Source: The post Israel attacks Iran and escalates regional conflict has been created, based on the article “Endgame of a 2,611-year-old Jewish-Persian enmity” published in “The Hindu” on 14 June 2025. Israel attacks Iran and escalates regional conflict.
UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2-International Relations
Context: The June 13, 2025 Israeli military operation, “Rising Lion,” targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, marks a turning point in the long-standing Jewish-Persian conflict. Both Israeli and Iranian leaders acknowledge its historical weight, sparking fears of prolonged regional instability and global economic repercussions.
For detailed information on Iran-Israel Conflict and India’s stake read this article here
Historical and Strategic Background
- A Deep-Rooted Rivalry: The conflict draws from centuries-old tensions, beginning in 586 BCE. The latest phase escalates a legacy of hostility, now centered around Iran’s nuclear ambitions and Israel’s determination to counter them.
- The “Rising Lion” Offensive: Israel’s operation was swift and massive. Over 200 jets struck more than 100 strategic Iranian targets. Among them were key nuclear sites and the assassinations of high-ranking Iranian officials and scientists.
- Preparedness and Proxy Wars: This strike followed 21 months of conflict with Iranian proxies. Israel’s efforts included weakening Hezbollah and Hamas, engineering regime change in Syria, and upgrading its air and ground offensive capabilities.
Global and Regional Diplomacy
- Western Endorsements and Legal Cover: The IAEA condemned Iran just a day before the Israeli assault, possibly legitimizing it. The U.S., under Trump’s renewed leadership, intensified pressure on Iran through sanctions and military actions, particularly against Houthis.
- Saudi and Oil Politics: Saudi Arabia was pushed to break with OPEC+ curbs, aiming to financially strangle Iran. A global oil surplus was intended to block Iran’s covert oil exports.
- Outreach to Pakistan: Sudden U.S. diplomatic overtures to Pakistan, Iran’s largest neighbor, suggest strategic alignment to contain Iran’s influence from multiple directions.
Arab World and Regional Fallout
- Uneasy Arab Neutrality: The Sunni Arab states remain skeptical of both Israel and Iran. Their main concern is avoiding Iranian retaliation that could disrupt oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz or trigger unrest among Shia minorities.
- Terrorism Resurgence Threat: Instability from this conflict could enable a resurgence of terrorist networks like ISIS and al-Qaeda, further destabilizing the Middle East.
- Risk of Broader Backlash: Even though the Israeli attack focused on strategic targets, blowback or collateral damage could inflame regional tensions or invite retaliatory strikes against Arab allies of the West.
Uncertain Outcomes and Global Risks
- Possible Scenarios: If Israel achieves a quick, clean victory, Iran could be left weakened. But if Iran survives and responds, the war could escalate beyond the initial scope, undermining Israeli strategy.
- Iranian Nationalism and Resistance: A prolonged assault may consolidate domestic support around the Iranian regime, rallying a previously uncommitted population under the banner of national defence.
- Economic Ramifications: Widening conflict could worsen inflation, destabilize global markets, disrupt supply chains, and intensify geopolitical uncertainties—countering Trump’s claims of ending “endless wars.”
Future Prospects and Strategic Lessons
- Complex Endgame: Initial goals may not be realized. Like Iraq post-Desert Storm, Iran might not collapse as expected but adapt and retaliate.
- Risk of Escalation and Regime Change: A prolonged war could compel U.S. involvement and lead to regime change in Iran or a redrawing of regional power dynamics.
- Strategic Miscalculations: Iran’s costly pursuit of nuclear deterrence, estimated at $100 billion, may have undermined its own security. The current conflict could be proof of that unintended consequence.
Question for practice:
Examine the regional and global consequences of Israel’s “Rising Lion” operation against Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure.
