Without data, the government’s policy prescriptions are just guesswork

Source– The post is based on the article “Without data, the government’s policy prescriptions are just guesswork” published in “The Indian Express” on 8th May 2023.

Syllabus: GS2- Government policies and interventions

What are issues with data collection in India?

India has always conducted a single decennial Census between 1881 and 2011, including in 1941 at the height of World War II.

HCE surveys that provides data on consumption of food and non-food items were carried out every five years or less — in 1972-73, 1977-78, 1983, 1987-88, 1993-94, 1999-2000, 2004-05, 2009-10 and 2011-12.

However, there’s been no Census after 2011. The National Statistical Office did an HCE survey in 2017-18, but its findings were not released.

There are claims and counterclaims about poverty levels without any real data on consumption by different classes of the population.

Even the CMIE’s longitudinal Consumer Pyramids Household Survey only tracks monthly values and not actual quantities consumed of some 153 items.

The attitude of the government agencies responsible for undertaking the Census and HCE surveys is problematic.

What is one major example highlighting the unreasonableness of statistical exercises undertaken in India?

The unreasonableness of the statistical exercise can be highlighted through statistics relating to milk consumption and official production estimates.

As per 2011-12 HCE survey, the monthly per capita consumption of milk was 4.33 litres for rural and 5.42 litres for urban India. These translated into a daily per capita of 149 gm and 186 gm respectively or a simple average of 167.5 gm.

The 167.5 gm average consumption was well below the daily per capita milk production estimate of 289 gm for 2011-12 by the department of animal husbandry and dairying.

The difference can partly be attributed to the HCE survey covering only milk consumed by households. It excludes the milk consumed by businesses such as tea shops and hotels.

But even if such consumption was taken at 50% over and above that by households, it would add up to just over 251 gm.

The gap between the survey-based per capita household consumption and estimated per capita production has increased over times.

The production data on milk shows the country’s milk production has an average annual growth rate of 6.1%. During the same period, however, average liquid milk sales of cooperative dairies have grown by just 3.6 per cent per year.

Production data is not reflected in consumption. There is a mismatch between supply grow and demand growth.

What is the importance of the census?

The Census isn’t a mere population enumeration exercise. It contains information on everything from housing conditions, inter and intra-state migration flows, gender, age, linguistic and religious profiles. It is vital for effective policy formulation and economic analysis.