Will the Indian Ocean Dipole save the monsoon?”

Source: The post is based on the article “Will the Indian Ocean Dipole save the monsoon?” published in “The Times of India” on 29th June 2023.

Syllabus: GS 1 – Indian geography

News: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a normal monsoon despite forecasts of an El Nino event. El Nino typically leads to a deficit monsoon, but this occurs only around 60% of the time. 

What factors contribute to the complex relationship between El Nino and the monsoon?

El Nino flavours: Every El Nino is not the same. They differ in terms of where the warm waters appear in the tropical Pacific. An El Nino with warming around the Dateline is referred to as a Dateline El Nino or a Central Pacific El Nino. It is considered to have a larger negative impact on the monsoon, but an exception was 2005 El Nino. An El Nino with stronger warming around the central Pacific is called Canonical El Nino. 

Indian Ocean Dipole: it is thought to have mitigated the impact of El Nino in 1997. But the cause-and-effect relationship between monsoon and Indian Ocean Dipole is not clearly understood.

Atlantic Nino: It is a similar east-west anomaly pattern in the tropical Atlantic. It also influences the monsoon.

What are the limitations of forecasting models?

Models cannot reliably forecast Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Nino. So, their potential role in the evolution of monsoons this season is not completely known.

Models predicting El Nino cannot confidently forecast exactly where the warming will be or how strong the warming will be in the early part of an El Nino event. But early indicators suggest that the El Nino of 2023 may evolve to become a Canonical El Nino.

Why has the significance of seasonal total rainfall diminished?

Every aspect of the monsoon has been disturbed the global warming. Even a deficit monsoon comes with large-scale extreme rainfall events and heavy rainfall events are increasing over the dry regions of north-western India.

What compensations could occur this season to reduce the impacts of El Nino?

The Arabian Sea has warmed since January by almost 1.5°C which could offset the impact.

Other factors which may compensate are the Eurasian snow cover and the warm Arctic. 

GS Paper 2

Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi (Amendment) Ordinance, 2023: Manifestly arbitrary, clearly unconstitutional

Source: The post is based on the article “Manifestly arbitrary, clearly unconstitutional” published in “The Hindu” on 29th June 2023. 

Syllabus: GS2- Issues pertaining to federalism 

Relevance: Constitutional issues related to NCT of Delhi 

News:  The article explains the issues related to the current tussle between the Delhi government and the central government for control over service. 

What is the issue? 

In 2015, Aam Aadmi Party won the Delhi Legislative Assembly elections, The central government issued a notification taking control over services in the National Capital Territory. This sparked a long legal battle between the Delhi government and the central government.  

In May 2023, the Court ruled decisively in favour of the Delhi government. Within days, the central government issued an ordinance amending the Government of National Capital Territory of Delhi Act of 1991.  

Through this ordinance, the central government wants to undo the Court’s judgement. It deprived the Delhi Legislative Assembly from enacting laws pertaining to services within the NCT. 

What are the justifications offered by the central government in favour of the ordinance? 

Delhi’s status as the national capital requires a “balancing” of interests between the Delhi government and the central government.  

Article 239AA of the Constitution authorises Parliament to pass laws in areas that fall within the exclusive domain of the States. One of these fields belongs to “services”. 

What are issues related to central government ordinance? 

The ordinance violates and undermines the core principles of democracy, representative governance, and a responsive administration.  Any functioning modern polity requires the performance of a vast range of daily administrative functions.  

Violates the triple chain of accountability: In its judgement in May 2023, the Court explicitly recognised this by formulating the concept of the “triple chain of accountability”.

Note: The triple chain of accountability is integral to representative democracy. Civil servants are accountable to the cabinet. The cabinet is accountable to the Legislative Assembly. The Legislative Assembly is accountable to the electorate.  

Any action that impacts this “triple chain of accountability” undermines the core constitutional principle of representative government.  The Delhi Services Ordinance impacts this triple chain of accountability by taking away the services from the jurisdiction of the Delhi government.

Impacts the degree of flexibility: Delhi’s “special status” is already recognised in Article 239AA. Article 239AA already creates the balance between the interests of representative governance, and national interest in the national capital.

Article 239AA also grants power to Parliament to pass laws, with respect to Delhi, under any of the fields that are otherwise reserved to the States.

The purpose of this is to maintain a degree of flexibility. Unforeseeable circumstances might require Parliament to pass specific legislation.

The Delhi Services Ordinance does not respond to any specific circumstance. It takes away the Delhi government’s power over services in all circumstances.

Indeed, the ordinance articulates no specific or concrete reason for its enactment. It only mentions the need to “balance” interests. This is illogical as that balancing has already been achieved within the Constitution. 

GS Paper 3

Central bank credibility is key to achieving a Goldilocks economy

Source: The post is based on the article “Central bank credibility is key to achieving a Goldilocks economy” published in “Mint” on 29th June 2023. 

