India-Pakistan Relations: Complexity, Conflict & Cooperation

India and Pakistan, two South Asian nuclear-armed neighbors, share a fraught relationship rooted in the Partition of 1947. While the two nuclear-armed neighbors have fought four wars and multiple skirmishes, their relations are also shaped by deep historical grievances, strategic rivalries, and sporadic peace efforts.
In the latest tragic reminder of the enduring security threat, the 2025 Pahalgam terror attack resulted in the deaths of civilians and injuries. The incident, allegedly perpetrated by Pakistan-backed groups like The Resistance Front (TRF), has once again spotlighted the volatile dynamics between the two countries, particularly on the issue of cross-border terrorism.

Key Issues in India-Pakistan Relations: Evolution:

1. Cross-Border Terrorism: From the 1989 Kashmir insurgency to the 2001 Parliament attack, 2008 Mumbai attacks, Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019), and now Pahalgam (2025), terrorism remains the biggest concern. ORF classifies Pakistan’s terror infrastructure as “state-enabled non-state actors.”. Pakistan has long been providing safe havens to terror groups like LeT, JeM, and Hizbul Mujahideen. The 2001 Indian Parliament attack, 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2016 Uri attack, and 2019 Pulwama attack are all linked to Pakistani-based terror outfits. E.g. A 2023 report by Brookings Institution identified Pakistan’s “proxy war” strategy in Kashmir as a major destabilizing factor in South Asia.
2. Kashmir Dispute: The core territorial dispute stems from Pakistan’s claim over J&K, while India asserts its legal accession. Post-2019 abrogation of Article 370, Pakistan downgraded diplomatic ties and internationalized the issue at various forums. While India asserts it as a domestic issue, the UN Human Rights Council has occasionally flagged concerns over human rights in the region. Shyam Saran (ex-Foreign Secretary), “Pakistan treats Kashmir as the keystone of its identity” and C. Raja Mohan calls it Pakistan’s Kashmir fixation “strategic inertia rooted in ideological rigidity.”
3. Border and LoC Ceasefire Violations: Over 5,000 ceasefire violations in 2020 alone, according to MEA. While the 2021 reaffirmation brought temporary calm, violations resumed in 2023.  
4. Water Disputes under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT): Treaty Signed in 1960 under World Bank auspices. India has raised concerns post-Uri attack (2016) about revisiting the treaty. Pakistan raised objections to India’s Kishanganga and Ratle Hydropower Projects. India invoked Article XII of the treaty to renegotiate terms in 2023. World Bank’s urged both sides to resolve differences via neutral expert arbitration.
5. Trade and Economic Relations: Post-2019, Pakistan suspended bilateral trade. A report by CUTS International (2021) estimates potential trade loss of billion annually due to non-cooperation.
6. Religious Radicalization: Export of extremism through LeT, JeM, and D-Company operate from Pakistani soil. UNSCR Reports, highlight proliferation of madrassas and extremist hubs.
7. Nuclear Brinkmanship and Arms Race: Both nations maintain nuclear arsenals and credible deterrents. Post-Balakot (2019), India and Pakistan came dangerously close to conflict escalation, as noted in RAND Corporation’s 2021 assessment.
8. Afghanistan, Narcotics and Drone Warfare: India supports democratic stability, while Pakistan has been accused of covertly aiding Taliban factions. USIP Report (2023) said India fears increased terror influx via Afghanistan post-Taliban resurgence. India has close proximity to Death Triangle (Formally Golden Triangle) which increases the threat of narcotics and terrorism as seen in drone-based narcotics and arms drops in Punjab.
9. Cyber Warfare and Disinformation: Cyber espionage by Pakistani actors like APT36 targeting Indian defense and research. CERT-IN reports several Pakistan-origin intrusions.
10. Prisoners and Fishermen: 300+ fishermen from both sides remain jailed. Cases of spies (e.g., Kulbhushan Jadhav) worsen mutual distrust. International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in Jadhav’s favor in 2019.

