Türkiye expands regional influence by blending Islamism and pragmatism

Source: The post Türkiye expands regional influence by blending Islamism and pragmatism has been created, based on the article “Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman foreign policy” published in “The Hindu” on 11 June 2025. Türkiye expands regional influence by blending Islamism and pragmatism.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2-International Relations-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: Türkiye, under President Erdogan, blends Islamist-leaning policies with NATO commitments. This strategy has expanded its role across West Asia and the Caucasus. However, economic instability and authoritarian trends pose serious domestic challenges.

Historical Backdrop and Policy Shifts

1. From Ataturk to NATO Partnership: The Republic of Türkiye, established in 1923, embraced secularism and peaceful diplomacy. After WWII, Türkiye joined the Western bloc and became a key NATO ally due to its strategic location across the Black Sea, Mediterranean, and West Asia.
2. Erdogan’s Initial Focus on Stability: The AKP came to power in 2002 after prolonged political and economic instability. Erdogan prioritized economic reforms and Western integration. He built strong ties with the U.S. and sought EU membership, projecting Türkiye as a loyal ally.
3. Foreign Policy Shift Post-Arab Spring: The Arab Spring in the early 2010s marked a change. Erdogan saw protests as a path to revive regional influence by backing Islamist movements and aligning with popular uprisings in the Arab world.

Ideological Roots and Regional Ambitions

1. Ottoman Legacy of Islamic Unity: Sultan Hamid II’s doctrine of Ittihad-i Islam aimed to unite Muslims against Western powers. This legacy influenced Türkiye’s modern Islamists, who advocated closer ties with Muslim nations and resistance to Western dominance.
2. Islamist Rise through AKP: Erdogan, a former leader in the Virtue Party, founded the AKP after Islamist parties were banned. His 2002 victory brought Islamists to power and gradually aligned foreign policy with Erbakan’s vision of Islamic solidarity.
3. Support for Islamist Movements: Türkiye backed the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, anti-Assad forces in Syria, and Islamist factions in Libya after the fall of Gaddafi, aiming to expand its regional reach through ideological partners.

Blending Islamism with Strategic Caution

1. Maintaining NATO and Western Ties: Despite ideological shifts, Türkiye remained a NATO member and host to U.S. military bases. Erdogan avoided rupturing Western ties while asserting regional influence.
2. Calculated Moves in Conflict Zones: In Syria, Türkiye protected HTS and created buffer zones, balancing pressure from Russia. In Libya, it supported the Tripoli-based Islamist government while managing competing interests.
3. Smart Diplomacy and Defense Deals: Türkiye supported Azerbaijan in the 2023 war against Armenia using Turkish drones. It also sold drones to Ukraine, avoided Russian sanctions, and bought S400s from Russia. Erdogan backed Sweden and Finland’s NATO entry to ease U.S. tensions.

Expanding Strategic Reach

1. Stronger Presence in West Asia: Türkiye’s military base in Qatar and its stance near the Israeli border reflect growing presence in the Gulf. HTS’s 2024 takeover of Damascus enhanced its profile in Syria.
2. Role in the Caucasus and South Asia: Türkiye helped Azerbaijan defeat Armenia, a Russian ally. While Türkiye supports Pakistan, its role in South Asia remains marginal.
3. Balancing Multiple Rivalries: Though ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE have improved, trust is limited. Türkiye continues to balance Russian and Western concerns in the Caucasus and Black Sea.

Internal Pressures and Strategic Risks

1. Economic Decline and Centralization: Türkiye faces hyperinflation, currency depreciation, and rising unrest. Erdogan has centralized power, turned the system into an executive presidency, and suppressed opposition.
2. Growing Authoritarianism: Key opposition figures like Istanbul’s mayor have been arrested. Erdogan cannot run in 2028 under the current Constitution, creating political uncertainty.
3. Uncertain Strategic Payoff: Despite tactical wins abroad, instability in Syria and Libya, fragile Gulf ties, and domestic vulnerabilities challenge Türkiye’s long-term regional ambitions.

Question for practice:

Discuss how Türkiye balances its Islamist foreign policy with its commitments as a NATO member.