Russia – Ukraine crisis | Timeline

“Explained: What are India’s stakes in its ties with Ukraine and Russia?” – The Indian Express – 31st Jan 22

Ukraine has become a bone of contention in Russia’s relations with the Western countries.

Currently, Russian troops are near the border of Ukraine and NATO’s forces on standby in case Russia attacks Ukraine.

The crisis began when Russia told Western powers that it had a list of demands. Among the most important demand was that Ukraine should never be allowed to join NATO. The US and the West have ruled this out. Currently, the two sides are negotiating these demands in Paris, France.

“Brinkmanship over Ukraine doesn’t bode well for India” – Livemint – 1st Feb 22.

The territory of Ukraine was established in the ninth century as Kievan Rus on the banks of the Dnieper River. 

In medieval history, western and northern Ukraine had been occupied by Poland and southern Ukraine by Tartars (descendants of Mongol invaders). 

In the 17th century, Cossacks recovered much of the territory from Poland and established a Hetmanate that is the forerunner of today’s Ukraine. This Hetmanate entered into various treaties with Imperial Russia that made it a vassal state. 

18th century: Russia annexed much of the territory of today’s Ukraine and Crimea during this period. When the Bolshevik revolution established the Soviet Republic in Russia, Ukraine was engaged in a civil war for independence. 

In 1921, the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (UkSSR) was established, when the Red Army conquered two-thirds of Ukraine. The western third became a part of Poland. In Russia, the Ukrainian territory has been referred to as “Little Russia“. In a surprise move, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred Crimea to Ukraine, despite an ethnic composition in Crimea that was two-thirds Russian. 

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine declared independence in 1991. A new democratic constitution was adopted in 1996 and a new currency hryvnia (a Kievan Rus term) was introduced. 

“Explained: What are India’s stakes in its ties with Ukraine and Russia?” – The Indian Express – 31st Jan 22

Russian military build-up near Ukraine can impose several implications for India. It can complicate India’s objectives vis-à-vis Russia, China, the US, Europe, and even Ukraine.

India is concerned about Russia’s “muscle-flexing” and external intervention in national matters. But India does not want to jeopardize the close military ties with Russia. Almost 60% of India’s military supplies are Russian manufactured.

At the same time, the US and Europe are both important partners from India’s strategic calculus. Many American platforms have been used for reconnaissance and surveillance along the India-China border.

Another concern for India is the small Indian community in Ukraine, comprising mostly students in medical colleges.

“Why India needs to pay attention Russian military build-up in Ukraine” – Indian Express – 21st Jan 22

Push Russia towards China: A Russian invasion and a rupture with the US and its allies would lead to pressure on India to choose between the Western alliance and Russia. This would further lead Russia more inclined towards China. There is a possibility that a similar situation like in Cuba missile crisis might occur when Russia needed Beijing’s backing. It resulted in Soviet support for ally China versus friend India at a crucial moment in the China-India war.

Complicate India’s efforts to balance ties: It would complicate India’s efforts to maintain a delicate balance between its partnerships with the US, Europe, and Russia. Post the Russian annexation of Crimea, India neither openly criticized nor endorsed Russian actions. However, Russia can use India’s silence as an endorsement, as it did in the case of Crimea, and recently when it unilaterally issued a joint statement on Afghanistan.

Shifting attention: The deteriorating situation in Europe could draw US attention away from the Indo-Pacific theatre-like visible in Afghanistan and Middle East crises. This would make it difficult for India to bring the USA attention towards the rise of China.

Moreover, in order to focus on the Russian challenge, European capitals could seek to stabilise ties with China, rather than act against its assertive actions.

“India’s Ukraine dilemma” – Indian Express – 22nd Feb – 22 India did not speak against Russia in 1956 at the Soviet invasion of Hungary, while India denounced the Anglo-French attempt to seize the Suez Canal. Similar Indian is silenced over the invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 to crush Prague Spring, while India criticized the US invasion of Vietnam.Even now, India criticizes Chinese aggression but is silent about Russian actions in Ukraine.

