Indus Water Treaty- Concerns and Way Forward- Explained Pointwise

Indus Water Treaty (IWT), which has survived 4 wars, decades of cross-border terrorism against India by Pakistan, and a long history of antagonism between the two countries, was suspended for the 1st time by India following the terrorist attack on the tourists in Pahalgam on 22/4.
Among the slew of diplomatic actions against Pakistan announced by India – including the closure of Attari border post, cancellation of visas – the suspension of the IWT may have the most far-reaching ramification. Thus, this calls for an analysis of the provisions of the Indus Water treaty, the associated concerns and the Way Forward to address these concerns.
Indus Water Treaty negotiated in 1960 between India and Pakistan is a landmark transboundary water-sharing mechanism. The Treaty has 12 Articles & 8 Annexures (from A to H). However, disagreements have persisted among both India and Pakistan over the treaty.
Before suspending the treaty, India had called for amendments in the treaty last year due to its dissatisfaction over the dispute resolution process, blaming Pakistan’s continued ‘intransigence‘ in implementing the treaty. Pakistan has also raised objections regarding India’s construction of Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects.

What is the History behind the introduction of the Indus Water Treaty? What are its main provisions?

History Behind the Indus Water Treaty

Main Provisions of the Indus Water Treaty:

What has been the significance of the Indus Water Treaty?

The Indus Waters Treaty has been largely successful in maintaining water cooperation between India and Pakistan for over 60 years, despite periods of political tensions and conflict between the two countries.

1. Only cross border water sharing treaty in Asia- The Indus water Treaty is the only cross border water sharing treaty between two nations in Asia.

2. Generous towards lower riparian state- It is the only water pact that compels an upper riparian state to defer to the interests of a downstream state. Pakistan has been given 80% share in the river water system. This is 90 times greater volume of water than Mexico’s share under a 1944 pact with the US.

3. Passed the Crisis test- The Permanent Commission set up as a part of the Dispute Resolution Mechanism under the treaty has met even during the 1965 and 1971 wars between India and Pakistan.

4. India’s Generosity- India’s respect for the values of trans-boundary river treaty is also a major factor behind the successful functioning of the treaty. India chose not to invoke the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, to withdraw from the Indus Water Treaty in the face of terror attacks like Indian Parliament in 2001, Mumbai in 2008, Uri in 2016 and Pulwama in 2019. 

5. Successful Model- The Indus Water Treaty serves as a successful model of cooperation between two rival countries.

What are the concerns with the Indus Water Treaty?

India’s Concerns:

1. Most Generous treaty- Experts have termed this the most generous water sharing treaty. The treaty has resulted in unequal sharing of the waters with 80% allotment to Pakistan. It is the only water-sharing pact in the world that compels upper riparian State to defer to the interests of the downstream State.

2. Prevents India from building any storage systems on Western Rivers- Despite the Indus water treaty providing for certain exceptional circumstances for building storage systems on Western Flowing Rivers, Pakistan has deliberately stopped such efforts. The extensively technical nature of the treaty allows Pakistan to stall legitimate Indian Projects.

3. Pakistan’s continued “intransigence” in India’s Hydroelectric Projects- In recent times disputes over the Kishenganga and Ratle hydroelectric projects have intensified. Although, they are ‘run-of the-river’ projects, which generate electricity without obstructing the natural flow of the river, Islamabad has repeatedly alleged that these violate the IWT. Also, Pakistan is directly seeking arbitration at The Hague, bypassing treaty-compliant proceedings. Pakistan’s proposal for a PCA mechanism in these hydropower projects is in contravention to the graded dispute settlement mechanism provided in Article IX of the IWT.

India had issued notices – first in 2023 & again in 2024 – to seek a ‘review and modification‘ of the agreement. The latest notice, which includes the word ‘review‘, signaled New Delhi’s intent to revoke and renegotiate the 64-year-old treaty. Article XII (3) allows for modifications through a new, ratified agreement between both governments.

4. Old and Outdated Treaty- According to the Departmentally Related Standing Committees on Water Resources report of 2021, present day pressing issues such as climate change, global warming and environmental impact assessment have not been taken into account by the Treaty. The Indus basin, which has been ranked as the world’s second most over-stressed aquifer by NASA in 2015, has been severely affected by climate change. India seeks renegotiation and amendments to the treaty for sustaining its burgeoning population.

5. Loss to Indian States in the Indus Basin- There have been substantial economic losses to the Indian States in the Indus River Basin. For ex- According to J&K Govt’s hired consultant report, J&K has been suffering economic losses to the tune of hundred of millions annually due to the Indus Water Treaty.

Pakistan’s Concerns:

1. Lower Riparian Concerns- As a lower riparian state, Pakistan fears infrastructure developments will reduce downstream flows.

2. Accusations of ‘Water Terrorism’- Pakistan accused India of “water terrorism” for the Shahpurkandi barrage project, despite the project’s compliance with the IWT.