Syllabus: GS 3 – Indian Economy 

News: To uphold its credibility, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) should strive to achieve its 4 percent inflation target while accurately estimating India’s real equilibrium rate of interest. (The RBI decided to leave the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent). 

Why is central bank credibility important? 

Central bank credibility is important, particularly in steering an economy after a shock such as a financial crisis or a pandemic.  

Central bank credibility makes disinflation more manageable, and the interest rate increases needed to stabilize inflation expectations are less severe. 

Why is there a two-percentage point band on either side of the target of 4.0 percent? 

It ensures that the RBI does not overreact to the short-term inflationary pressures of temporary supply shocks and maintains a medium to long term view while conducting monetary policy.  

While it gives the RBI operational freedom in the short run, the mandate over the medium term is to keep inflation near 4 percent.  

Sticking to this mandate ensures monetary policy credibility. 

What will be the impact of RBI’s efforts to bring inflation close to the target of 4.0 percent? 

Maintaining the current level of interest rates for an extended period will impact economic activity negatively during a period when the Indian economy is growing at a steady rate, neither too fast nor too slow.  

The consecutive increases in the repo rate have brought the real interest rate close to equilibrium levels and have also anchored inflation expectations.  

However, as anticipated inflation declines, it is important to ensure that the real repo rate does not rise excessively. 

Why is estimating the equilibrium real interest rate challenging? 

The ideal real interest rate in an economy depends on various interconnected factors, including savings behaviour, investment activity, demographics, and potential growth rate. 

However, estimating the equilibrium real interest rate is challenging as it is not directly observable. Additionally, the estimate of the equilibrium real interest rate can change over time.  

Economists from the Bank of International Settlements have suggested that the central bank’s actions can influence the real equilibrium interest rate, which is commonly believed to be beyond its control.

Mahalanobis in the era of Big Data and AI

Source: The post is based on the article “Mahalanobis in the era of Big Data and AI” published in the “The Hindu” on 29th June 2023. 

Syllabus: GS3- Science and Technology 

Relevance: Issue related to use and regulation of Big data and AI 

News: The article explains how Mahalanobis would have responded to challenges created by Big data and AI. 

Why does India need a Mahalanobis view today?

With the advent of the Internet, there has been a flood of data. This is widely perceived as the era of Big Data. The recent developments in artificial intelligence are also transforming our lives and lifestyles. AI is threatening to replace millions of jobs without creating alternatives. It is also aiding in spreading disinformation. 

During COVID-19, there were numerous contradictory projections. The country’s COVID-19 response could have been much stronger if the data is handled effectively.  

How Mahalanobis might respond to the challenges faced by the world today? 

Mahalanobis also encountered a Big Data problem when his large-scale surveys yielded lots of data.  Mahalanobis persuaded the government and succeeded in procuring the first two digital computers of the country at his Indian Statistical Institute. It ushered in the age of computers in India.  

Mahalanobis would have embraced the power of AI in enhancing human productivity. He could possibly be able to lead Big Data analyses considerably better than anybody else.  

Mahalanobis successfully introduced the revolutionary concept of built-in cross-checks into his surveys. These cross-checks can be instrumental in regulating AI. 

Mahalanobis envisioned statistics as a new technology for increasing the efficiency of human effort.  

Even today, someone like Mahalanobis, could be the best person to handle tons of data. He can use technologies for human welfare and national development. 

Seven products from Uttar Pradesh get Geographical Indication tag

Source: The post is based on the article “Seven products from Uttar Pradesh get Geographical Indication tag” published in The Hindu on 28th June 2023. 

What is the News? 

The Geographical Indications Registry in Chennai has given tags to seven different products from Uttar Pradesh. 

Which Seven products from Uttar Pradesh got Geographical Indication tag? 

Amroha Dholak: It is a musical instrument crafted from natural wood, specifically mango, jackfruit, and teakwood. These types of wood are carved into hollow blocks which are then fitted with animal skin, typically goatskin, to form the instrument. 

Mahoba Gaura Patthar Hastashlip: It is a form of stone craft that originates from the Mahoba region. This craft utilizes a distinctive and delicate stone known as “Pyro Flight Stone” which is renowned for its radiant white color. The stone is carefully cut into multiple pieces, which are then skillfully crafted into various artistic items. 

Mainpuri Tarkashi: It is primarily brass wire inlay work on wood. It was mainly used for khadaous (wooden sandals) since leather was considered unclean. 

Sambhal Horn Craft: The raw materials used in the production of Sambhal’s horn and bone products are sourced from deceased animals.  

Baghpat Home Furnishings: Baghpat and Meerut have a longstanding reputation for their distinctive handloom home furnishing products and cotton running fabric production, with Baghpat being particularly known for its use of frame looms in weaving. 

Barabanki Handloom Product: Barabanki district is renowned for its handloom fabric knitting, catering to the significant demand for cotton clothing and traditional handloom products. 

