On the Global Nuclear Order

Source: This post on the Global Nuclear Order has been created based on the article “The Global Nuclear Order is under strain” published in “The Hindu” on 3rd January 2024.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2 International Relations – Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate.

News: The article discusses the global nuclear order (GNO) – its formation, elements, successes and failures. It also highlights the emerging challenges to GNO.

What is the global nuclear order (GNO)?

The GNO was created during the Cold War. Following the Cuban Missile Crisis, both US and USSR understood two things:

First, they needed bilateral mechanisms to prevent tensions from escalating to the nuclear level.

Second, the spread of nuclear weapons should be curbed.

This is how the GNO came into being. According to the author, it is presently under strain.

Note- Cuban Missile Crisis 1962: Confrontation between US and USSR, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey were matched by Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba. Both countries came very close to launching a nuclear war.

What are the elements of GNO?

1. Hotline/Communication Link: It was established in 1963 to enable the leaders of the two countries to communicate directly. It was later upgraded into nuclear risk reduction centers.
2. Arms Control Agreements: It was followed by arms control negotiations. This led to the formation of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 1968.
3. Controls on Transfer of Nuclear Technology: The third element was formed in 1975 following India’s underground peaceful nuclear explosion (PNE) in 1974.

7 countries (USA, USSR, UK, Canada, France, Japan, and West Germany) concluded that export controls were urgently needed to ensure that nuclear technology, transferred for peaceful purposes, not be used for PNEs. This became the Nuclear Suppliers Group.

What have been the positive outcomes of the GNO?

The GNO has performed well on the following fronts:

1. Taboo against nuclear weapons usage: Humanity has survived 75 years without going to nuclear war.
2. Success of Non-proliferation: Only 4 countries have since gone nuclear (India, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan). Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan that hosted Soviet nuclear weapons were denuclearised.
3. Crisis Management: Emergency communication links provided crisis management stability.
4. Nuclear Deterrence: There was a shared notion of ‘strategic stability’ guaranteed by the enormous nuclear arsenals with the US and USSR. This ensured deterrence.

Where has the GNO failed to achieve its objectives?

Nuclear Arsenals Kept Growing: Due to the US-USSR nuclear race, their arsenals grew from 28,000 bombs in 1962 to over 65,000 bombs in the early 1980s.

How is the changing geopolitical scenario negatively impacting GNO?

1) China’s Assertiveness: China has steadily built up its naval and missile capabilities.

There are also concerns about USA’s deterrence guarantees, especially in East Asia – Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. It is possible that the USA may support independent nuclear deterrent capabilities to handle the rivalry with China.

2) Withdrawal From Nuclear Treaties: In 2002, the U.S. withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and in 2019, from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. The New START treaty will lapse in 2026. Last year, Russia de-ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), raising concerns about the resumption of nuclear testing.

3) Active Proliferation: There were no reactions by the USA when Israel and Pakistan went nuclear. More recently, the nuclear submarine AUKUS deal with Australia, a non-nuclear weapon state, is raising concerns.

4) Shift in Japan’s Stance: There has been a recent shift in Japan’s anti-nuclear sentiment, visible in its decision to increase defence spending.

Question for practice:

Discuss the evolving dynamics of the global nuclear order in the 21st century in the midst of the rapidly changing geopolitical scenario.