IPCC Assessment Reports: The problem of equity in IPCC reports

Source: The post IPCC Assessment Reports has been created, based on the article “The problem of equity in IPCC reports” published in “The Hindu” on 18th March 2024.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 3- environment-Conservation, environmental pollution and degradation, environmental impact assessment.

News: The article discusses a study that reviewed over 500 climate change scenarios from the IPCC. It found that these scenarios show ongoing disparities between rich and poor countries in income, energy use, and emissions until 2050. IPCC Assessment Reports

What are IPCC Assessment Reports?

IPCC Assessment Reports review scientific information about climate change. They include three Working Group reports:

a) Physical science aspects of climate change.

b) Climate adaptation strategies.

c) Mitigation actions to reduce climate change.

There’s also a synthesis report combining findings from all three groups.

These reports evaluate scientific literature to understand climate change’s scientific, technical, and socio-economic aspects.

The IPCC is currently in its Seventh Assessment cycle (AR7).

Over 500 scenarios were analyzed, reflecting on actions like reducing carbon dioxide emissions and increasing carbon sequestration.

How does IPCC assess future scenarios?

1. IPCC assesses future scenarios using Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs).
2. IAMs combine human, earth systems, economics, energy, and vegetation models.
3. These models consider: a) Macroeconomic trends like GDP growth, b) Future energy consumption patterns, c) Land-use changes, d) Climate evolution based on physics laws.
4. IAMs aim to offer policy-relevant guidelines for climate action.

5.However, these models prioritize least-cost assessments. For example, they assess the cost of solar plants or afforestation in different countries, but this approach may not equitably distribute climate action burdens between rich and poor countries

What did the recent study find?

The study analyzed 556 scenarios from the IPCC’s AR6 report. It focused on future emissions, mitigation actions, and carbon sequestration. Key findings include:

1. Persistent income, energy-use, and emissions disparities between developed and developing countries until 2050.
2. Regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, West Asia, and the rest of Asia, home to 60% of the world’s population, will have per-capita GDP below the global average in 2050.
3. Inequities in goods and services consumption, and energy and fossil fuel use, between the Global North and South.
4. Higher burden on developing countries for mitigation actions and carbon dioxide removal.

Why does equity matter in climate change?

1. Equity in climate change is crucial due to varied responsibilities and capabilities of countries.
2. The principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities are central to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 3 of the UNFCCC states that climate action should be based on equity, with developed countries taking the lead.
3. Richer countries have greater resources and historical contributions to climate change, implying they should shoulder more responsibility. Current climate models often overlook these equity principles, focusing mainly on technical and economic feasibility.

4.The study highlighted that modelled pathways need to align with equity, ensuring developed countries accelerate towards net negative emissions and leave the remaining carbon budget for less developed regions. However, the scenarios often project the opposite.

Question for practice:

Discuss the importance of equity in addressing climate change disparities.