The recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas marks a significant breakthrough in the 15-month-long conflict that began with Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Mediated by Qatar, the United States, and Egypt, the deal focuses on ending hostilities, facilitating the exchange of hostages and prisoners, and delivering humanitarian aid to Gaza. While promising, the ceasefire is fragile, and several critical questions remain unanswered.
What are the key aspects of the Proposed Agreement?
The proposed Gaza ceasefire agreement announced on May 6, 2024, for an exchange of detainees and prisoners between Israel and Hamas aims to secure the release of all Israeli detainees in Gaza in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, along with steps toward a ceasefire, reconstruction, and humanitarian relief. It unfolds in three stages over 126 days:
| First Stage (42 days) | |
| Cessation of Hostilities | a. Mutual halt of military operations; Israeli forces withdraw from densely populated areas to positions near the Gaza border. b. Restrictions on Israeli air operations for 10-12 hours daily. |
| Humanitarian Relief and Reconstruction | a. Immediate entry of humanitarian aid, including 600 trucks daily, 50 carrying fuel. b. Resumption of essential services like electricity and healthcare; plans for rubble clearance and shelter for displaced persons. |
| Prisoner Exchange | a. Hamas releases 33 Israeli detainees (alive or dead), including women, children, and the elderly, in return for an agreed number of Palestinian prisoners. b. Phased release schedule, including provisions for women and minors detained after October 2023. c. Israel lifts penalties against prisoners and improves their conditions. |
| Preparations for Next Stages | Discussions on the second phase begin by day 16, addressing further prisoner exchanges and conditions. |
| Second Stage (42 days) | |
| Sustainable Calm | a. A formal ceasefire will be declared. b. Exchange of all remaining Israeli men (civilians and soldiers) for additional Palestinian prisoners. c. Full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. |
| Third Stage (42 days) | |
| Final Exchange and Reconstruction | a. Exchange of the bodies of the dead from both sides. b. Long-term reconstruction of Gaza’s homes and infrastructure over 3-5 years, with international oversight. c. Complete lifting of the Gaza blockade. |
| Guarantors of the Agreement: Qatar, Egypt, the United States, and the United Nations will oversee the implementation of the agreement. | |
What are the Challenges and Unanswered Questions with the Ceasefire Agreement?
1. Hostage and Prisoner Details– It remains uncertain how many hostages are alive, whether Hamas knows the locations of all hostages, and which prisoners Hamas insists on freeing.
2. Fragility of the Agreement-
a. Past ceasefires between Israel and Hamas have often broken down due to skirmishes or escalations.
b. The complex timetable and distrust between the parties mean even minor incidents could derail the process.
3. Question marks on Israel’s Objectives- While Israel has weakened Hamas’s operational and governing capabilities, it has not completely destroyed them, raising questions about the long-term implications of the ceasefire.
What are the reasons for the Israel-Palestine Dispute?
1. Normalisation of Relations between Israel and Arab World- Abraham Accords was signed between Israel and UAE, Bahrain in 2020. Later Sudan and Morocco joined in 2020. Saudi Arabia and Israel have also been coming together for various economic projects like IMEC. Hamas wants to disrupt this normalisation of relation between Israel and the Arab countries.
2. Hamas’s aim of taking leadership of Palestinian cause from the Palestinian Authority(PA)- The Palestinian Authority (PA) is the official government of the Palestinians that signed the Oslo Peace Accords with Israel but it never resulted in the promised Palestinian state. The PA today is riddled with corruption, misgovernance and has lost legitimacy. Hamas through this attack has been trying to take leadership of the Palestinian cause from the PA.
3. Support to Hamas operations by Hezbollah ,Iran and Qatar- Hamas is being provided logistical, technological and intelligence support by terrorist organisations like Hezbollah operating in Lebanon and funding by Iran and Qatar.
4. Unresolved Jerusalem Dispute- Both Israel and the Palestinians hold competing claims to the city. Israel, which occupied the formerly Jordanian-held eastern part in 1967, regards the whole of Jerusalem as its capital. The Palestinians insist on East Jerusalem as their future capital. This has resulted in Intifada like the Al-aqsa intifada.
5. Increasing Israeli Settlements in West Bank- Since 1967, Israel has built about 140 settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem. They are considered illegal by most of the international community, though Israel disputes this. Palestinians say all settlements must be removed for a Palestinian state to be viable.
6. Border Dispute- Israel and Palestine have dispute on the border. Palestinians insist on borders based on ceasefire lines which separated Israel and East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza between 1949 and 1967. However, Israel insists on an extended eastern border stretching up to the Jordan River.
7. No Consensus on Palestinian Statehood- No consensus has been developed over the status of Palestinian Statehood among PLO and Israeli officials. Further Israel insists that any peace deal must include Palestinian recognition of it as the “nation-state of the Jewish people”.
8. Political Division among Palestinians- The Palestinians remain politically divided between Fatah and Hamas, and thus are unable to negotiate jointly. Further, Israel is unwilling to negotiate with the violent group Hamas.
9. Lack of pursual of peace process- Both Israel and Hamas have not been following the path to achieve peace in the region. Israel has continued to build settlements in the West Bank, raising security barriers and checkpoints, limiting Palestinian movements, and never hesitating to use force or collective punishment to keep organised Palestinians under check. But the recent attacks from Hamas killing 700 Israelis does not help the Palestinian cause. It has only escalated the conflict.
What should be the other ways forward?
Adoption of the Arab Peace Initiative offer- This offer was proposed by the Saudi Arabia in the name of all Arab countries in 2002. This offer required the creation of a Palestinian state on the lands Israel occupied in the Six-Day War of 1967. In return, Israel would be fully recognised and accepted. .This offer can be the only basis for a lasting peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
Need to treat it as Israel-Arab conflict rather that Israel-Palestine(Hamas) conflict- The conflict is not only between Israel and Palestine but also with other Arab countries such as Egypt, Jordan, Iran, Syria. All of them should participate in the negotiations and the final agreement should be recognized formally by each one of them along with UN general assembly and security council.
UNSC must step up- UNSC must broker a peace talk between the two warring fractions. Global leadership platforms must be used to not let middle east become another theatre for warfare.
Ensure proper adherence to UNSC resolution 2334- UNSC resolution 2334 concerns the Israeli settlements in Palestinian territories occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem.The illegal Israel settlements in West Bank must be removed at the earliest.
Follow the ICC ruling of February 2021- The February 2021 International Criminal Court (ICC) ruling should be implemented in spirit. It allows the ICC to investigate persons committing war crimes in the Palestinian Territories of the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
India should act as a mediator- India has good relations with both the Arab World and Israel. Instead of India choosing side in the war, it must use its soft power and diplomatic outreach to solve the dispute.
The ceasefire is a temporary pause in a protracted conflict, with both sides leveraging its terms for strategic gains. The agreement underscores the need for sustained diplomatic efforts to address the underlying issues and achieve lasting peace in the region.
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