UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2-International Relations-India and its neighbourhood- relations.
Introduction
India is weighing deeper contact with Kabul while guarding security and leverage. Pakistan–Taliban tensions, the Taliban Foreign Minister’s India visit, and India’s plan to upgrade its Kabul mission shape this moment. The core issues are India’s security, $3 billion development stake, and regional balance. Engagement offers access, but recognition carries costs. India must read Afghanistan’s economic collapse, humanitarian strain, and jihadist networks clearly before fixing long-term choices. India–Taliban Engagement.
Challenges faced by the Taliban
- Fragile control: The Taliban claim improved security, but their hold over a diverse, war-weary country is not settled. Power is centralised under a reclusive Kandahar-based leader while Kabul administrators run daily affairs, creating rigid control and limited accountability.
- Economic collapse: Afghanistan’s economy has shrunk by about one third since the takeover.
- Humanitarian strain: Revenue, jobs, and services are weak, and around 22.9 million people require humanitarian assistance, which keeps communities in a constant emergency.
- Social costs of women exclusion: Girls are barred from schooling beyond the primary level, and women are largely removed from workplaces. These policies reduce household income, lower productivity, and damage long-term recovery and social stability.
- Persistent jihadist ties and IS-K threat
- Despite public assurances, ties endure with foreign jihadist groups.
• The Haqqani network is embedded in the state.
• A UN monitoring report notes al-Qaeda safe houses and training camps and calls the Taliban the primary partner of foreign terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, Pakistani Taliban, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Taiba, and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan.
• Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) rejects Taliban rule and remains the most active armed challenger.
• If domestic pressures rise, these networks could resurface openly.
- Narrow political base: A Pashtun, men-only leadership governs a multi-ethnic society. Limited inclusion and mounting economic stress could revive latent networks and push the country back toward wider violence and regional spillover.
- Narcotics transition: The poppy ban has cut incomes for many farming households. This shock risks pushing communities toward other illicit activities, including methamphetamine production and trafficking.
Its implications on India
- Development interests: India invested about $3 billion between 2001 and 2021. These assets, goodwill, and unfinished projects remain exposed to Afghanistan’s internal stability, access to officials, and the basic functioning of state services.
- Counter-terror priority: The Taliban promise that Afghan soil will not host anti-India groups. At the same time, documented ties with foreign jihadist networks keep the security environment uncertain. This sustains a persistent terrorism and infiltration risk for India.
- Recognition choice: Russia recognises the Taliban and China has exchanged ambassadors. If India recognises Kabul, it could unlock cooperation and improve access, but it would also confer legitimacy and diminish leverage to influence behaviour. If India holds back, it risks shrinking diplomatic space as others move ahead.
- Regional posture: Seeing the Taliban simply as a counter to Pakistan has costs. It can make regional ties more hostile, and if armed groups grow stronger, India’s safety and image can suffer.
- Narcotics spillover: Growth in synthetic drugs and trafficking routes via the region can strain India’s law-enforcement and public-health systems.
Way Forward
- Sustain Diplomatic Engagement while Withholding Formal Recognition:
- Maintain a functional full embassy, regular high-level exchanges, and technical partnerships, without immediate formal recognition of the Taliban.
• Uphold conditional engagement, demanding assurances against the use of Afghan territory for terrorism targeting India, and keeping dialogue channels open for real-time intelligence sharing and security cooperation.
- Expand Targeted Development and Humanitarian Diplomacy:
- Continue needs-based development projects (healthcare, water, rural infrastructure, education), responding to urgent Afghan requirements and building grassroots goodwill.
• Invest in humanitarian aid (food, medicine, earthquake support) and publicly visible projects to counter Chinese and Pakistani influence, reinforce soft power, and stabilize communities.
- Strengthen Counter-terrorism Cooperation:
- Institutionalize intelligence exchange, joint investigations, and security sector capacity-building based on India’s 2011 Strategic Partnership Agreement with Afghanistan.
• Intensify cross-border anti-narcotics collaboration and border management to tackle trafficking and radicalization risks.
- Secure Economic Connectivity & Cooperation:
- Expand alternative trade and transit corridors, notably via Chabahar Port, revitalize the Air Freight Corridor, and develop resource-sector partnerships with robust contractual safeguards.
• Explore investments in minerals, water resource management, and sectoral modernization to create mutual incentives for regional stability.
- Balance Principles & Realpolitik:
- Engage with the regime on the basis of practical security and development needs, without losing sight of India’s advocacy for inclusive governance, minority protection, and women’s rights.
• Use multilateral forums to pressure for more inclusive policies and broader international engagement.
Conclusion
India should deepen contact but avoid premature recognition. Protect the $3 billion stake, prevent terror use of Afghan soil, and watch jihadist networks closely. Use targeted aid, connectivity, and regional coalitions to build leverage. Balance security needs with basic freedoms to support stability that serves Afghans and India alike.
Question for practice
Examine the key challenges faced by the Taliban regime and their implications on India.
Source: The Hindu