Multilateral Groupings Involving India and Pakistan

1. SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation): India and Pakistan are founding members. SAARC summits are often stalled due to bilateral tensions. Paralysed since 2016 after the Uri attack. C. Raja Mohan observed that “SAARC has been held hostage to bilateral tensions.
2. Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO): Both are full members since 2017. Pakistan has blocked Indian proposals and boycotted certain events. India skipped SCO meetings in 2024 due to provocations.
3. UN and Related Agencies: Pakistan raises Kashmir issue frequently; India counters by stressing non-interference. India’s Stand: Consistently maintains Kashmir is a bilateral issue under the Shimla Agreement (1972).
4. World Trade Organization (WTO): Ongoing disputes over MFN status. India also withdrew Pakistan’s MFN status in 2019.

Present Dynamics and Shifts:

1. Union Government follows a “terror and talks cannot go together” doctrine.
2. Operation Sindoor and Balakot airstrike (2019) marked a shift towards pre-emptive action and direct response to the terrorist attack.
3. Pakistan’s internal economic crisis (USD reserves at critical levels as per IMF 2024 report) restricts its military adventurism.
4. US withdrawal from Afghanistan has left Pakistan more regionally isolated.
5. Think tank Carnegie India argues that the India-Pakistan equation is now less central to global diplomacy.

What are the Threats and Challenges Posed by Pakistan?

1. State-Sponsored Terrorism: ISI’s deep links with groups like LeT and JeM are documented by the FATF, which kept Pakistan on the grey list until 2022.
2. Cyber Espionage and Propaganda: CERT-In flagged multiple attempts of phishing and propaganda campaigns from Pakistani IPs targeting Indian defence personnel.
3. Smuggling and Narco-Terrorism: Punjab Police has reported a surge in drone-based smuggling of arms and heroin from across the border.
4. Border Infiltration: IB and LoC infiltration attempts remain persistent. BSF recorded over 200 infiltration attempts in 2023 alone.
5. Strategic Alliance with China: The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) runs through PoK, challenging India’s sovereignty. Brookings warns of a “two-front” security risk for India from the Sino-Pak axis.
6. Propaganda Warfare: Pakistan’s ISPR targets international narratives (via social media).
7. Nuclear Posturing: Tactical nukes threaten escalation.

What are the Global Powers Policies Toward India-Pakistan?

1. United States: Views India as a strategic partner under Indo-Pacific Strategy. Maintains defence ties with Pakistan (e.g., 2022 F-16 upgrade aid) to keep leverage. Carnegie Endowment noted U.S. “wants to prevent escalation while balancing both ties.” Ashley Tellis calls, US policy aims to “contain chaos in Pakistan while investing in India.”
2. China: Strong strategic partner of Pakistan. China is all-weather ally of Pakistan (CPEC, military aid) and supports Pakistan on Kashmir in UNSC. Uses Pakistan to counterbalance India’s regional influence. Engaged in infrastructure and military cooperation via CPEC, which India opposes.
3. Russia: Traditionally close to India, but now engages both countries, increasing ties with Pakistan in defense (Mi-35, joint drills). Supports anti-terrorism under SCO; has recently conducted trilateral exercises with both India and Pakistan separately.
4. OIC (Organisation of Islamic Cooperation): Supports Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir, though many Gulf nations now have improved ties with India (e.g., UAE, Saudi Arabia).
5. Gulf Countries (UAE, Saudi Arabia): Brokered 2021 ceasefire. UAE plays economic neutral; strong trade with both. Brookings Doha Center noted UAE’s role in Indo-Pak thaw.
6. European Union: Concerned with human rights in Kashmir, supports bilateral dialogue and is a major trade partner for both countries.

Way Forward: “A Unique Blend of Light and Tight Approach”:

1. Hard Strategy: Asserting Deterrence and National Security: Hard strategies are coercive tools used to safeguard sovereignty and deter hostile actions by Pakistan, especially in light of state-sponsored terrorism and cross-border aggression.

