Source: The post Israel Iran conflict may reshape West Asian power balance has been created, based on the article “What is Netanyahu’s endgame in Iran?” published in “The Hindu” on 18 June 2025. Israel Iran conflict may reshape West Asian power balance.
UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2-International Relations
Context: Israel launched a large-scale air offensive against Iran on June 13, targeting its nuclear infrastructure and top leadership. This triggered a fierce missile response from Iran, escalating tensions. The core issue now revolves around Israel’s endgame and the possible outcomes of this ongoing conflict.
For detailed information on Israel attacks Iran and escalates regional conflict read this article here
Escalation and Immediate Impact
- Initial Israeli Strikes and Objectives: Israel struck Iran’s Natanz nuclear site, missile bases, command centres, and key leadership figures, claiming to dismantle Iran’s nuclear programme. It also hit civilian targets, including media headquarters.
- Iranian Retaliation: In response, Iran fired about 400 missiles, damaging sites in Israel, such as the Haifa oil refinery and a major research facility near Tel Aviv.
- State of Air Superiority and Limitations: Though Israel has air dominance, it lacks the bunker-busting capabilities required to destroy Iran’s deeply buried Fordow facility. Iran continues to retaliate despite the damage to its military leadership.
- Effectiveness and Domestic Pressure: With key nuclear facilities still functional and Iran’s missile power undiminished, Israeli citizens face continued attacks. The closure of Ben Gurion Airport and civilian casualties have raised pressure on Netanyahu to resolve the war quickly.
Challenges in Achieving War Goals
- Incomplete Destruction of Nuclear Assets: IAEA reported significant damage at Natanz and Isfahan but minimal impact on Fordow. Israel has not fully crippled Iran’s nuclear capacity.
- Iran’s Continued Resistance: Despite initial setbacks, Iran is maintaining strong retaliation through drones and missiles, countering Israel’s hope of a quick victory.
- Risk of Prolonged Conflict: With fortified Iranian sites intact and growing international concern, Israel risks being locked in a costly and indecisive conflict.
Strategic Options Before Netanyahu
- Regime Change via State Collapse:,Netanyahu may continue bombing with the aim of regime collapse in Tehran. He even hinted at assassinating Ayatollah Khamenei. However, mass bombings may unite Iranians rather than weaken the regime, as public anger shifts toward Israel.
- Return to Diplomacy: Iran has reportedly sent signals through Gulf nations indicating willingness to negotiate if bombings cease. Trump also expressed openness to a deal, but Israel’s aggression suggests diplomacy was never its true goal.
- Drawing the U.S. into War: Israel seeks direct U.S. involvement, claiming prior approval for its attacks. Though Trump denies military participation, he warned Iran against targeting U.S. assets. Israeli pressure for American help continues, aiming to shift the war’s trajectory.
Regional and Global Implications
- Shifting Power in West Asia: A weakened Iran would strengthen Israel’s position. With Syria’s Assad isolated, militant networks damaged, and Gaza devastated, Israel faces little resistance in the region.
- Impact on Global Powers: Russia’s influence may diminish if Iran collapses. China’s energy dependency on the Gulf will deepen. Trump, though reluctant now, may be forced into the war if escalation continues.
Conclusion
The conflict has reached a critical juncture with no clear outcome. Whether through continued bombing, diplomatic negotiations, or expanded war, Israel’s actions are reshaping the regional order.
Question for practice:
Evaluate the strategic options available to Israel in its ongoing conflict with Iran and their potential consequences.
