India’s role in Russia-Ukraine Crisis-Significance and Challenges- Explained Pointwise

During the recent historic visit of India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Ukraine, India reiterated the need for sincere and practical engagement between all stakeholders, to develop innovative solutions that will have broad acceptability and contribute towards early restoration of peace. The reiteration of India’s willingness to contribute in all possible ways to facilitate an early return of peace, is a clear indication of India’s willingness to get involved in a search for peace in Russia-Ukraine crisis.

The article discusses India’s foreign policy stand on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the significance of the peace process and the challenges in finding peace in the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

What has been India’s foreign policy stand on the Russia-Ukraine crisis?

1. Non-alignment and strategic autonomy- India’s foreign policy stance has been driven by the historical principles of non-alignment and strategic autonomy. India has sought to balance its relationships with global powers and a peaceful negotiation of territorial disputes.

2. Neutrality and Abstention- Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, India has avoided taking sides. Much to the ire of the western states, which have wanted India to condemn the Russian role in the conflict, India has abstained on resolutions in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

3. Economic and Strategic Interests- India has continued to import discounted Russian oil, prioritizing its energy security amid rising global prices. However, at the same time, India has sought to reduce its dependence on Russian military supplies, recognizing the need for diversification in defence equipment procurement.

4. Settlement through institutional mechanisms– India has always advocated respect for the United Nations charter and peaceful settlement of disputes through institutions such as the UN.

This approach of India’s foreign policy was consistent with India’s broader strategy of managing complex geopolitical landscapes without compromising its national interests.

Heightened expectations of a more active role in the mediation process

a. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent diplomatic activities which includes his visit to Ukraine and Russia, conversations with U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and upcoming engagements at the UN meeting in September and the BRICS summit in Russia, have all heightened expectations that India may play a more active role in mediating the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

b. In communications with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emphasized the need for a cessation of violence. This diplomatic engagement highlights India’s intention to act as a mediator, even as it refrains from taking a definitive side.

What is the significance of PM’s recent visit to Ukraine and India’s intention of mediation?

1. Balancing act- The recent visit by the Indian PM is seen by analysts as a balancing act by India, especially after the PM’s recent visit to Russia, which attracted criticism from western powers.

2. Positioning as a neutral player- By engaging with both Russia and Ukraine, India could position itself as a neutral player in the conflict. This would reinforce its image as a responsible global actor committed to peace and stability.

3. Broader strategy to play a more active role as a mediator- This balancing approach aligns with India’s historical role as a mediator in international conflicts, in the Korean War armistice negotiations and the Colombo Plan. India seeks to leverage its unique position as a country that maintains strong ties with both Moscow and Washington, to play a more active mediation role.

4. Reinforcing the leadership of the Global south- India’s proposal at mediation, puts weight to the already ongoing effort from Global South countries in the negotiation. The push from India reinforces its prominence in the Global South.

What will be the advantages of peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

A temporary cessation of hostilities or a limited peace agreement facilitated by a neutral party such as India might serve the interests of all parties involved.

1. United States- For the United States, peace in the Russia-Ukraine crisis allows it to focus on other pressing foreign policy challenges, such as the West Asian geopolitical challenges.

2. European countries- The peace would help in the economic reconstruction and addressing energy insecurity. The peace in the Russia-Ukraine crisis would alleviate the challenges of energy shortages and inflationary pressures, and provide breathing room for European policymakers.

3. Russia- For Russia, engagement in negotiations through a neutral party such as India could offer an honourable exit from the conflict/war without appearing to surrender to western pressure.

4. India- India’s success as a mediator in the resolution of the conflict would align with his broader vision of India as a “Vishwamitra”, a country that contributes to global economic and technological advancements and plays a central role in maintaining international peace and security.

What are the challenges that India would face as a mediator in the Peace Process?

1. Maximalist position from both the sides- Both Russia and Ukraine remain focused on military gains, as seen by Russia’s attacks on Ukraine before PM Modi’s Moscow visit and Ukraine’s operations in Kursk Oblast before his Kyiv visit. The refusal of either parties to budge from their stands is a major challenge in the peace process.

2. Competing Demands- The situation is complicated by the firm positions of both sides: President Zelenskyy demands a complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine, while President Putin requires Ukraine to pull back from occupied regions and drop its NATO membership bid.

3. Conflicting interests of multiple actors- The involvement of various international actors in this war, highly complicates any negotiation process for peace in the Russia-Ukraine Crisis.

4. Deeply entrenched interests- The geopolitical interests of the U.S. and Russia are deeply entrenched, and both powers are unlikely to agree on a peace deal proposed by the other.

What should be the way forward?

1. Realistic assessment- Indian foreign policy establishment needs to make a realistic assessment whether Ukraine and its Western partners want India to get actively engaged as a mediator in the peace process.

2. Effective Conflict Mediation- India needs to define its own principles for a ceasefire and lasting peace. India should derive learnings from effective mediations like the Black Sea Grain Initiative and recent prisoner exchanges.

3. Learning from Historical Mediation Successes- India should also derive learnings from its successful interventions as a mediator in the Austria- Soviet crisis in 1950, Korean War Armistice negotiations and the Colombo Plan.

4. Overcoming Perceptions of Partiality- For effective mediation of the conflict, India should overcome perceptions of partiality towards Moscow.