The Challenge of Holding the Quad Together

UPSC Syllabus: Gs Paper 2- Constitution of India

Introduction

The Quad experienced strategic turbulence in 2025 due to shifting U.S. geopolitical priorities and changing bilateral political dynamics, particularly between Washington and New Delhi. However, ministerial meetings and operational cooperation continued despite weakening political alignment. The proposed Quad Leaders’ Summit in Manila in November 2026 is therefore important for renewing the members’ shared commitment and clarifying the United States’ role in the Indo-Pacific.

Background: Evolution and Objectives of the Quad

1. Nature of the grouping: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) is an informal strategic forum comprising India, Australia, Japan and the United States. It has no permanent bureaucracy or institutional structure.
2. Revival in 2017: The Quad was revived during Donald Trump’s first presidency, giving fresh momentum to cooperation among the four countries in the Indo-Pacific.
3. Core objective: The grouping seeks to promote a free, open, inclusive and prosperous Indo-Pacific, based on regional stability, cooperation and respect for international law.
4. Mode of cooperation: The Quad functions through leaders’ and foreign ministers’ meetings and practical initiatives, rather than a formal treaty-based military alliance.

Significance of the Quad

1. Strategic balance: The Quad provides a platform for its members to coordinate their approach to China’s growing influence and assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific.
2. Maritime security: Cooperation in maritime domain awareness and surveillance helps members monitor regional waters and respond to emerging maritime security concerns.
3. Rules-based order: The grouping supports sovereignty, international law and peaceful dispute settlement, particularly in the South China Sea and East China Sea.
4. Economic and technological resilience: Cooperation on infrastructure development, critical technologies and resilient supply chains helps strengthen regional economic security and reduce vulnerabilities arising from excessive dependence on individual countries.
5. Regional public goods: The Quad extends its cooperation beyond traditional security through initiatives in health security, vaccine distribution and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR).

Recent Developments: Continuity of Quad Cooperation

1. Proposed Manila Summit: The leaders of India, Australia, Japan and the United States are expected to meet in Manila in November 2026, alongside the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit. This would be their first summit-level meeting since Donald Trump began his second presidential term.
2. Japanese leadership: The proposed meeting would also be the first Quad summit attended by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi since she assumed office.
3. Previous summit: The last Quad Leaders’ Summit was held in Wilmington in 2024 under U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. India was expected to host the subsequent summit.
4. Ministerial engagement: The Quad Foreign Ministers met twice in Washington in 2025, with the first meeting marking Marco Rubio’s first engagement as U.S. Secretary of State. In 2026, they met three times in New Delhi, Manila and Atlanta.
5. Maritime initiative: In May 2026, the Quad elevated its Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness initiative to the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration framework, launched in New Delhi following the Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.
6. Importance of summits: Without a permanent institutional structure, leaders’ meetings provide an important platform to reaffirm the Quad’s shared purpose and set its agenda for the coming months.

Challenges to Quad Unity

1. Shifting U.S. priorities: Trump’s second-term focus has been shaped by the Russia-Ukraine war, transatlantic relations, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the war in West Asia.
2. Uncertainty over U.S. engagement: Washington has not publicly expressed disinterest in the Indo-Pacific, but regional partners remain cautious about a fundamental shift in its engagement.
3. Burden-sharing concerns: Trump’s expectation that partners contribute more towards the transatlantic security architecture has raised concerns among Indo-Pacific countries about the future nature of U.S. security commitments.
4. AUKUS review: The White House’s decision to review the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) partnership has increased uncertainty among Indo-Pacific countries and encouraged them to diversify their security policies.
5. Continuing U.S. security role: The United States remains a significant security actor, especially in the Pacific, where several like-minded countries are embedded in its security architecture.
6. China and regional flashpoints: China’s expanding footprint is worsening maritime security, while Washington’s role remains important in safeguarding the strategically critical Taiwan Strait.

Regional Responses: Diversification of Strategic Partnerships

1. Japan’s security outreach: Through its One Cooperative Effort Among Nations (OCEAN) framework, Japan is deepening strategic alignment with partner countries and reshaping its post-war security posture.
2. Australia’s defence partnerships: Australia is strengthening defence ties with India, Japan, Southeast Asian countries and Pacific Island countries to deter China’s growing regional footprint.
3. India’s multi-alignment: India continues to diversify defence and strategic ties with like-minded countries across the Indian Ocean and the wider Indo-Pacific.
4. JAI cooperation: The Japan-Australia-India (JAI) Defence Ministers’ meeting in Cebu signals their willingness to deepen cooperation regardless of Washington’s regional role.
5. France’s engagement: France is strengthening ties with regional countries to help sustain a balanced security environment in the Indo-Pacific.

Way Forward

1. Reset American posture: President Trump should use the Manila Summit to clarify Washington’s regional priorities and reset American engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
2. Reaffirm the Quad’s commitment: The four leaders should demonstrate their shared commitment to regional security and collectively oppose China’s growing maritime assertiveness.
3. Sustain maritime cooperation: Members should build on the maritime surveillance framework to address the worsening maritime security environment and China’s expanding regional footprint.
4. Reinforce ASEAN centrality: Hosting the summit in the Philippines reinforces ASEAN centrality, one of the Quad’s foundational strategic pillars, amid ongoing sovereignty disputes between Manila and Beijing.
5. Uphold sovereignty and international law: Leaders are expected to reiterate respect for sovereignty in the South and East China Seas and condemn attempts to disregard international law.

Conclusion

The Quad has maintained practical cooperation despite political differences and uncertainty over U.S. priorities. Its future depends on renewed political commitment and continued American engagement. The Manila summit offers an opportunity to reaffirm ASEAN centrality and the members’ commitment to sovereignty, international law and a stable, balanced Indo-Pacific.

Question for practice:

Examine the challenges facing the Quad amid shifting U.S. geopolitical priorities and discuss the measures needed to sustain its unity and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.

Source: The Hindu