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The cost of deterrence
News:
- Martand Jha, SIS, JNU has analyzes how the balance of strategic nuclear power has evolved over the past two decades in South Asia.
Important Analysis
- On May 11, India celebrates its 20 years of nuclear tests at Pokhran, which put India into de facto status as the sixth nuclear power nation of the world.
- On May 28, 1998, just a fortnight after India’s tests, Pakistan also became a nuclear capable state.
- With this test Pakistan deter India from undertaking any major action, conventional or nuclear, against it, even if the situation demanded it.
- Nuclear weapons programmes reduce the power gap between two unequal conventional weapon states. The deterrence effect of nuclear weapons makes nuclear war less likely.
- On two occasion, December 2001 Parliament attack and the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks, India’s potential for military action seemed to be have been deterred by Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal.
- Being a responsible state, India couldn’t afford to risk a nuclear strike by Pakistan in the face of Indian escalation, especially as India likely believed Pakistan’s intention of using its nuclear arsenals, including “theatre nukes”.
- It is also argued that less responsible usually provoke responsible one to use nuclear weapons against the latter without fearing its own annihilation, in the event of a massive retaliation.
- India’s ‘no first use policy’ for its nuclear weapons give Pakistan a power of deterrence. Pakistan did not need to install its nuclear weapon with a fear of disproportionate consequences.
- In the nuclear context, deterrence is a powerful force because of the overwhelmingly destructive nature of these weapons.
- Both South Asian countries in last two decade involve in increasing their nuclear arsenal and arms race that has consumed on vast scale scarce resources that could be used for non-military, welfare purposes.
