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Source- The post is based on the article “Why Taiwan Strait Matters To India” published in “The Times of India” on 26th June 2023.
Syllabus: GS2- International relations
Relevance- Regional and global; issues impacting strategic interest of India
News- The article explains the possibility of a crisis in Taiwan strait and its implications for India.
What is the possibility of conflict in Taiwan strait?
Conflict is not inevitable. A crisis short of conflict in the Taiwan Strait is a likely possibility. China can utilise a range of grey-zone warfare tactics, from disruption of surface and aerial movement in the strait to an imposed quarantine. It will have geopolitical and economic consequences across the Indo-Pacific.
Today the US no longer has deterrence capability, and the Chinese have formidable economic and military capacities to initiate a crisis.
China would destroy its own economy to seize Taiwan because governments have not always acted rationally where critical interests or feelings are involved.
What will be the implications of the crisis in Taiwan for India?
Any disruption in the general area of Taiwan will have severe direct and second-order effects. It could have an impact on India’s geopolitical and economic security.
Half of India’s trade flows to our east. Disruption in global shipping beyond the Malacca Strait could have a crippling impact on our exports.
If shipping is disrupted, it will have a consequential impact on supply chains. Key segments of Indian industry, including important export sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics, are heavily dependent on the supply chain. Thus, It will impact Indian exports to western markets.
The possible disruptions in semiconductor supplies could potentially paralyse industry, especially services, from logistics supply chains to e-commerce platforms.
Disruption of submarine cables could impact the flow of data between India and Silicon Valley.
A Rhodium Group study for Western governments in 2022 documented the devastating impact of a Taiwan crisis on productivity, employment and national security.
What is the way forward for India to limit the possibilities of conflict in Taiwan strait?
India urgently needs to undertake a comprehensive analysis of the possibility of crisis in Taiwan strait. It should comprehensively cover all sectors of economy and society.
The objective should be to identify potential impacts of the disruption in the Taiwan Strait area and develop options to mitigate the crisis.
India should put this issue on the agenda in consultations with key partners. There will be differences, but we might agree on several points towards stabilising the situation.
India’s multi-aligned approach to foreign policy permits it to have conversations with diverse players like Asean, EU, Japan, Republic of Korea and the south Pacific states. They have vital stakes in that region.
The Global South’s respect for India could be harnessed for peace. A Taiwan crisis could impact the economically vulnerable Global South the hardest. India could build awareness in the Global South about the consequences of such a crisis.
