Myanmar faces conflict and suffering without solution

Source: The post Myanmar faces conflict and suffering without solution has been created, based on the article “Four years on, Myanmar and its continuing nightmare” published in “The Hindu” on 1st February 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- International Relations – India and its neighbourhood- relations.

Context: The article discusses Myanmar’s ongoing crisis since the 2021 military coup. Armed conflict continues, displacing millions. ASEAN and the UN failed to mediate. China’s influence has grown. Elections seem unlikely to bring peace. Myanmar’s people suffer while leaders refuse dialogue.

For detailed information on On The Myanmar Crisis read Article1, Article2

What is the current situation in Myanmar?

1. Ongoing Conflict: Armed battles continue across Myanmar between the military, ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), and people’s defense forces (PDFs).
2. High Casualties and Arrests: The military has arrested 28,405 people, with 21,683 still detained. It has killed 6,224 people, while 2,900 deaths remain unverified.
3. Mass Displacement: Over 3.3 million people are internally displaced due to violence.
4. Failed Elections: The military’s attempts to hold elections have failed. Half of the country is beyond its control.

Who are fighting in Myanmar?

1. Myanmar’s Military (Junta): The military seized power in a coup on February 1, 2021, overturning the 2020 election results. It uses force to suppress opposition.
2. Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs): These groups control parts of Myanmar, especially near borders. They have long resisted military rule.
3. People’s Defense Forces (PDFs): Civilian groups formed after the coup to fight the military. They operate across the country, including in central regions.
4. National Unity Government (NUG): An unrecognized government coordinating resistance.

What role is ASEAN playing?

1. ASEAN was given the responsibility to mediate Myanmar’s crisis after the 2021 coup.
2. It introduced the Five-Point Consensus (5PC) to stop violence and start dialogue.
3. The plan failed because both the military and resistance groups rejected negotiations.
4. ASEAN foreign ministers advised Myanmar’s military to focus on dialogue instead of elections.
5. The military ignored ASEAN’s advice and continued violent suppression.
6. Elections under current conditions will not represent the people, as half the country is outside military control.
7. ASEAN’s mediation remains ineffective, leaving Myanmar in deep crisis.

How are Myanmar’s Neighbors Responding?

1. China’s Influence is Growing: Since the coup, China has expanded its role in Myanmar. It remains the most powerful external player.
2. Border Areas Under Rebel Control: Myanmar’s borders with India and Bangladesh are controlled by Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs). The government has lost authority there.
3. India-Bangladesh Issues: Relations between India and Bangladesh are strained. This prevents coordinated action.
4. Thailand’s Limitations: As an ASEAN member and neighbor, Thailand is well-placed to help but lacks sufficient influence.
5. Lack of Regional Consensus: Due to mistrust, neighbors have not formed a unified strategy to resolve Myanmar’s crisis.

What is the future for Myanmar?

Myanmar’s people cannot rely on outside help. If leaders continue fighting instead of negotiating, the suffering will continue. Without dialogue, the conflict will not end, and civilians will keep paying the price.

Question for practice:

Examine the role of ASEAN in mediating Myanmar’s crisis and the reasons for its failure.