Iran nuclear talks reverberate in the Gulf

News: Ongoing Vienna summit is exploring the possibility of the USA’s re-entry into a Joint Comprehensive Plan Of Action (JCPOA). Two parties that are not present, but will be most impacted, are Israel and the six states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

What is the stand of various countries and groupings?

Israel: It is focused on Iran‘s progress towards nuclear enrichment and nuclear weapons programmes of Iran. It has mobilized many serving and retired security officials for pressing harsh military actions on Iran.

GCC: It is pursuing a low-key but constructive approach to regional challenges – that of diplomatic engagement with Iran.

What factors are driving GCC’s diplomatic engagement with Iran?

USA’s credibility as GCC’s security partner was dented when the US failed to protect their interest in wake of Iranians attacks on their assets in 2019. American credibility further degraded with its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. This is further aided by Joe Biden’s disengagement from the region in favor of containing China in Indo-Pacific.

The maximum pressure approach or use of sanctions on Iran has failed to bring Iran to the negotiating table. USA and Israel have also highlighted difficulties in attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities.

What steps have been taken by Gulf countries?

UAE: It reached out to Iran in July 2019 for discussing maritime security. Following the assassination of Irani General Qassem Soleimani, UAE and Saudi Arabia called on the USA to reduce regional tensions. They seek to focus on crisis management and contract resolution.

Trade ties between the UAE and Iran’s imports from the UAE are expected to reach $12 billion.

UAE is also mending ties with Israel. UAE-Israel trade reaching $875 mn clearly demonstrates this.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have had five meetings in Baghdad – to rebuild confidence and re-establish diplomatic ties and address areas of conflict like Yemen and Syria.

Iran: It is seeking to revive JCPOA and seeking guarantees that the USA will not withdraw from the agreement in the future. Iran’s chief negotiator has visited Abu Dhabi to facilitate an agreement with the USA. To keep escalation levels lower, Iran said that it will not enrich uranium beyond 60% even if talks fail.

What are the models of regional security in West Asia?

There are two possible scenarios for regional security.

First, In the absence of a nuclear deal, Israel will push for the normalization of ties with Arab states to build a coalition of regional states against Iran. However, Gulf states will worry about regional instability due to this move.

Second, creating an inclusive security arrangement that will include Iran as a stakeholder. Steps for this have been taken through Saudi-Iran dialogue, UAE – Iran engagements, Baghdad conference and Riyadh summit of GCC states.

What will be the way forward?

The GCC states have taken matters into their own hands and are pursuing an inclusive regional security agenda aimed at normalizing ties and reducing conflict in the region. So, USA’s return to JCPOA has the potential of bringing peace to the region.

Source: This post is based on the article “Iran nuclear talks reverberate in the Gulf” published in The Hindu on 27th December 2021.