Need of Cyclone prediction in India

Source: This post onNeed of Cyclone prediction in Indiahas been created based on article “Why better prediction of cyclone intensity, heavy rainfall is needed” published in The Hindu on 30^th December 2024.

UPSC Syllabus topics: GS 3- Disaster Management

Context: The article underscores the urgent need for improving the prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and associated heavy rainfall, emphasizing the profound societal and environmental consequences of these phenomena. Tropical cyclones, although infrequent in the North Indian Ocean basin compared to other regions, pose a significant threat to densely populated coastal areas, as exemplified by past events like the Bhola cyclone of 1970. Need of Cyclone prediction in India

Why is better prediction of cyclone intensity and heavy rainfall important?

1. Tropical cyclones are among the most devastating natural disasters, causing widespread destruction and loss of life.
2. Despite having fewer cyclones compared to other regions, the North Indian Ocean basin is highly vulnerable due to its densely populated coastal areas.
3. The Bhola cyclone of 1970 serves as a grim reminder of the catastrophic potential of such events.
4. Observations show shifts in cyclone patterns, intensity, and frequency, highlighting the need for improved forecasting and adaptive measures.

What are the trends in tropical cyclone activity in the North Indian Ocean?

1. Bay of Bengal vs. Arabian Sea: The Bay of Bengal experiences more cyclones than the Arabian Sea. However, the Arabian Sea has seen a 52% increase in cyclonic storms and a threefold rise in the duration of very severe cyclonic storms in recent years.
2. Intensification: There is an increased likelihood of cyclonic storms intensifying into severe cyclonic storms. Satellite-era data indicates a rising trend in accumulated cyclone energy over the North Indian Ocean.
3. Environmental Drivers: Rising ocean heat content and decreasing vertical wind shear contribute to these trends.

How might climate change impact tropical cyclones in the future?

1. Anthropogenic Climate Change:
   1. Likely to result in more powerful cyclones.
   2. Tropical cyclone precipitation rates are projected to increase due to higher atmospheric moisture levels.
2. Key Changes:
   1. Higher frequency of rapid intensification events.
   2. Poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity.
   3. Slower forward movement of tropical cyclones.

What made Cyclone Fengal unique and challenging?

1. Trajectory and Impact:

1. Cyclone Fengal followed an unusual path, making landfall near Puducherry on November 30, 2024.
2. It stalled upon reaching the coast, maintaining intensity until December 1 due to a balanced steering flow and moisture from saturated soils.

1. Rainfall:
   1. Unprecedented rainfall: Puducherry and Villupuram districts recorded 40-50 cm in a single day.
   2. Neighbouring districts like Cuddalore and Tiruvannamalai received over 20 cm in 24 hours.
   3. The deluge caused catastrophic agricultural losses and disrupted livelihoods.
2. Forecasting Challenges:
   1. IMD accurately predicted the landfall near Puducherry three days in advance.
   2. However, the cyclone’s northeastward movement on November 27 and its stalling near the coast were not accurately forecasted.

Why do weather prediction models struggle with heavy rainfall forecasting?

1. Fengal’s Case:
   1. None of the models predicted the exceptional 40+ cm rainfall totals in 24 hours.
   2. Challenges arose from limited observational data over oceans and the complex cloud dynamics within the cyclone.
2. Broader Issues:
   1. Forecasting rapid intensification and heavy rainfall during landfalls remains difficult.
   2. Advancements in modeling techniques and real-time data assimilation are crucial.

What actions are needed to improve cyclone forecasting?

1. Critical Areas for Research:
   1. Predicting rapid intensification.
   2. Forecasting heavy rainfall during landfall.
2. Investments:
   1. Sustained investments in advanced forecasting technologies and research.
   2. Addressing gaps in observational data and improving modeling capabilities.
3. Climate Models:
   1. IPCC projections indicate more intense cyclones with heavier rainfall and slower speeds, making research more urgent.

Why is improving cyclone predictions essential?

Despite progress, precise predictions of cyclone behavior remain a challenge. Enhanced forecasting can safeguard lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems from the devastating impacts of tropical cyclones, ensuring resilience in vulnerable regions.