GS Paper II – International Relations
Context: Myanmar’s military junta has announced plans to conduct elections under a tightly controlled framework, nearly five years after the 2021 coup that overthrew the elected civilian government. The move seeks to gain domestic legitimacy and international acceptance, even as violence, repression, and civil conflict persist. For India, this creates a strategic dilemma between supporting democratic values and safeguarding geopolitical and security interests in its neighbourhood.
About the Myanmar Elections
- The proposed elections are being scripted by the military, with opposition parties dismantled, leaders jailed, and civil liberties curtailed.
- The polls aim to provide a veneer of legitimacy to continued military rule rather than restore genuine democracy.
- India shares a 1,600 km porous border with Myanmar, making stability there crucial for internal security and regional connectivity.
- China’s deepening influence in Myanmar further complicates India’s strategic calculus.
Challenges for India created by the Myanmar Election
Democracy vs Realpolitik
- Supporting the junta risks undermining India’s democratic credentials.
- Open opposition may push Myanmar further into China’s strategic orbit.
Border Security Concerns
- Ongoing conflict has led to refugee inflows, arms trafficking, and insurgent movement across the India–Myanmar border.
- Instability affects India’s Northeast security architecture.
Weak Regional Consensus
- ASEAN’s divided response limits multilateral pressure on the junta.
- India lacks strong regional mechanisms to influence outcomes.
● Connectivity and Act East Setback: Projects like the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Transport Project and India–Myanmar–Thailand Trilateral Highway face delays due to unrest.
● Limited Diplomatic Leverage: India’s influence over Myanmar’s military leadership remains constrained compared to China.
Way Forward
● Principled Pragmatism: Maintain engagement with Myanmar while clearly articulating support for inclusive and credible political processes.
● Support Regional Diplomacy: Work closely with ASEAN to push for dialogue, ceasefire, and humanitarian access.
● Focus on Border Management: Strengthen border infrastructure, intelligence sharing, and humanitarian assistance for refugees.
● Diversify Engagement: Engage civil society, ethnic groups, and democratic stakeholders alongside official channels.
● Counterbalance External Influence: Expand economic, development, and people-to-people ties to prevent strategic overdependence on China.
Conclusion
Myanmar’s military-scripted elections are unlikely to restore democracy but may entrench authoritarian rule. For India, the challenge lies in navigating a delicate balance between democratic values and strategic necessities. A calibrated policy—combining engagement, regional cooperation, and principled pressure—offers the most sustainable path to protect India’s long-term interests while supporting stability and democratic aspirations in its neighbourhood.
Source: The Hindu