3. Environmental Flow Issues- Pakistan insists on maintaining environmental flows, supported by the 2013 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling on India’s obligation to release flows downstream of the Kishanganga project.
4. Tied Hands of Pakistan: Dispute resolution mechanisms in the IWT will be of no use & assistance of Pakistan in case India decides to ‘revoke’ the treaty. As there is no provision in IWT about its duration or suspension, there is no avenue that Pakistan can approach for ‘revival’ of the treaty. Pakistan cannot approach the International Court of Justice to implement the treaty because of the Indian reservation given under the ICJ statute that bars the filing of a case by Pakistan against India.

What is the significance of suspension of IWT for India?

1. Strategic Pressure Tool (Diplomatic leverage): Suspension can be used to pressure Pakistan over cross-border terrorism and ceasefire violations. Demonstrates that tolerance has limits in bilateral relations.
2. Utilisation of resource: India can now create storage on western rivers – Indus, Jhelum & Chenab. After suspending the IWT, India can immediately stop sharing water flow data with Pakistan. There will be no design or operational restrictions on India for the use of water of the Indus & its tributaries.
3. National Sentiment and Sovereignty: Suspension of IWT reflects India’s assertion of sovereign rights over its rivers, especially amid growing public and political pressure after militant attacks like Uri (2016), Pulwama (2019) & now Pahalgam.
4. India can also stop visits by Pakistan officials to the 2 HEPs currently under construction in J&K – Kishenganga HEP on Kishenganga (a tributary of Jhelum) and Ratle HEP on Chenab.
5. India can undertake reservoir flushing (a technique used to remove accumulated sediments from reservoir by releasing water through low-level outlets to scour-out the sediments & transport it downstream) on the Kishenganga project, which will increase the life of the dam.
6. Climate and Water Security: With increasing water scarcity, India may prioritize domestic agricultural and drinking water needs over treaty obligations.

What are the Concerns with the termination or abrogation of the IWT?

Abrogating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between India and Pakistan could have serious consequences for the region:

1. Escalation of Geopolitical Tensions- Abrogation of the treaty is likely to escalate political tensions between India and Pakistan. This might heighten the risk of water conflicts between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

2. Threat to Regional Stability- The Indus river basin is shared by India, Pakistan, China and Afghanistan. Instability in the IWT could have ripple effects on water cooperation in the wider region.

3. Damage to India’s International Standing- Unilaterally suspending or withdrawing from the IWT could damage India’s image as a responsible global power. It may be a setback for future negotiations of water treaties, like the Teesta Water Treaty with countries like Bangladesh.

4. No ‘Exit Clause’: The IWT lacks an exit clause i.e. neither India nor Pakistan can legally abrogate it unilaterally. The treaty has no end date & any modification requires the consent of both the parties.

What Should be the Way Forward?

1. While the IWT cannot be exited, it does contain a dispute resolution mechanism: Article XI, along with Annexures F & G – which lays out procedures for raising grievances – first before the Permanent Indus Commission, then a Neutral Expert, and eventually, a forum of Arbitrators.

2. Integration of Ecological Perspectives- The ecological perspectives must incorporate Environmental Flows (EF) to sustain the Indus Valley ecosystems, as suggested by the Brisbane Declaration and the 2013 Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling on Kishanganga.

2. Recognisation of Climate Change Impacts- Strategies must be developed to manage climate change effects. India should explore the possibility of using climate change as a ‘change in circumstances’ to initiate conversation on renegotiation of the IWT.

3. Enhanced Water Data-Sharing- A World Bank-supervised, legally binding data-sharing framework should be established to monitor water quality and flow changes. Such estimates would add to the accuracy of each side’s dependence on the other in sharing the waters of these rivers.

4. Incorporation of International Legal Standards- The treaty provisions must be aligned with the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention and the 2004 Berlin Rules on Water Resources for sustainable water use.

5. Proactiveness on India’s part in utilization of allocated water share- As suggested by the standing committee of water resources, the canal systems in Punjab and Rajasthan should be repaired to increase their water carrying capacity. Also, India should take steps to completely utilize its entitlement of waters of Western Rivers.

6. Use of pressure tactic in case of escalation- As suggested by some experts, in case of escalation of hostilities by Pakistan in future, India can suspend the meetings of Permanent Commission. If the first state of dispute redressal is not functional, the subsequent two steps of 3-tier dispute redressal don’t kick in.

7. Internationalize Pakistan’s Violations: Instead of withdrawing, India can highlight Pakistan’s terror-related breaches as violations of peaceful cooperation under the treaty’s spirit.

Conclusion:
The Indus Waters Treaty, despite being resilient, is under increasing strain due to geopolitical tensions because of Pakistan’s continued support to cross-border terrorism, climate stress, and domestic water needs. While India has the right to re-evaluate its approach, outright suspension poses significant strategic and legal challenges. A calibrated approach of assertive diplomacy, technical readiness, and treaty modernization is the best path forward.