Ukraine imbroglio can give the Global South a chance to claim a place at the high table of global diplomacy

Source– The post is based on the article “Ukraine imbroglio can give the Global South a chance to claim a place at the high table of global diplomacy” published in The Indian Express on 16th November 2022.

Syllabus: GS2- International relations

Relevance: Russia and Ukraine war

News- The article explains the events and reasons for prolonged conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It also explains the position of India and scope for the global south toi have negotiated a solution of the conflict.

What are some facts related to war?

War between Russia and Ukraine is still going on. There are no prospects for global diplomacy to end the war.

There seems less chance of victory of one side over another or negotiated solution.

On eastern front, Ukraine has succeeded in pushing Russia back. But, new fronts are opening at sea, in air, cyber space and in random bombardment of targets far away from the actual fighting.

The Security Council stays paralysed. Its Resolutions on the Ukraine war are vetoed by major powers.

What are the objectives of both parties in the war?

Objectives of the belligerents keep evolving as the war unfolds. The initial objective of Russia was to neutralise Ukraine and make it a buffer between NATO and its own territory, and protect the interests of the Russian minorities of Ukraine. It has now evolved into territorial annexation. Ukrainian objectives are total defeat of Russia, war reparations to be paid by it and regime change in Moscow.

The two objectives are totally incompatible.

Why has war in Ukraine become protracted?

The reasons for prolonged war are strategic depth of the belligerents, diffuse targets, incompatible war objectives, and the induction of third parties with a stake in keeping hostilities alive.

The additional factor that is responsible for prolonging conflict is the nuclear option, available to both sides. This has created a balance of terror.

What are the impacts of war?

Vast sums of tax-payers money are being diverted into the military-industrial complex and proxy war of NATO.

There is a steep rise in prices of essential commodities. Inflation has hit all across the globe but its impact is asymmetric. The poor suffer relatively more.

It has created refugee problem. There are 6 million UKrainian refugees spread over Europe.

What  is the Indian position on war?

The Indian position has been consistent. It is asking for an immediate cessation of hostilities and the start of negotiations. India has reiterated the country’s commitment to global governance. It has struck a delicate balance between the belligerents.

Modi message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that “now is not the era for war” and his call for immediate cessation of hostilities at the G20 reiterate the Indian position.

India’s neutrality in western capitals is perceived as a pursuit of its narrow self-interest rather than a serious global policy option.

What is the scope for the global south to end the conflict?

The protracted war in Ukraine has provided the Global South an opportunity to claim a place at the high table of global diplomacy.

An initiative by the South, possibly led by Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, working jointly with Turkey, and with the implicit support of India and China, can offer to broker a deal. It can be  operated through the United Nations General Assembly.