Ukraine invasion and the great geopolitical reset

Context: Article explains the global dynamics after Russia-Ukraine war.

Major wars have significant consequences for the internal and international politics of the combatant nations. For instance, Indo-Pak war of 1971:

• Liberated Bangladesh
• Altered balance of power between Delhi and Islamabad
• New Pakistani Constitution in 1973 to democratize a nation that was dominated by the Army.

However, in 1977 the army made a decisive comeback when General Zia-Ul-Haq seized power. He accelerated Pakistan’s nuclear weapon program and institutionalized a strategy of cross-border terrorism against India.

Similarly, other great wars were also not without consequences;

Consequences of wars between great powers

The Napoleonic wars led to:

• Start of the Concert of Europe that limited local conflicts
• Sustained a regional balance of power for a century.

The First World War led to:

• Collapse of the Ottoman and the Austro-Hungarian empires
• Created new nations in Europe
• Boosted nationalism in the non-Western world

The Second World War led to:

• Defeat of fascism and the rise of the US and USSR.
• Accelerate the decolonisation of the global South.

Cold War led to:

• The defeat of Communism
• Breakup of the Soviet Union
• Setting the political stage for economic globalization.

Can the Russian war against Ukraine turn into a global war?

Presently, Biden has said that the US will not fight Russia in Ukraine. French President Emmanuel Macron has said that Europe is “not at war” with Russia.

However, Russia has begun to bombard the western part of Ukraine that borders NATO. Putin has signaled that the use of nuclear weapons is not off the table. This could lead to the sharpening of the conflict.

Will Ukraine’s invasion produce fundamental changes in the international system?

Presently, Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine is triggering some major geopolitical changes across the world. Such as:

New dynamism in the great power triangle between the US, Russia, and China:

• Earlier the US hoped to distance Russia from China and focus all of America’s energies on the Indo-Pacific.
• Now, the US has reached out to China — to restrain Russia before the invasion.
• China has provided “rock-solid” support to Moscow. However, it is under some pressure to balance between Russia and the West due to its deep economic interdependence with the US and Europe.

Restoration of US primacy amongst the great powers by show of strategic unity by the West.

American disciplining of Europe: Especially Germany, where soft power has given way to rearmament.

EU’s Russia dilemma due to dependence on Russia in the energy domain. To reduce this dependence, America is reaching out to Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela to fill the gap.

Adapting Asia:

• Japan is rethinking its nuclear abstinence.
• South Korea wants to strengthen ties with the US, and explore potential cooperation with the Quad.
• Countries in the ASEAN region are waking up to the dangers of Beijing’s rise.

What should India do?

Use the opportunity to increase its heft in the changing global balance.

More immediately, Delhi should move on a war-footing towards a rapid modernisation and expansion of its domestic defence industrial base to sustain India’s strategic autonomy.

Source: This post is based on the article “Ukraine invasion and the great geopolitical reset” published in Indian Express on 15^th March 2022.