Significance of recognizing the pattern of global warming

Source-This post on Significance of recognizing the pattern of global warming has been created based on the article “The patterns of global warming are more important than its levels” published in “The Hindu” on 11 February 2024.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS paper 1- Important Geophysical Phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone etc., geographical features and their location-changes in critical geographical features (including water-bodies and ice-caps) and in flora and fauna and the effects of such changes.

News– According to the author, no one has been able to fully explain the patterns of warming associated with the earth’s surface, when the temperature exceeds 1.5 degrees C warming threshold.

What is the 1.5 degrees C warming threshold?

This was included in the Paris Agreement after intense negotiations by member-countries of the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). However, 1.5 degrees C is not a scientific threshold.
This number was based on understanding of European politicians who felt in 1990s that they can achieve a target of limiting the temperature below 2 degrees C.

What are the different methods used to measure temperature change?

At present, there are various methods to measure the temperature change. The new study published in nature has discussed so called “ palaeo proxies” method.

This method uses chemical evidence stored in various organic matter, such as corals, stalactites, and stalagmites, to approximate the temperature at some point in the past.

In this method, researchers carefully calibrate the various chemical compounds assimilated by some species into their biogenic materials — such as calcium carbonate. This helps in establishing the relationships between those chemicals and the prevailing local temperature.

What is the limitation of this method?

1) Present methods are limited in the sense that they extrapolate the data from a single location and use historical evidence to draw global conclusions.

2) Based on this method, they calculate global temperature averages without considering spatial variations.

For example, there has been no studies to explain some unusual patterns like impacts of El-Nino on the amount and the distribution of the 2023 unusual Indian monsoons.

3) There is only indirect evidence of temperature changes with respect to a baseline temperature. This evidence can’t measure the actual overall temperatures.

What should be done?

There is a critical need to understand the specific patterns of warming on a global scale, instead of focusing on breaching threshold, because-

1) Recognizing warming patterns is important to manage the disasters associated with global warming.
2) The local warmings and cooling’s and their magnitudes determine the net effect of global warming in a particular locality hence they cannot be generalized.
3) We need to recognize patterns to adapt to the changing seasons and to minimize impact on lives, livelihoods, and economies.

Conclusion

It is important to keep the global warming patterns in mind rather than focusing a lot on arbitrary threshold number that do not have a scientific basis.