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The recent escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict has put India’s stake in the West Asian region in danger. Iran launched hundreds of drones and cruise missiles towards Israel in response to the strike in Iranian diplomatic building in Syrian capital of Damascus on April 1, which killed a senior member of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards, and eight other officers. India has expressed ‘serious concern‘ at the escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict, and has called for ‘immediate de-escalation‘ of the conflict.
What is the history of Iran-Israel Conflict?
Iran and Israel have emerged from being friends to foes. The bitter hostility that prevails between the two nations did not exist until the Iranian revolution in 1979. The relationship has been on a downhill, from Cooperation to Conflict.
| Phase of Cooperation | |
| From 1948-1979 | The Pahlavi Dynasty (Mohammad Reza Pahlavi) which ruled Iran from 1925-1979 maintained close ties with Israel. Iran became the second Muslim-majority nation after Turkey to officially recognise Israel in 1948. Israel established a de facto embassy in Tehran. The two countries saw an extensive deepening of relations in the economic/trade (Iran became a major oil provider for Israel), military and security cooperation (SAVAK, the Iranian security and intelligence service was partly trained by Mossad) |
| Phase of Conflict | |
| After the Iran Revolution 1979 | After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was ousted and the new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, adopted a policy of standing up to “arrogant” world powers and adopted a pro-Palestine stand. Israel came to be known in Iran as the ‘Little Satan‘ to the ‘Great Satan‘ the US. Iran cut of all ties with Israel. Israeli embassy in Tehran was transformed into the Palestinian embassy. Flight routes between the countries were cancelled. Khomeini declared every last Friday of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan as Quds Day, on which large rallies are taken out in support of Palestinians across Iran. |
| Modern Phase of Conflict | Proxy Militias and Wars- Iran has been engaging in proxy wars by fighting supporting proxy militias against Israel like Hezbollah (Lebanon), Hamas (Gaza), Houthis (Yemen). Isreal is known to back Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), a Europe-based organization, Sunni organisations in Iran’s southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province, and Kurdish armed groups based in Iraqi Kurdistan. Attack on Iranian Nuclear Programme- The Iranian nuclear programme, which has been a primary focus of Israel, was attacked by US’ Struxnet computer virus in 2000s to target centrifuges enriching uranium as claimed by Iran. Further, there have been attacks on Iranian nuclear scientists. US withdrawal from Iran Nuclear Agreement- Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement in 2018 was seen as a blow to Tehran and a victory for Israel. |
What are India’s stake in the region which will be endangered by the recently escalating Iran-Israel Conflict?
1. Risks to the Indian Diaspora- The escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict poses a grave risk to the lives and livelihoods of the the large Indian Diaspora in West Asia. (~18,000 Indians in Israel, ~5,000-10,000 Indians in Iran, and around 90 lakh people Indians in the Gulf and Other West Asian region).
2. Endangers Energy security- Any escalation of the conflict will pose a grave threat to India’s energy security as the West Asia region contributes to India’s 80 per cent of oil supplies. The conflict will have an adverse impact on energy prices in India.
3. Endangers India’s economic growth- A surge in oil prices on account of the war would impact India’s economic growth, drive up inflationary pressures, disrupt the balance of trade and current account deficit, consequently exerting pressure on the rupee.
4. Risks to Indian Equity and Bullion markets- The Indian equity and bullion markets which are already facing the pressure of reduced FDI and FPI inflows due to interest rate hikes in US, will be further impacted by a full fledged war between Israel and Iran. For ex- Further Increase in the gold prices as previously witnessed in the Ukraine-Russia war and Israel-Hamas wars.
5. Derail the progress on the IMEC Corridor- The escalation of the Iran-Israel conflict will derail the progress made by India to build consensus in the turbulent West Asia on the India-Middle-East-Europe Economic corridor, which has strategic as well as economic benefits for Delhi
6. Diplomatic challenge of balancing strategic ties- The widening of the conflict will affect the balance of strategic ties maintained by India with both Iran and Israel. It would be difficult for India to maintain an ambivalent position in case of further worsening of conflict.
What is the importance of Iran and Israel for India?
Israel’s Importance for India
1. Economic and Commerce- India has a positive trade balance with Israel. India is Israel’s third-largest trade partner in Asia. The bilateral merchandise trade has grown from USD 200 million in 1992 to USD 6.35 billion (excluding defence).
2. Defence- India imports critical defence technologies from Israel. Nearly 41 % of Israel defence exports are to India. Indian armed forces use Israeli Phalcon AWACS (Airborne Warning And Control Systems), Heron drones to Barak anti-missile defence systems.
3. Energy- India has been awarded exploration license to extract and import natural gas from the Tamar and Levianthan gas fields. This is a clear sign of diversification of the relation from defence to energy sector.
4. Science & Technology- India-Israel Industrial R&D and Technological Innovation Fund (I4F) has been set up to promote, facilitate and support joint industrial R&D projects.
5. Space- In 2002, India and Israel signed a cooperative agreement promoting space collaboration. India has successfully launched TecSAR and RISAT-2 radar imaging satellites of Israel from PSLV of ISRO.
Iran’s Importance for India
1. Energy Security- Iran has been one of the major suppliers of crude oil to India. This has recently suffered due to US sanctions.
2. Similar Geopolitical concerns- Both countries have shared concerns on terrorism emanating from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Both Iran and India share similar concerns on Taliban’s treatment of minorities and the lack of an inclusive and representative government in Kabul.
3. Strategic location and projects- The Chabahar port of Iran developed by India is a strategic economic project, which acts as a gateway to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
| Read More- India-Israel Relations, India-Iran relations |
What should be the Way Forward for India?
1. Clarification of India’s Position- India has already called for the ‘immediate de-escalation‘ and ‘stepping back from violence‘ and ‘return to the path of diplomacy‘.
2. Balance engagements with other key actors in the Middle East- India must try to forever balance its engagement with key regional actors- Egypt, Iran, Israel, Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates– whose orientation and interests are often different in the middle eastern conflicts.
3. Pursue non-ideological engagements- India must pursue non-ideological engagement in the middle east region to complement India’s expanding interests in the Middle East.
| Read More- The Indian Express UPSC Syllabus- GS 2- International events affecting India’s interest |
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