Kalpi Handmade Paper: Kalpi has a rich history as a hub for handmade paper manufacturing, with records indicating that Munnalal ‘Khaddari’, a follower of Mahatma Gandhi, introduced this craft to the region in the 1940s.

Union Minister of State for Panchayati Raj releases Report on Panchayat Development Index at National Workshop on Panchayat Development Index

Source: The post is based on the article “Union Minister of State for Panchayati Raj releases Report on Panchayat Development Index at National Workshop on Panchayat Development Index” published in PIB on 28th June 2023

What is the News?

The Ministry of Panchayati Raj has released a ‘Panchayat Development Index’ (PDI) has been formulated by the Centre to evaluate different indicators responsible for ensuring targeted development in villages.

About the Panchayat Development Index

The Index will be a compact statistical tool to measure and monitor development at panchayat level. On a pilot basis, data from four districts in Maharashtra — Pune, Sangli, Satara and Solapur — was compiled.

Function: The Ministry of Panchayati Raj is anchoring the process of Localization of Sustainable Development Goals (LSDGs) in PRIs. To this end, it is bringing together different stakeholders at one forum imbibing the spirit of the ‘Whole of Government & Whole of Society’ approach.

The Panchayat Development Index is a logical combination of various steps taken by the Ministry for years. It will tell what happens to the money that is spent on development, its outcome and what needs to be focused upon.

Aim: To measure the incremental progress towards the achievement of LSDGs through Panchayats.

Scoring method: PDI Committee interacted with 19 States on their efforts to develop LIFs for implementation of LSDGs; a participatory and theme-based planning process is adopted for development.

The PDI ranks panchayats on the basis of scores, and categorises them into four grades. Those with scores under 40% fall in grade D, 40-60% in grade C, 60-75% in grade B, 75 to 90% in category A, while those scoring above 90% will be categorised as A+.

Themes: The nine themes taken into account are poverty-free and enhanced livelihood in the village, healthy village, child-friendly village, water-sufficient village, clean and green village, village with self-sufficient infrastructure, socially just and socially secured villages, village with good governance, and women-friendly village.

Applications of the PDI: States/ UTs can use the PDI for Panchayati Raj Awards and emphasise on adopting a data-driven and evidence-based approach towards developmental activities. Once India achieve the Panchayat Development Index (PDI), India will be able to create villages that have all amenities like a city.

What are the findings of the pilot study of PDI?

The pilot study has shown how no attention has been paid on certain themes. The pilot study showed 70 per cent of the panchayats in the four districts of Maharashtra are in Category C, while 27 per cent are in Category B. Around 30 per cent of panchayats are in grade B in being clean and green villages, and 30 panchayats in grade C when it comes to being women-friendly.

‘Green credits’ scheme launched for eco push

Source: The post is based on the following articles

“Centre plans ‘market’ scheme to promote sustainable living” published in The Hindu on 29th June 2023.

“‘Green credits’ scheme launched for eco push” published in the Business Standard on 29th June 2023.

What is the News?

The Environment Ministry has issued a draft notification detailing a proposed ‘Green Credits Scheme’.

About the Green Credits Scheme

A Green Credit Programme is proposed to be launched at the national level.

Aim:

-To leverage a competitive market-based approach for Green Credits thereby incentivising voluntary environmental actions of various stakeholders.

-To encourage private sector industries and companies as well as other entities to meet their existing obligations by taking actions which are able to converge with activities relevant to generating or buying Green Credits.

Tradable: These credits, through a yet-to-be-specified mechanism, can also be traded for money.

Focus sectors: The notification lists out eight sectors, or activities, that can qualify for generating credits.

They include 1) tree plantation-based green credit to promote activities for increasing green cover through tree plantation and related activities; 2) water-based green credit to promote water conservation, water harvesting and water use efficiency/savings, including treatment and reuse of wastewater; 3) sustainable agriculture-based green credit to promote natural and regenerative agricultural practices and land restoration to improve productivity, 4) soil health and nutritional value of food produced; and 4) waste management-based green credit to promote sustainable and improved practices.

5) Air pollution reduction, 6) mangrove conservation and restoration-based green credit to promote measures for the conservation and restoration of mangroves, 7) Ecomark-based green credit encourages manufacturers to obtain eco-mark labels for their goods and services and 8) sustainable building and infrastructure-based Green Credit encourage the construction of buildings and other infrastructure using sustainable technologies and materials.

Priority: The government’s immediate priority was to “create supply (of green credits)” via voluntary actions and then “create demand by bringing in laws or rules that will incentivise companies and organisations to buy credits that can then be traded.”

Benefits: The scheme will incentivise a host of activities including afforestation programmes, water conservation, waste management and remedying air pollution by allowing individuals and organisations to generate ‘green credits”.

Concerns by experts: Unlike carbon markets, where only greenhouse gas emissions were traded, the Green Credit Scheme was “trickier” as it involved accounting for a wide range of actions. There are a few examples globally but nowhere in the world is such a wide range of actions considered.

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