India’s potential in Arctic region – Explained pointwise

The melting of the Arctic region, though is an impending climatic catastrophe, however, it also presents an opportunity for great geopolitical leverage as sea levels continue to rise which leads to emergence of new trade routes. This emerging commercial opportunity becomes even more important because of the potential headwinds from the tariffs imposed by the USA as well as development of partnerships between countries around supply chains & trade routes and also because of the climate change. Thus, it becomes important to analyse the situation from India’s point of view. 

What is the significance of Arctic region’s melting?

1. Climate Change Amplifier (Arctic Amplification): The Arctic is warming four times faster than the global average—a phenomenon called Arctic Amplification. As sea ice melts, white ice (which reflects sunlight) is replaced by dark ocean (which absorbs heat), further accelerating warming. This disrupts weather patterns worldwide, including the jet stream, contributing to extreme events like:

• Heatwaves in Europe and Asia
• Harsh winters in North America
• Unseasonal rainfall or droughts globally

2. Resources: The region is estimated to hold 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil, 30% of untapped natural gas, Rich deposits of rare earth elements and copper & valuable fishing grounds.

3. Northern Sea Route: According to NASA, the Arctic sea ice is melting at a rate of 12.2% per decade – which will eventually lead to the opening up of a new trade route called Northern Sea Route – connecting the Atlantic & the Pacific Oceans across the North Pole. The NSR is being hailed as the shortest route between Europe & Asia. India’s long term approach to explore new mega ports & new trade routes for not economic but also geopolitical significance also makes the NSR crucial.

What are the initiatives of India for Arctic region?

1. Svalbard Treaty (1920): India began its engagement with the Arctic early by signing the Svalbard Treaty in 1920.

2. Himadri = India is the only developing country, besides China, that has an Arctic research base – Himadri. 

3. India’s Arctic Policy (2022): This policy outlines India’s approach to its engagement with the Arctic region, recognizing the Arctic’s growing importance due to climate change, economic opportunities, and geopolitical shifts. The policy is structured around 6 main pillars i.e. Science & Research, Climate & Environment Protection, Economic & Human Development, Transportation & Connectivity, Governance & International Cooperation & lastly, National Capacity Building. 

4. Monsoon Research:  Institute of Governance & Sustainable Development and the National Council of Applied Economic Research collaborated recently to understand how changes in the Arctic, particularly the loss of sea ice, could influence India’s monsoon pattern & agricultural output.  

5. Observer Status in Arctic Council: India has held Observer status in the Arctic Council since 2013, participating in various working groups and contributing to scientific research.​

6. Arctic Circle India Forum: The Arctic Circle India Forum is an upcoming international conference scheduled to take place in May & it reflects the growing importance of the Arctic region for India. 

7. Research Initiatives: The National Centre for Polar and Ocean Research (NCPOR) in Goa leads India’s Arctic research, including the establishment of a research base in Svalbard, Norway.​

8. Scientific Expeditions: India has conducted multiple scientific expeditions to the Arctic, focusing on climate change studies and environmental monitoring.​

9. India-Russia Collaboration: 

• Establishment of a working group on the NSR under the bilateral intergovernmental commission on trade, economic, scientific, technical & cultural cooperation. 
• Chennai-Vladivostok Maritime Corridor also emerges as a potential bridge to the NSR ports such as Pevek, Tiksi & Sabetta. 

What can be the way forward?

1. Shipbuilding: India needs to boost its shipbuilding capacity to sail through the turbulent waters of NSR & grab the opportunity with both hands. It needs to increase the range, categories & capacity of the ships to suit the Arctic’s requirement & handle its harsh environment. India needs to make adequate investments in ice-breaking fleets & other structural upgrades to compete globally. 

2. Multilateral engagements: India needs to leverage the platforms like Arctic Circle India Forum to help contextualise the dialogue from an Asia- and India-focused lens. The forum should serve as an impetus to move the needle forward on India’s Arctic policy with stakeholder consultations & forging of partnerships. 

3. ‘Polar’ Ambassador: Recent developments have seen multiple nations appointing ambassadors to represent their interests in the Arctic region, reflecting the area’s growing geopolitical and environmental significance such as USA & Greenland appointing their respective Arctic Ambassadors. India can also take a leaf out of their books & appoint a Polar Ambassador for streamlining its efforts. 

4. Balance between Russia & USA:

• Russia with its vast Arctic coastline, extensive experience in Arctic navigation, training of personnel apart from being a trusted partner of India, is an obvious partner for India to explore the NSR. However, India’s incline towards the Russian Bloc would be implying support to China’s Polar Silk Road, which China is building as a northern extension of its Belt & Road Initiative – which India strongly opposes. Moreover, NSR is providing a much greater opportunity for China to not only grab control over the Arctic route but to completely bypass the Malacca strait choke point in the Indian Ocean.
• On the other hand, if India supports the Western Bloc & partners with the U.S., it could lose its perceived stake in the massive resources that currently fall under the Russian Sphere of Influence.
• Thus, India needs to balance USA & Russia and partner with like-minded nations like Japan & South Korea which share similar concerns about growing cooperation between Russia & China in the Arctic region. The trio should advocate the rectification of disparities within the Arctic Council & promote a more inclusive & equitable Council. 

Conclusion: 

While the commercial advantages of the Arctic melting are significant—fueling economic activity, investment, and geopolitical interest—they also come with high environmental risks, geopolitical competition & calls for sustainable and regulated development. Thus, it provides a double-edged opportunity – which India needs to smartly grab with both hands while preventing the reckless exploitation of the Arctic reserves.