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News: India may record around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 to February 2027 due to unusually high temperatures associated with the current “Super El Niño.”
About Super El Niño
- El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that affects weather patterns around the world.
- How it is developed:
- During El Niño, the trade winds become weaker, allowing warm water to move towards the eastern Pacific.
- Normally, these winds push warm water towards Indonesia and Australia.
- When the winds weaken, warm water moves towards the central and eastern Pacific.
- This makes the Pacific Ocean warmer than normal and reduces the rise of cold water.
- The main area of rainfall and rising air also moves eastward.
- The Walker Circulation, which controls air movement over the Pacific, becomes disturbed. This changes winds, rainfall and air pressure in many regions.
- Frequency: It usually occurs every two to seven years.
- Categorization: Scientists identify El Niño by measuring the temperature of the Pacific Ocean compared with its normal temperature.
- A temperature that is 0.5°C above normal indicates a weak El Niño.
- A temperature that is 1.0°C above normal indicates a moderate El Niño.
- A temperature that is 1.5°C above normal indicates a strong El Niño.
- A temperature that is 2.0°C or more above normal indicates a very strong El Niño.
- Recently, Pacific Ocean temperature reached 3.05°C above normal in September 2026, which is an exceptionally high level.
- Scientists and meteorologists classify El Nino as “super” when ocean surface temperatures reach or exceed 2.0°C for a few months.
Note: The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) does not officially use the term “super El Niño” because it is not part of their standardized operational classifications.
- However, it has predicted that the current El Niño may become very strong.
- A very strong El Niño could cause major changes in rainfall and temperatures around the world.
Super El Niño Impacts on Weather
- Rise in global temperature: Super El Niño can make global temperatures rise significantly because the Pacific Ocean becomes much warmer than normal.
- Heatwaves can become more frequent and intense, even in areas far away from the Pacific Ocean.
- Excessive Rainfall: Some regions may experience heavy rainfall and flooding because El Niño changes normal rainfall patterns.
- Southern South America and parts of Central Asia may receive more rainfall, which can increase the risk of serious floods.
- Drought: Southern Africa, Central America and Australia may become drier, increasing the risk of drought.
- Southern Africa, Central America and Australia may face drought, with potentially severe consequences for crop yields and energy production from hydropower.
- Hurricane activity can increase in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño.
- Wildfires may become more likely in dry regions because higher temperatures and lack of rainfall create drier conditions.
- India Context: India may experience changes in rainfall, and a weak monsoon associated with El Niño can affect agricultural production.
- India may record around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths from September 2026 to February 2027 due to unusually high temperatures.
