate losses but remain relatively stable due to steady demand.

Key Challenges for the Indian Pharmaceutical Sector:

1. Overdependence on the U.S. market: Nearly one-third of India’s pharmaceutical exports are directed to the United States, making the sector highly vulnerable to policy shifts and trade uncertainties arising from changes in U.S. administration decisions.
2. Lack of diversification: India’s pharmaceutical export base remains concentrated, with limited penetration into alternative markets such as Latin America, Africa, and Europe, thereby constraining its ability to offset losses from potential U.S. market disruptions.
3. Regulatory barriers: The pharmaceutical industry is among the most heavily regulated sectors globally, and variations in regulatory standards across countries make it challenging, time-consuming, and costly for Indian exporters to reorient supply chains to new markets.
4. Erosion of competitiveness: The imposition of tariffs could significantly undermine India’s cost advantage in generic medicines, weakening its competitiveness and damaging its reputation as a reliable global supplier of affordable pharmaceuticals.
5. Reduced innovation incentives: Declining revenues from tariff-affected exports would diminish the resources available for investment in research and development (R&D), regulatory compliance, and pharmacological innovation, potentially slowing the sector’s long-term growth and technological progress.

Way Forward:

1. Export Diversification: Expand trade links with Europe, Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia to reduce market concentration risks.
2. R&D and Value Addition: Shift focus from low-margin generics to high-value, patented formulations and biosimilars.
3. Strategic Trade Engagement: Use multilateral forums (WTO, WHO, UNCTAD) to advocate for fair trade norms in essential medicines.
4. Regulatory Harmonisation: Strengthen domestic capacity to meet diverse regulatory standards, enabling faster entry into alternative markets.
5. Supply Chain Resilience: Build localised and regional supply chains to mitigate disruptions from tariff or policy shocks.
6. Government Support: Implement export incentives, credit lines, and tax relief for firms affected by tariff policies.

Conclusion: The proposed U.S. tariffs on pharmaceutical imports present a serious challenge to India’s export-oriented pharmaceutical sector. With high elasticity of demand and heavy reliance on the U.S. market, the sector faces potential revenue losses and structural instability. However, India’s proven adaptability, technological strength, and global credibility provide a strong foundation to overcome these hurdles. Through strategic diversification, innovation-driven growth, and proactive policy engagement, India can safeguard its leadership in the global pharmaceutical value chain and ensure resilience against shifting trade dynamics.

Question: Discuss the implications of the proposed U.S. tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, particularly for India’s pharmaceutical sector. Highlight the major challenges and suggest the way forward.