Mark The Sea That Blows Hot & Cold

Source: The post is based on the article “Mark The Sea That Blows Hot & Cold” published in The Times of India on 4th September 2023.

Syllabus: GS1- Geography- Important Geophysical phenomena (El Niño)

News: The article talks about strange weather patterns this year. It asks if El Niño is really causing the Indian monsoon drought. It also points out that predicting monsoons is tricky due to things like global warming and specific sea-surface temperatures.

What is El Niño?

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What’s different in El Niño this year?

Typical El Niño Patterns: In standard El Niño years, the eastern Pacific gets warmer, leading to decreased rainfall in places like Indonesia.

Western Pacific Temperatures: This year, instead of being cooler, the western Pacific has temperatures that are slightly warmer than normal.

Western Indian Ocean Temperatures: Similarly, the western Indian Ocean is also warmer than what is typically expected during an El Niño.

Rainfall Anomalies: Contrary to usual El Niño patterns which cause rainfall deficits, the Indonesian Seas are receiving more rain.

Indo-Pacific Tripole: This year’s sea-surface temperature patterns, termed the Indo-Pacific Tripole (It refers to the sea-surface temperature (SST) patterns across three key regions: the western Indian Ocean, the Indonesian Seas, and the Eastern Pacific.), are not consistent with what’s usually seen during El Niño.

Impact on Indian Monsoon: The relationship between this year’s unusual El Niño and the Indian monsoon remains uncertain and not fully understood.

What are the reasons for these differences?

Reasons for Differences in El Niño This Year:

Atypical SST Patterns:

Both the western Pacific and the western Indian Ocean are showing temperatures warmer than usual.

This deviates from the typical warm-cold-warm pattern of the Indo-Pacific Tripole expected during an El Niño.

Positive Rainfall Anomalies:

Contrary to usual El Niño conditions that result in rainfall deficits in the Indonesian Seas, there’s an increase in rainfall.

Possible Influence of Global Warming:

A similar atypical pattern was detected in 2009, which was a drought year.

A study from 2012 indicated that this unusual El Niño pattern might overlap with global warming trends.

Unfamiliar Pattern:

The observed pattern isn’t commonly associated with El Niños.

It’s challenging to determine if this unique pattern will become frequent in future El Niños or if there’s another factor at play.

What are its implications for India?

Uncertain Monsoon Impact: The different Indo-Pacific Tripole pattern brings uncertainties about El Niño’s effect on the Indian monsoon.

Forecast Challenges: The unexpected pattern emphasizes the need to predict specific sea-surface temperature patterns, not just the El Niño index.

Economic Preparations: The government has taken proactive measures, regulating exports of grains and onions in anticipation of potential effects.

Anxiety for the Remaining Season: With the unusual patterns observed, there’s anticipation and concern regarding how the rest of the monsoon season will play out.