Tipping point in West Asia

Tipping point in West Asia

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1. Rakesh Sood, a former diplomat, has analyses the reasons for US withdrawal from JCPOA and its impact on west Asia.

Important Analysis

2. After Arab Spring, longstanding Israeli-Palestinian conflict is over shadowed by a series of events, both Internal and External.

• The fight against the Islamic State and its offshoots which was began with Iraq;
• The Syrian conflict which pulled the U.S., Russia, Iran and Turkey into it;
• Renewed tension between Israel and Iran across the Golan Heights;
• The civil war in Yemen where the involvement of Saudi Arabia and Iran has heightened tensions, exposing old regional fault lines; and
• Recently, US withdrawal from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with Iran.

3. After the US withdrawal from deal, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif visited Beijing, Moscow and Brussels to salvage the deal.
4. In an address to Iranian officials, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said he expected the E-3 (France, UK and Germany), Russia and China to take up the matter in the UN Security Council
5. He advised E-3 to stop criticism of Iran’s missile tests and regional behaviour and ensure concrete economic guarantees.
6. A summit at sofia is held where EU leaders directed

• European Commission to activate the Blocking Statute which forbids European companies from complying with the extra-territorial effects of U.S. sanctions.
• European Investment Bank to set up a special purpose vehicle to protect European companies’ investments in Iran.

7.However, the signs are not promising as large European companies cannot  afford U.S. sanctions;

• Total and Airbus are already pulling out of their multibillion dollar deals.

8. In 1996, US legislation imposes similar extra-territorial sanctions on companies engaging with Cuba. Then EU took off the assets of U.S. companies in Europe, equivalent to the penalties imposed on European companies. Eventually, the stand-off was resolved by introducing a waiver.
9. The difference is that in 1996, the Clinton administration was sympathetic to the EU stand but in 2018, the Trump administration is prepared to be tougher.
10. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s unveiled a number of conditions for Iran to fulfill for any further scope for dialogue and diplomacy

• A permanent end to uranium enrichment,
• Unfettered access for the inspectors,
• End to missile proliferation,
• Ending support to Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthi rebels (Yemen), Shia militias (Iraq) and Taliban and
• Complete withdrawal from Syria.

11. European countries also wanted to curb Iran’s missile proliferation and testing and extend nuclear enrichment restrictions beyond the 15-year timeframe set by the JCPOA.
12. But the US wanted to scrap the present JCPOA and push Iran to negotiate a new deal under pressure of stronger sanctions while EU wanted to preserve the JCPOA and build upon it.
13. Reason for Signing of JCPOA by Obama Administration

• Post-Arab Spring, Barack Obama felt that the U.S.’s West Asia policy of dual containment  (of Iran and Iraq) served Israeli and Saudi interests but restricted American options in the region.
• It was assumed that sanctions relief would strengthen the moderate elements in Iran represented by President Hassan Rouhani, and consequently increasing U.S. diplomatic options.
• Also Obama administration had realized that Iran had successfully accelerated its uranium enrichment programme after the slowdown caused by the Stuxnet attack in 2009.
• US became cautious for any war and regime change after the experience of Libiya, Iraq and Afghanistan.

14 Current accusation against Iran is similar to August 2002 when US made the case for a pre-emptive strike against Iraq. In March the following year, the U.S. invaded Iraq. US said that

• Saddam Hussein was a leading sponsor of terrorism,
• He was involved in nuclear programme,
• He had oppressed his people who deserved a life of dignity and freedom and
• He was behaving like bully seeking regional domination.

15. Saudi Arabia and Israel had applauded US decision to invade Iraq in 2002. They also welcome current decision of US to dismantle the JCPOA. Reasons are

• Since 2015, Saudi Arabia has been engaged in a costly adventure in Yemen heightening tensions with Iran.
• In Syria, Iran has built up its presence by bringing in Shia militias and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisers to support the Syrian army, leading to growing tensions with Israel.

16. Iran does not want to be accused of killing the JCPOA. It would be difficult for US to justify going to war with Iran when it is in full compliance with JCPOA.