Strange bedfellows in West Asia

Strange bedfellows in West Asia

News:

A new regional paradigm has led to covert ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Important Facts:

Complex Reasons

• Israel and Saudi Arabia were the two countries most resolutely opposed to the 2015 international agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme
• Both opposed the Iran nuclear agreement – the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). And both want to see much tougher action taken against Tehran’s spreading influence.
• Saudi Arabia is engaged in a fierce competition with Iran for influence in the Persian Gulf and wider West Asia
• Iran is a potential challenger to Israel’s nuclear monopoly in West Asia and uses its influence to impede Israeli dominance of the region.
• Saudi and Israel, both countries are perturbed by recent developments in US policy, particularly the reluctance to use force against Iran and Syria, and signs of a gradual shift away from the problems of the Middle East.

Outcome expected due to improved relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia:

• Economic Benefits – Saudi Arabia’s lead in establishing relations with Israel likely to induce other Arab states, especially the oil rich monarchies of the Gulf, to open their economies to Israeli investment and technical expertise, thus bringing Israel substantial economic benefits.
• Solving Israeli-Palestinian conflict – The Israeli government estimates that improved relations with the Saudi regime, the “guardian” of Islam’s two holiest sites, will help resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to Tel Aviv’s satisfaction.
  • This means Israel continuing to control the entire territory between the River Jordan and the Mediterranean Sea without giving the Palestinians any civil or political rights.
• Maintaining Status Quo – Israel feels that with Saudi help, the status quo could be made acceptable to other Arab and Muslim countries as well since several of them, such as Egypt and Pakistan, are heavily dependent upon Saudi largesse.
• Preventing the democratization of Arab – Israel and Saudi Arabia have a common interest in preventing the democratization of Arab countries. Authoritarian governments in the Arab world allow Israel to parade itself as the only democracy in West Asia.

Impact of Khashoggi murder

• Jamal Khashoggi was a journalist who was once a Saudi government insider, but had gone into self-imposed exile in the U.S. in 2017. He’d become an outspoken critic of the Saudi Arabia’s powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
• The controversy is particularly damaging for Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), who spent millions to project himself as a social and economic reformer who could lead Saudi Arabia into the 21st century.
• MBS, who many believe ordered the killing, has been the focus of intense criticism. cannot, therefore, afford to take greater political risks at this moment by continuing the talk with Israel.

Why Saudi Arabia and Iran are bitter rivals

• Saudi Arabia and Iran – two powerful neighbors – are locked in a fierce struggle for regional dominance.
• Iran is largely Shia Muslim, while Saudi Arabia sees itself as the leading Sunni Muslim power.
• Historically Saudi Arabia, a monarchy and home to the birthplace of Islam, saw itself as the leader of the Muslim world. However, this was challenged in 1979 by the Islamic revolution in Iran which created a new type of state in the region – a kind of theocracy – that had an explicit goal of exporting this model beyond its own borders.
• The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq overthrew Saddam Hussein, a Sunni Arab who had been a major Iranian adversary. This removed a crucial military counter-weight to Iranian influence in Iraq, which has been rising since then.
• Uprisings across the Arab world caused political instability throughout the region. Iran and Saudi Arabia exploited these upheavals to expand their influence, notably in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, further heightening mutual suspicions

How have things suddenly got worse?

• In Syria, Iranian (and Russian) support for President Bashar al-Assad has largely routed rebel group groups backed by Saudi Arabia.
• Saudi Arabia is trying desperately to contain rising Iranian influence and the militaristic adventurism.
• There are also external forces at play. Saudi Arabia has been emboldened by support from the Trump administration while Israel, which sees Iran as a mortal threat, is in a sense “backing” the Saudi effort to contain Iran.

Conclusion:

• Common hostility towards Iran and their close security relationship with the U.S. will eventually prompt Saudi Arabia and Israel to resume their covert relationship However, their contacts are likely to remain frozen until the Khashoggi murder recedes from public memory.
• Dialogue helps maintain regional stability, and will certainly not hurt in promoting a political settlement. Yet it is highly doubtful that Saudi Arabia, which purports to lead the Gulf states, will grant Israel the elements of normalization straight away.
• True progress in the political process between Israel and the Palestinians may expand the basis of common interests and allow Israel to demand greater support from Saudi Arabia to promote political initiatives and assist in building the Palestinian state.