India’s Strategic Challenges in the Face of China’s Rise

Source-This post on India’s Strategic Challenges in the Face of China’s Rise has been created based on the article “THE CHINA CHALLENGE” published in “Business Standard” on 26 July 2024.

UPSC Syllabus-GS Paper-2- India and its Neighborhood- Relations.

Context-This article discusses the evolving strategic rivalry between India and China, focusing on the challenges India faces due to China’s growing economic and military might. It emphasizes the need for India to develop a comprehensive strategy to address the power asymmetry and protect its interests.

What are the key aspects of the Sino-Indian strategic and economic asymmetry?

1)  Asymmetric Sino-Indian Rivalry- The Sino-Indian rivalry is both strategic and asymmetric. China far surpasses India in economic development, military modernization, technology, and innovation, with a gap of 3 to 5 times in various indices.

2) Economic Asymmetry- China is India’s largest trading partner, but this has led to a widening trade deficit for India. Additionally, China’s growing trade relationships with India’s neighbors complicate the economic relationship between the two countries.

3) Nuclear Capabilities– China is reportedly doubling its nuclear arsenal and upgrading its missile capabilities. As China closes the gap with the US, India finds it hard to match China’s growing nuclear power. This rivalry impacts the Indo-Pakistan nuclear balance and India’s efforts to achieve parity with China.

4) Space Program– China has a head start and more resources for its space program compared to India. Closing this gap will be challenging.

5) Conventional Forces- The material gaps between the Chinese and Indian forces are significant, with China’s military budget nearly three times larger than India’s. For ex- India’s navy is about one-third the size of China’s and will remain smaller even with future expansions.

Read More- On Potential of India-China Relations: A China-India partnership, its vast global potential

What are the reasons behind territorial contestation between China and India?

1) Challenges at the Line of Actual Control (LAC)-The Line of Actual Control (LAC) is unclear and complex, causing frequent skirmishes and risks. Current confidence-building measures are weakening and failing to ensure peace. Until borders are clearly defined, conflicts and violations will likely continue.

2) Factors Shaping PLA strategy along the LAC-

A) Expansion of road and rail infrastructure in Tibet and Xinjiang for quick troop movement.

B) Improved support infrastructure (electricity, water, etc.) for troops.

C) A new joint theatre command enabling large-scale, integrated use of PLA forces. These developments enhance the PLA’s ability to operate effectively in challenging conditions and respond swiftly in crises.

3) PLA Tactics -The PLA gradually asserts its claims, using Indian responses as reasons to escalate tensions. When standoffs reach a deadlock, they seek negotiations and disengagement. Their strategy is to achieve dominance without engaging in direct conflict.

What should be the way forward?

1) New Agreement-A new agreement is needed to address flaws in current protocols, manage risk-taking behavior, adapt to new technologies, and handle modern military issues like disengagement and troop reduction.

2) Addressing the Strategic Gap with China-

A) The power asymmetry between China and India, which may shift depending on India’s progress and China’s trajectory.

B) India’s timeline to catch up with China, particularly by 2035 and 2049, to avoid being outpaced.

C) Bridging the strategic gap requires political direction, economic reforms, military enhancements, and a clear security strategy. Efforts must be intensified to strengthen India’s position.

3) Defence Preparedness-

A) Ramp up indigenous capacity for strategic intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.

B) Strengthen strategic infrastructure along the Himalayas.

C) Develop life-sustaining troop infrastructure, including high-quality habitat, electricity, broadband, water, and oil pipelines.

D) Identify and acquire weapon platforms suited for extreme terrain and climatic conditions.

E) Maintain high readiness levels among border troops for quick response to border infractions.

F) Create and position agile and effective reserves for timely deployment.

Question for practice

What are the main elements of the strategic and economic imbalance between China and India? What factors contribute to the territorial disputes between the two countries?