• Surgical and Cyber Strikes: Precision military operations across the border and digital warfare targeting enemy infrastructure. Examples: 2016 Surgical, 2019 Balakot Air Strikes. Lt. Gen. D.S. Hooda (Retd.), who oversaw the 2016 strikes, has emphasized integrating military and digital tools for “surgical precision and strategic messaging.”
• Financial Warfare and Strategic Messaging: Deterrence through visible action. Economically isolate Pakistan to choke terror funding and impose global accountability. Example, India lobbied successfully for Pakistan to be placed on the Grey List (2018–2022), tightening scrutiny on terror financing. IMF and World Bank Conditionalities, India uses diplomatic influence to condition economic aid to Pakistan on counter-terror reforms. C. Raja Mohan and Brahma Chellaney argues for, “Diplomatic strangulation through financial multilateralism has long-term strategic impact”, and “cost imposition” strategy respectively.
• Defence Modernization: Acquisition of Rafale jets, S-400 systems, and indigenous missile development (e.g., Agni-V, BrahMos). Focus on theatre commands and artificial intelligence in warfare. A strong military posture deters adventurism and gives India strategic superiority along the LoC and international border. Late Gen. Bipin Rawat advocated for “technologically enabled integrated response systems to handle conventional and hybrid threats.”
• Doctrine of Proportional Response: Balakot (2019) set a precedent. Former Army Chief Gen. Bipin Rawat: “Talks can follow only after complete dismantling of terror infrastructure.” Strengthen Border Security Force (BSF) and tech surveillance. Conduct surgical and cyber-strikes on credible threats.
• Global Model: Israel’s hard deterrence model cited as an example. Also amend IWT terms and limit water flows as leverage.

2. Soft Strategy: Building Bridges and Quiet Diplomacy: Soft strategies focus on dialogue, diplomacy, and cultural engagement to reduce hostility and build long-term peace foundations.

• Backchannel Talks: Quiet negotiations on contentious issues like terrorism, water-sharing (Indus Waters Treaty), and trade. Example, UAE-brokered talks (2021) led to reaffirmation of the 2003 LoC ceasefire. Sharat Sabharwal (Former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan) stresses “silent diplomacy often succeeds where loud declarations fail.”
• People-to-People Ties: Sports (e.g., cricket diplomacy), cultural exchanges, pilgrimages (Kartarpur Corridor). Examples: Kartarpur Sahib Corridor (2019): A rare success in India-Pakistan relations facilitating Sikh pilgrimage. Artists and intellectual exchanges—though currently suspended—help humanise relations.
• Third-Party Mediation: Using neutral players like UAE or Saudi Arabia to open informal channels. Example: UAE-brokered backchannel led to the 2021 LoC ceasefire renewal. UAE Ambassador to India termed it a “silent bridge between turbulent neighbours.”

3. Integrated Strategy: Combining Carrot and Stick: India increasingly favours a hybrid approach blending hard deterrence with calibrated engagement.

• Israel’s “Iron Fist with Silk Glove” Model: A doctrine where strong military responses are paired with soft outreach (technology, diplomacy). Application to India:
  • Military deterrence (Balakot) + Kartarpur diplomacy.
  • Strategic signaling: India uses restraint but also retaliates when red lines are crossed.
• Expert Commentary: Gen. Bipin Rawat, “Hybrid response to hybrid threats.” Example: Simultaneously downgrading diplomatic ties post-Article 370 revocation (2019) while maintaining backchannels and trade through third parties like the UAE. ORF: Suggests that India’s calibrated use of power and peace is aligned with the regional power doctrine. Brookings India: Advocates “controlled engagement” to avoid prolonged hostility while neutralising tactical threats.

Conclusion: From Conflict to Constructive Engagement:
India-Pakistan relations are a complex blend of history, hostility, and hope. While structural issues remain deeply entrenched, evolving geopolitics, changing domestic priorities, and increasing global pressure on state-sponsored terrorism may open windows for cautious engagement. As Shivshankar Menon, former NSA, aptly put it — “Peace with Pakistan is desirable, but it must be on terms that ensure security and stability for India.” The path forward requires realism, resilience, and a calibrated strategy that combines deterrence with dialogue.