Sustaining India’s Low-Fertility Future

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 1- population and associated issues

Introduction

India has entered a new demographic phase as its Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined to 1.9, below the replacement level of 2.1. The country has become a low-fertility nation, but not one demographic economy, as fertility levels vary widely across States and between rural and urban areas. This shift moves India’s focus from population growth to ageing and will shape its labour market, economy, healthcare, migration and social security in the coming decades.

Understanding India’s Fertility Transition

1. Declining Fertility Levels: India’s TFR has fallen from 4.3 in 1985 to 1.9 in 2024. The decline has been steady, and current trends suggest it may fall below 1.6 by 2031.
2. Below Replacement Fertility: A TFR below replacement means births are no longer enough to replace the parent generation. In India, replacement fertility is estimated at about 2.15–2.2 because of a skewed sex ratio at birth and higher female mortality.
3. Regional Differences: Fertility levels differ widely across States. Delhi (1.2), Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal (1.3) have very low fertility, while Bihar (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.6), Madhya Pradesh (2.4) and Rajasthan (2.3) remain above or close to replacement levels.
4. Rural-Urban Divide: Rural TFR is around 2.1, while urban TFR has fallen to 1.5. As urbanisation expands, the national fertility rate is likely to decline further.
5. Changing Family Aspirations: Couples are increasingly choosing smaller families. The earlier preference for two children is gradually shifting towards one-child or no-child families, especially in urban areas.
6. Reasons Behind the Decline: Higher female education, delayed marriage, financial pressures, better access to contraception, urbanisation, and the decline of joint families have reduced fertility across the country.

Key Demographic Trends and Emerging Concerns

1. Different Demographic Stages Across States: India has entered low fertility as a country but not as a single demographic economy. Some States are ageing rapidly, while others will continue adding young workers over the next two decades.
2. Population Momentum: India’s population will continue growing for some time because of a large working-age population and rising life expectancy. However, today’s lower fertility will reduce the size of the future workforce.
3. Growing Elderly Population: India currently has about 150 million people aged 60 years and above. This number is projected to reach 347 million by 2050, nearly one-fifth of the population.
4. Changing Dependency Pattern: A smaller workforce and a larger elderly population will increase pressure on pensions, healthcare and public finances. The demographic burden will become more visible between 2045 and 2060.
5. Migration and Labour Mobility: Ageing States will increasingly depend on workers from younger States. They should treat migrant workers as citizens who sustain their economies rather than temporary labour, while ensuring portable welfare benefits across States.
6. Global Comparison: Delhi’s TFR is 1.2, while Kerala, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal are at 1.3. These levels are lower than the United States (1.6), Finland (1.4) and Japan (1.3), showing that some Indian States have already entered very low-fertility levels.

Socio-Economic Challenges of a Low-Fertility India

1. Weak Fiscal Capacity: Unlike many developed countries, India is entering population ageing before building a strong tax base, formal workforce and welfare system.
2. Large Informal Workforce: Most workers are employed in the informal or semi-formal sector. Since their incomes are uncertain, they cannot regularly contribute to pension schemes meant for formal employment.
3. Limited Social Security: Existing pension support remains inadequate for old-age security. The Atal Pension Yojana depends on regular contributions, while the National Social Assistance Programme provides only ₹200 per month for people aged 60–79 and ₹500 for those above 80.
4. Growing Elderly Dependence: NITI Aayog estimates that 70% of elderly people depend on others and 78% have no pension coverage. This shows the need for a basic inflation-indexed minimum pension floor along with contributory pension systems.
5. Changing Family Support: Joint families, co-resident children and unpaid family care have long supported elderly people. Urbanisation, migration, nuclear families and women’s educational and work aspirations are weakening this traditional support system, making stronger public care and welfare systems increasingly necessary.
6. Healthcare Burden of Ageing: Healthcare needs are shifting towards long-term management of hypertension, diabetes, dementia, disability and palliative care. Geriatric care must become part of nursing, primary healthcare and district health planning.
7. Political and Regional Impact: States with very low fertility may face reduced parliamentary representation, tighter labour supply and higher costs of supporting an ageing population, while younger States will continue adding workers.

Way Forward for a Sustainable Low-Fertility Future

1. Strengthen Social Security: Build an inflation-indexed minimum pension floor to provide basic income security for elderly people who remain outside formal pension systems.
2. Expand Geriatric Healthcare: Continue mission-mode public investment by integrating geriatric care into primary healthcare, nursing practice and district health planning.
3. Invest in Younger States: Improve education, healthcare and skill development so that young workers from high-fertility States can access better employment opportunities.
4. Ensure Portable Welfare Benefits: Welfare entitlements should move with migrant workers across State borders. A national labour market cannot depend on benefits linked only to domicile.
5. Support Productive Employment: Create productive jobs in younger States while preparing ageing States to absorb migrant workers as equal contributors to their economies.
6. Encourage Evidence-Based Policy: Updated demographic data should guide public debate and policymaking as India prepares for long-term demographic change.
7. Strengthen Public Care Systems: As family support declines, public welfare, elderly care and social protection systems should gradually take greater responsibility.

Conclusion

India’s low-fertility future is now a reality rather than a distant possibility. The country must prepare for aging while using its remaining demographic dividend. Stronger social security, healthcare, skilled employment and portable welfare are essential. As traditional family support weakens, stronger public institutions must gradually take greater responsibility for ensuring a sustainable and inclusive demographic transition.

Question for practice:

Evaluate the implications of India’s declining fertility rate for its economy, labour market, healthcare system, and social security, and suggest measures to ensure a sustainable low-fertility future.

Source: The Hindu