Reading the tea leaves: 

Reading the tea leaves: 

Context:

The emerging India-Japan alignment sets the stage for the reordering of the Asian strategic landscape

Two trend lines

• The shift of the geopolitical centre of gravity from the Euro-Atlantic to the Indo-Pacific region and the rise of China.
• Most of the rivalries are being played out in the crowded geopolitical space of the Indo-Pacific, and Asian economies now account for more than half of global GDP and becoming larger in coming years.

China’s policy:

• According to China’s President Xi Jinping’s ‘two guides’ policy announced in February, China should guide ‘the shaping of the new world order’ and safeguarding ‘international security’.
• China has suggested ‘a new type of great power relations’ to the U.S.
• Its assertiveness in the East China Sea with Japan and in the South China Sea with its Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) neighbours sends a signal that while multipolarity may be desirable in a global order, in Asia, China is the predominant power and must be treated as such.
• During the past few years, it has set about creating a new set of institutions (the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank) and launched the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to create a new trading infrastructure that reflects China’s centrality as the largest trading nation.
• In addition to Gwadar, China is now converting the supply facility at Djibouti into a full-fledged military base.

Accelerating the trends:

• By invoking ‘America first’ repeatedly, President Donald Trump has made it clear that the U.S. considers the burden of leading the global order too onerous. American allies, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, are nervous about Mr. Trump’s harangues that they are enjoying the benefits of the U.S. security umbrella on the cheap.
• Recent nuclear and long-range missile tests by North Korea have added to South Korean and Japanese anxieties.
• Japan has been particularly rattled by the two missiles fired across Hokkaido.
• Another significant development was the Doklam stand-off between India and China .

Tussle areas:

• Differences with China did not begin with Doklam.
• It was preceded by the stapled visa issue for Indians belonging to Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir, growing incidents of incursions along the disputed boundary, blocking of India’s bid to join the Nuclear Suppliers Group last year.
• Preventing the inclusion of Masood Azhar from being designated as a terrorist by the UN Security Council by exercising a veto.
• The gap between India and China has grown, both in economic and military terms, and with it has emerged a more assertive China.

Critical dimension to the ‘global partnership’ between India and Japan:

• It is against this backdrop that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe’s visit to India took place last week.
• The relationship became a ‘Special Strategic and Global Partnership’, Japan was invited to join in the Malabar naval exercises and a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation was concluded.
• A singular achievement was the conclusion of the agreement for Cooperation in the Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy last year.
• This was a sensitive issue for Japan given the widespread anti-nuclear sentiment (though Japan enjoys the U.S. nuclear umbrella) and (misplaced) faith in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
• To deepen strategic understanding, the two sides initiated a 2+2 Dialogue involving the Foreign and Defence Ministries in 2010.
• A memorandum on enhancing defence and technology/security cooperation was signed and talks on acquiring the amphibious maritime surveillance ShinMaywa US-2i began in 2013.
• Trilateral dialogue involving both the U.S. and Japan and covering strategic issues was elevated to ministerial level in 2014.
• Japanese participation in the Malabar exercises, suspended because of Chinese protests, was restored in 2015.
• Once the agreement for the 12 US-2i aircraft is concluded with a follow-up acquisition as part of Make in India, the strategic relationship will begin to acquire critical mass.
• The strategic partnership needs stronger economic ties.
• Today, India-Japan trade languishes at around $15 billion, a quarter of trade with China while Japan-China trade is around $300 billion.
• The Mumbai-Ahmedabad high speed rail corridor is more than symbolism, in demonstrating that high-cost Japanese technology is viable in developing countries and that India has the absorption capacity to master it.
• Another major initiative is the recently launched Asia-Africa Growth Corridor to build connectivity for which Japan has committed $30 billion and India $10 billion.