India must rethink neutrality amid rising global tensions

Source: The post India must rethink neutrality amid rising global tensions has been created, based on the article “In a perilous world, India must read the tea leaves well” published in “The Hindu” on 1st July 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: India’s foreign policy is undergoing an existential crisis due to shifting global alignments. The rise of the China-Pakistan nexus, tensions in West Asia, and the unpredictability of the U.S. under Trump’s second term have challenged India’s stance of neutrality and demand urgent strategic reassessment.

Challenges to India’s Neutrality

1. Pressure from the Israel-Iran Conflict: India’s neutral stance on the Israel-Iran war is proving ineffective. The U.S. used GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on Iran’s nuclear sites at Fordow and Natanz, raising the threat level. Despite a ceasefire, an all-out war remains likely.
2. Nuclear Threat Becoming Real: The conflict has brought the ‘N word’—nuclear weapons—back into open discourse. India must reconsider whether it can still afford neutrality in such a volatile environment.
3. Limited Support from Traditional Allies: India’s leadership of the Global South and ties with West Asian nations yielded no support during its conflict with Pakistan. It now faces two hostile nuclear neighbors, both willing to use nuclear weapons if necessary. This shows that India’s current policies are not producing strategic dividends.

U.S. Policy Shifts and Strategic Isolation

1. Trump’s MAGA Impact on India: Donald Trump’s ‘Make America Great Again’ agenda now hurts India beyond trade. His claim of brokering peace between India and Pakistan—publicly endorsed by Pakistan’s Field Marshal Asim Munir but denied by India—created diplomatic tensions.
2. Diplomatic Snubs and Global Perceptions: Trump’s lunch with Munir and Modi’s refusal to visit Washington after the G-7 are seen as symbolic of worsening ties. These gestures may embolden pro-Pakistan lobbies in the U.S. and elsewhere.
3. India’s Diplomatic Misalignment: India’s tilt towards Israel has become a liability. Its policy of equidistance between Israel and Iran has failed to convince either side. Calls for restraint carry little influence when India does not clearly support victims of aggression.

Rising Global Emphasis on Hard Power

1. Hard Power Over Dialogue: At the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the emphasis was on military power, not diplomacy. U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth stressed that a ‘free and open Indo-Pacific’ is essential and condemned Chinese hegemony.
2. Worsening U.S.-China Tensions: China reacted sharply to U.S. warnings about Taiwan and the South China Sea. A Chinese spokesperson warned that the U.S. must not play with fire, indicating growing geopolitical instability.

India’s Required Strategic Reorientation

1. China-Pakistan Military Ties: India must study the deep integration of Chinese military tech in Pakistan, including J-10C and JF-17 jets. The recent India-Pakistan conflict shows that Chinese weaponry now plays a vital role in Pakistan’s defense.
2. Preparedness for Long Wars: India must assess its long-term war preparedness. The U.K.’s defense audit revealed gaps in stockpiles and command systems. India needs to develop electronic warfare units, AI capabilities, and ammunition reserves.
3. Modern Warfare Lessons: India should learn from the Russia-Ukraine war, where drones, loitering munitions, and glide bombs proved decisive. These systems must be prioritized in India’s defense planning.

Understanding China’s Strategic Intent

1. China’s Security White Paper: China’s white paper defines development and security as inseparable, stressing the importance of technological self-reliance and resilient supply chains. It also highlights threats from neighboring regions, indirectly pointing to India.
2. China’s Regional Encirclement Strategy: China’s alliance with Pakistan is aimed at strategically encircling India. China holds a 3:1 nuclear warhead advantageover India, and a 5:1 edge when combined with Pakistan. This imbalance poses a grave security threat.

Conclusion

India’s long-held strategies of neutrality and non-alignment are no longer sustainable. The global shift toward hard power, nuclear imbalance, and regional encirclement by China and Pakistan demand that India urgently reform its strategic and defense posture.

Question for practice:

Examine how recent geopolitical developments have challenged India’s traditional policy of neutrality and non-alignment.