India in 2023: The challenge and opportunity of being the most populous country

Source: The post is based on the following articles

“UN projections on population underline opportunities and challenges, addressing which will require long-term vision and imagination” published in the Indian Express on 12^th July 2022.

“Sonalde Desai writes | India in 2023: The challenge and opportunity of being the most populous country” published in the Indian Express on 12^th July 2022.

Syllabus: GS 1 – Population and associated issues.

Relevance: About the recent UNPD report on population.

News: The United Nations Population Division (UNPD) released a new set of population projections on July 11, World Population Day. These projections show that India will become the most populous country in 2023, earlier than the year 2027, as expected.

What is the reason for such an advanced projection?

According to the UNPD, a sustained total fertility rate of 2.1 is necessary for a country to achieve population stability. The latest National Family Health Survey puts this figure at 2. In other words, India is on course to achieving population stability if it maintains this rate in the next few years.

However, India will overtake China because China’s fertility is lower than anticipated. Following years of stringent population control, in 2016, China relaxed its one-child policy to allow two children. Then, in 2021, it was further relaxed to allow a third child.

However, Chinese couples seem to have adjusted to life with a single child, and the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in China is barely 1.16.

What are the challenges associated with the increasing population?

For the next 25 years, globally, one in five working-age persons will live in India. However, a sizeable working-age population does not mean many workers.

Low women participation: The size of India’s labour force is constrained by the absence of women from the workforce. The absence of women in factories, the transportation sector and skilled blue-collar work is huge.

Only about 30% of women aged 15 and above are employed either in wage work on family farms and businesses.

Population distribution between states: With fertility transition beginning in southern states and slowly spreading to central India, future workers will come from the central part of the country.

Challenges in interstate migration: With industrial growth concentrated in coastal regions and the bulk of India’s workers coming from central areas, India will also need to figure out how to deal with interstate migration.

Changing inter-generational relations: In 2047, a large proportion of the Indian population will be of working ages. However, after 2050, the older population will rise sharply; by 2100, about 30 per cent of the Indian population will be 65 and above.

This will make it difficult for Indian parents to rely on their traditional mode of survival, living with one or more sons.

What should be done?

Firstly, with declining fertility and rising education, many Indian women would like to work if they can find suitable jobs. Making occupations female-friendly is essential if India needs to reap a gender dividend.

Secondly, the youth will have to be equipped with skills that are indispensable to the knowledge economy. India needs to ensure that the education system in central India is improved so that they can create a proper workforce.

Thirdly, India needs better policies to integrate and support migrant workers in their new homes if India wants to adjust to changing demographic realities.

Fourthly, India must develop more robust systems of old-age support. This should include a combination of private savings, public social security programmes and an increase in retirement age, allowing the older population to be economically active for a longer time.

In addition, since most of the elderly will be women, India will also need to increase women’s control over family’s savings, land and residence.