Why India’s approach must not be influenced by the views of NATO or Russia?

First, there are no takers for a broad sphere of Russian influence in Central Europe. Neither former Warsaw members nor Baltic or ex-Soviet states.

Second, Russian security concerns are legitimate, but they can best be addressed through political accommodation.

Third, few central European countries buy into the French argument of European sovereignty and strategic autonomy. They are more inclined towards the US-led NATO as a security guarantor.

Fourth, though these countries are keen on the US and EU security umbrella, they are not keen to adopt political values antithetical to their traditional values.

Fifth, central European countries are also working to develop regional institutions like Visegrád Four – Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia and other institutions like the “Three seas initiative”.

Thus, India’s policy should be based on an independent appreciation of the geopolitics of Central Europe.

India’s stance in UN Security Council

“Strategic choice: India is right not to pick a side on Ukraine” and “Russia welcomes India’s stand on eastern Ukraine situation” – Times of India and The Hindu – 19th February 2022.

India in the UNSC said that the safety of Indian nationals is its uttermost priority. It urged all the parties to continue to engage through all possible diplomatic channels. India believes a solution can be found through dialogue under the Normandy format and the Minsk Agreements. It advised all the parties to avoid all the steps that can lead to increased tension and put a risk to international peace and security.

Normandy Format: It is a diplomatic grouping created in June 2014 to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict in Ukraine due to Russia’s military aggression. It is an informal forum that was set up by France, Germany, Russia, and Ukraine.

“On Kyiv, Sit On The Fence” – The Times of India – 14th Feb 22

While abstaining voting from UNSC on the Ukraine issue, India advised parties to find a solution considering the security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region.

According to Foreign Affairs Minister, India is working on the principle of the policy of multi-alignment, depending on context and issue at stake. India’s national interest and national security are linked to maintaining her strategic autonomy, especially in an East-West conflict.

But, the ongoing Ukraine crisis has led to experts talking about India’s neutral stance on US and Russia tension.

How do the experts’ view the neutral stand of India?

Some international scholars believe that India cannot hold on to this neutral stand for long. This is incorrect as many successive governments in India, from Jawaharlal Nehru’s to Narendra Modi’s, have repeatedly asserted India’s right to adopt an independent stand based on its national interests without aligning itself with any particular military bloc unless this was necessitated by national interest.

From the 1962 war or the 1971 war or on other occasions, the Indian position has been defined by national interest. India’s independent voice in international affairs is a manifestation of its national self-image

NATO’s reaction to Ukraine crisis

“Denial of access to SWIFT is a blunt tool for geopolitics” – Livemint – 15th Feb 2022

NATO has threatened to cut-off Russia from the international SWIFT payment network if Russia attempts to invade Ukraine.

What is the Russian stand on the ongoing crisis?

“On Kyiv, Sit On The Fence” – The Times of India – 14th Feb 22

Russia repeatedly asserts that it seeks recognition that Ukraine will not be accepted as a NATO member. While the USA insists that Russia is going to invade Ukraine. The recently issued Russia-China joint statement suggests that the alliance of Eurasian powers is here to stay. Russia seeks to build its alliance with China to weaken the USA now.

“Brinkmanship over Ukraine doesn’t bode well for India” – Livemint – 1st Feb 22

According to Russia, Russians and Ukrainians are one people, and “Russians, Ukrainians, and Belarusians are all descendants of Ancient Rus, which was the largest state in Europe.

To stop this crisis, Russia also offered to fully withdraw its troops and missiles from its eastern front. But, in return, it wanted that Ukraine should not be allowed to join Nato.

What is the reaction of West Countries?

West countries will put sanctions on Russia if it tries to invade Ukraine. It will include cutting off Russian access to the international payment system called Swift, which will have severe economic consequences on the Russian economy.